Market Review
Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Textbook Taylor CD2 as price successfully tested CD1 Low during RTH Session, at which time this cycle’s rally took firm hold, fulfilling 3705…3 Day Cycle Objective. Range was 43.75 handles on 1.047M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Core cycle objectives have been fulfilled. As such, with price being at all-time highs, there is increased potential for a pullback/decline developing. We’ll mark today’s CD3 as a “wild-card”, as there is plenty of room for downside, should profit-taking unfold. Likewise, there is further upside potential targeting Penetration Levels. There are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3703, initially targets 3713 – 3718 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3703, initially targets 3693 – 3683 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 3 (CD3)
Thanks for reading,
PTGDavid
Polaris Trading Group
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Not even a decent 1.9B to sell can sink this Molly Brown market. The symbol breadth never could develop and there were move symbols with buys and sells at the 15:50 MOC reveal.
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Covid Corner:
Analyzing USA data is still difficult as we need 3 weeks beyond the Thanksgiving week in order to do week over week comparisions like this chart is doing. Next week we will have better data.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – Chart of the Day – Copper – Dec 9, 2020
Copper (MAR)
Copper is stuck in a trading range between 3.45 and 3.55.
We went short last Friday at 3.52 and keep the buy stop at 3.60.
A close below 2.43 is needed to confirm lower targets.
Looking back at the other Metals that we covered last week:
Gold bounced up almost $100 from its last low.
Silver bounced nicely too and Platinum reached last Friday a high of 1093.
In our three weekly GMTT research reports, we update these and many other sectors with trading entry and exit levels.
For more info and how to sign up for a free trial visit our website:
Global Macro Technical Thoughts
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3687.50 | Opening Print: 3677.00 |
| Low: 3664.25 | High 3708.00 |
| Volume: 160,000 | Low: 3676.50 |
| ES Settlement 3701.25 | |
| Total Volume 1.0 M |
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date December 8, 2020
S&P 500 Futures: NQ Up 11 Days In a Row
After trading in a 23.25 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opening Tuesday’s cash session at 3677.00, down 12.75 handles, traded to a morning low of 3676.50 before rallying through the morning up to 3703.25 just before noon. The ES would then trade sideways through the noon hour before buy programs at 1:00 would push the index to 3708.00 for the daily high and the futures would trade sideways to lower for the remainder of the session, settling at 3701.25, up 11.50 handles or +0.38% on total volume of one million contracts. In terms of price action, it was all about buying the open and taking profit at the 1:30 high.
Our View
#ES New All-Time Highs
I traded way better than I called it yesterday. One of my rules is that after a new high the #ES pulls back 30 to 40 handles and at yesterday’s low I think it was 43. I am not going to do a view OP tonight. Tomorrow DoorDash goes public. Analysts are estimating that DoorDash and Airbnb will be valued at $36B and $42B, respectively. This puts each on track for being some of 2020’s largest IPOs. DoorDash makes its debut on the open today and Airbnb lifts off on Thursday morning’s open. I think both sessions could see an increase in both volume and trade.
Our view, sell the early rally, cover on the dip, look for the mid-morning low to get long and look for new highs. Then come back and play the MIM that in most cases sees the NQ sell off going into 3:30 and buy the pullback.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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