Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3667.00 | Opening Print: 3637.50 |
| Low: 3620.75 | High 3657.75 |
| Volume: 170,000 | Low: 3624.75 |
| ES Settlement 3654.00 | |
| Total Volume 1.6 M |
S&P 500 Futures: Small Caps Rise While Major Indices Close Down On The Week
After trading in a 46.25 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Friday’s cash session at 3637.50, down 25.50 handles, traded to a morning high of 3651.50 in the opening hour before selling down to 3624.75 just before noon. This area would serve to attract buyers who would take the wheel and push the index futures higher for the rest of the session as the ESH21 would go on to a 3657.75 high late in the day before settling at 3654.00, down 6.75 handles or 0.18%.
In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was steady at 1.6 million. In terms of the ES’s overall price action, it was all about selling the first hour high and then dip buying the late morning low and holding for the late Friday RIP!!!
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
A fairly subdued MOC on Friday but it was enough to send the 15:50 candle down about 7 points. We should see some decent end of the year MOCs coming in this week.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid Corner:
We are now clearning the fog from the Thanksgiving data fiasco, which to my point has never really been acknowledged or disscussed in the news. We have stablized our normal bad daily data with using moving averages that of course slows down the critical detection of new infections and trends. The CDC doesn’t seem to care, the states don’t seem to care, the press has no clue. Let’s just harp on about masks, don’t get together and celebrate, don’t eat at restaurants and “social distance”. Why don’t we say “stay away 6 feet or better yet 10 feet”?
This is from the Covid Tracking Project site which is a great source of information on covid infections. According to their data, we have 20 states where infections are rising (note that territories are included), 20 states staying the same, and 16 states falling. That does not appear to be a “Thanksgiving-Surge”. A majority of states and territories are either stable or falling.
Above is California, while cases continue to increase, they are doing so at a linear rate.
Germany on the other hand is seeing a resurgence, this is what a surge on top of a surge looks like.
The USA might get there, but we could try and make some changes. Instead of our officials blaming citizen behavior we need to make some real critical infrastructure changes. Improving air exchanges in stores for instance. Watch this video from the Washington Post and you will never want to stand behind someone with a mask again as the video points out that masks blow the aerosols backwards. Next time you are at Target checking out, standing on you six-foot spot look in front, does that person have Covid? As the line moves forward, like a good masked up person keeping social distance, go forward and stand on the very same spot they just were on and comingle some more aerosols. Think. Wear your mask, keep your social bubble as small as possible and stay more than 6 feet apart from anyone not in that bubble. Test often.
Wear your masks!
Stay at least 10 feet behind someone wearing a mask! (Particularly in a checkout line)
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
GMTT – A summary and updated outlook of last weeks Chart of The Day publications – Dec 14, 2020
Last week GMTT covered in “the chart of the day” the following: Wheat, Euro, Copper and XLE.
Let us look how they did and the forecast for this week.
Wheat (MAR) gave a buy signal, and we are now long Wheat from 581.
We expect Wheat to move higher in the near term.
Short term upside targets: 624 then followed by 637.
Suggested sell stop is 595.
The Euro (EUR/USD) is still holding below 1.2220 which is the level needed it needs to trade above to move higher.
As expected, this did not happen, and we can see another pullback.
An intraday close below 1.2050 is the level we are looking for to short EUR/USD.
Copper (MAR) if there is no good close above 3.60, we stick with our forecast for a pullback.
First downside target is 3.43.
XLE is very close to confirming another leg higher, which will still expect to see this week.
To get this confirmed we need a close above 42.20.
The high so far close with a high of 42.08.
Suggesting raising the protective sell stop to 40.02.
In our three weekly GMTT research report we update these sectors and many other sectors with our Thoughts and Trading Entry and Exit Signals.
For more info visit our website and subscribe for a free 14 day-free trial!!
Global Macro Technical Thoughts
Our View
Mid-Month Rebalance And COVID-19 Relief Bill On TAP
There are some folks that think the S&P is going to soar high and there are others that think the up-move is starting to resemble the rally leading up to the 1987 crash. Personally, I am in the camp that says the S&P continues to march higher. Over the weekend two positives occurred; the first, trucks carrying a COVID-19 vaccine for widespread use in the United States pulled out of a Michigan manufacturing plant Sunday and the second, a bipartisan group of lawmakers will unveil a $908 billion coronavirus relief bill on Monday, according to Sen. Joe Manchin. I really believe a COVID-19 relief bill will get passed this week. Both sides of the aisle know that they need to get a bill passed before the holidays or there are going to be a lot of pissed off people out there. It’s 7:30 pm ET Sunday night and the high in the ES is 3678. On the last trading day of October the ES settled at 3264.75, that means the ES has rallied 413.25 handles in 30 sessions. That, my friends, is a giant move.
Our view, if the S&P wants to go higher I want to go for the ride. You may be but I am not here to fight city hall. Our lean, you can sell the open or early rally and buy the early pullback. Step back from the screens at 10:30 or 11:00 and come back and play the MiM in the final hour. The PitBull thinks we could see some type of mid-month rebalance today. 3820 on TAP this week.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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