Market Review
Taylor 3 Day Cycle
Author: David D Dube (a.k.a. PTGDavid)
Website: polaristradinggroup
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Following post-holiday ramp-up during GLOBEX fulfilling 3 Day Cycle Target (4224), a normal CD2 unfolded during RTH Session, as price consolidated throughout the day. The prior range was 33.75 handles on 1.224M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Official start of summer-trading has begun, with traders/investors awaiting Friday’s Jobs Report for the next potential catalyst. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4210, initially targets 4220 – 4225 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4190, initially targets 4180 – 4175 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
Click to view today’s Cycle Day 3 Spreadsheet
Thanks for reading…PTG David
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the TradeChat Room
Market On Close – Negative close on a small buy imbalance
Check out all the Market Closing action in our daily post
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
.
SpyGate: Red bots beat up the green bots during the morning trade
Check out our Daily SpyGate Post
SpyGate is now available free to members of IMPRO and MIM trading room. Join the MiM.
Chart of the Day
S&P 500 Earnings Reports Become One-Way Street for Stocks
Our View
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date June 1, 2021
S&P and Nasdaq; Firm in The First Half of the Day, Weak Late
There is a recurring pattern in the ES and NQ Futures, they rally early in the day and sell-off late in the day. While the S&P fell short of my 4240 call, I continue to believe the Futures will trade that price or higher. Like the markets or not, the big institutional players, or smart money as it’s called, have fully taken advantage of the Fed and the government’s endless stimulus programs by buying the pullbacks. I know the bears are licking their teeth thinking that inflation and a weak bond market will be the beginning of the end but I do not see it. What I see is the beginning of the summer markets and possible weakness in June. We all know the summers are known for less volume and choppy trade but my feeling is if there is a sell-off it comes in late August into October, the bear killer. April showers may bring May showers but October weakness generally leads to new highs.
Despite the rally in the Nasdaq, smart money continues to rotate out of tech and into the small-cap stocks. Year to date the Russell 2000 is up 16.2% while the Nasdaq is up 11.8% and the S&P is up 13.7%. Is that a lot? No, but clearly money continues to move into the smaller cap stocks.
In regards to yesterday’s trade, the ES and NQ were firm early but as the momentum in the Nasdaq dried up the late-day sell programs showed up again. In terms of the marker’s overall tone, the ES closed weak. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was better at 1.3 million.
Our view: I made a mistake yesterday noting getting out of my long ES position. My high sale was 4217 and the high was 4230. I had a lot of opportunities to trade around the position but I sat through the sell-off and traded to buy the early afternoon pullback. The PitBull has encouraged me for years to sell a few into the pops and hope you’re wrong. From the ESs 4230 high to last night’s 4190.75 low the ES has had a 39.75 point pullback. Our lean is to buy the pullbacks and pay attention to the late-day NQ weakness.
As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk free for 30 days.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
No responses yet