Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3642.00 | Opening Print: 3638.75 |
| Low: 3612.75 | High 3632.75 |
| Volume: 100,000 | Low: 3626.25 |
| ES Settlement 3627.00 | |
| Total Volume 618,000 |
S&P 500 Futures Recap – November 27, 2020
S&P 500 Futures: Post-Thanksgiving Chop
After trading in a 39.25 handle extended overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Friday’s cash session at 3638.75, up 10.50 handles, traded the daily high of 3632.75 in the opening hour and then sold down to 3626.25 for the daily low made just after 11:30 CT. In an abbreviated session, the S&Ps would go on to settle at 12:15 at 3637.00, up 9.75 handles or +0.27% on total volume of just 618K which includes the extra Globex volume. In terms of price action, it was all about selling the open and buying the 11:30 low.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
The Black Friday MIM was small as one would expect. As the market bounced at 12:30 (note: early close) the MIM began to pair off into a small buy at 12:55
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid Corner:
We can’t look at the US today since we won’t have accurate data until Thursday due to the four-day shutdown. That also affects the world data since we are the largest contributor. Over the weekend the daily deaths dropped about 50 but cases rose about 2,000. That number should change as the US comes back online this week.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – chart of the day – Copper – Nov 30, 2020
Copper (MAR)
Please note: The Copper contract rolled over on Nov 29, 2020 to the Mar 21 contract.
We gave a buy signal early Nov and went long Copper at 2.98.
Our initial upside target was 3.34 then followed by 3.60.
Not all technical indicators lined up, and we took profit once Copper reached 3.34.
However, as we can see Copper moved higher, and we are now looking for a good entry level to go short.
On the chart you can see that the up move is still strong.
We continue to stand aside but like to short Copper on an intraday close below 3.30.
While we are discussing the metals:
Gold (FEB)
Gold contract rolled over on Nov 29, 2020 to the Feb 21 contract.
We continue to see weakness, and Gold reached 1789 but is still trying to find a bottom.
For now, in order to see a bounce Gold needs to hold above 1765.
A close below 1765 indicates another leg lower.
Silver (MAR)
Silver contract rolled over on Nov 29, 2020 to the Mar 21 contract.
Here too is seems to be too early for a low.
We tried to go long last week with a tight stop, which has been stopped out.
Silver needs to hold above 21.85 to see a bounce and to get a confirmation that it has reached a tradable low.
In case Silver closes end of day below 21.85 that would confirm another leg lower.
In conclusion:
Copper (MAR) needs an intraday close below 3.30 to go short.
Gold (FEB) needs to hold above 1765 to confirm the low.
Silver (MAR) needs to hold above 21.85 to confirm the low.
We offer a free 14-day trial to the Global Macro Technical Report which is published three weekly.
The report covers: Global Indices, Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Soft Commodities, Currencies, and Bitcoin.
For more info and how to sign up for the free trial visit our website:
Our View
Last Trading Day Of November
Stocks are on track to close out November with big gains; the Dow is up 13% and if nothing bad happens today it’s on track for its largest monthly gain since 1987. The S&P, that closed at a record high, is up 11.50% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is up12% but the biggest winners were the small-cap stocks of the Russell 2000 which is up a whopping 20.6% on the month. The gains have been gigantic but my question is … can they keep going? I think they can but I think it’s best to follow the daily pattern of selling the early rallies and buying the pullbacks. No reason to make any mistakes going into the end of the day. One of the things I am trying to do is ‘trade less and pick my stops and times better’, it’s way less wear and tear.
Our view, as you can see by the VIX chart above. while the indices were rallying sharply this month the VIX took a ‘beating’. At its low last Friday, it traded 19.53 and 20.48. Does this signal a holiday slowdown? Based on the last several sessions the answer is yes! The average RTH ES daily range has slipped to 16.92 handles and the 5-day ES RTH range is down to 27.10. Both are far off the 40 to 50+ handle averages we were seeing 3 or 4 weeks ago. And for those of you that think Globex is better, the average night session 3-day range is now down to 24.75 handles and the 5-day average is 28.9 handles. Our lean, I think you stick with the patterns, sell the early rallies and buy the 10:30 i.e. midmorning low for a pop. The rest I’ll have to figure out later.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
No responses yet