Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES   8:30ET September New York Fed services business activity; 10:00ET NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment; 4:00ET
July TIC flows

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  

• Hunter Biden Sues IRS for Alleged Breach of His Privacy
  
• Saudi Arabia is in talks with Tesla about setting up a manufacturing facility in the country
  

Global shares are lower as investors brace for policy decisions from multiple central banks this week. The Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on Wednesday will
be followed by those from the UK, Sweden, Norway and Switzerland on Thursday, followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday. In geopolitics, Iran said a prisoner exchange with the US is expected today, and the country’s funds frozen in South Korea due to US sanctions
will become “fully accessible” today.  Taiwan’s defense ministry urged China to stop “destructive, unilateral action” after reporting a sharp rise in Chinese military activities near the island. Hopes for a U.S.-China summit later in the year were kept alive
by background talks over the weekend.                                       

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fluctuated before turning lower as European markets make new session lows. Futures markets appear comfortable the Fed will at least pause its interest rate rise campaign
on Wednesday. But updated quarterly economic and rate projections from its individual policymakers will map out the remainder of the year and 2024. The United Auto Workers rejected an offer of a 21% raise from Stellantis, signaling the union and Detroit execs
are still far apart. Kevin McCarthy presented a plan to hold off an Oct. 1 US government shutdown for a month, including an 8% temporary spending cut for domestic agencies and a resumption of border wall construction. A House vote on the measure is planned
for Thursday.                                  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 is flat, Dow -0.05%.

Apple makes small gains premarket, with analysts positive about early signs of demand for the latest iPhone. Alteryx (AYX) shares jump 5% after the computer-software company was upgraded
to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley. Micron (MU) shares gained 3% after the chipmaker was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank. Carvana Co. (CVNA) gained as much as 3.7% after Wedbush upgraded the online platform for buying used cars to neutral
from underperform. Clorox (CLX) falls 1.5% after the household-products maker said the “unauthorized activity” it detected on some of its information technology systems last month will have a “material” impact on fiscal first-quarter financial results. DoorDash
Inc. (DASH) is up 2% after Mizuho Securities upgraded the food delivery company to buy from neutral.

 European gauges are lower, following Friday’s declines in the US. Britain’s property market shattered another record with rental costs growing at the fastest pace in at least a decade.
Real Estate and Travel shares are the worst performers in the region, with all sectors in the red. Societe Generale SA slumped as much as 11% after its strategic plan disappoints and cutting profitability targets. The bank said it expected little if any growth
in annual sales over the coming years. Nordic Semiconductor slumps 10% after the chipmaker reduced quarterly revenue and margin forecasts. Pendragon shares rise as much as 32% after the new and used car seller agreed to sell its UK motor and leasing business
to Lithia Motors Inc. and form a strategic partnership with the US company. Stoxx 600 -0.9%, DAX -0.9%, CAC -1.25%, FTSE 100 -0.5%. REITs -1.9%, Travel -1.8%, Technology -1.7%.  

Asian stocks fell, with the tech sector leading the declines as a lack of positive developments from China kept sentiment in check. Technology shares in the region retreated, with Taiwan’s
TSMC, the world’s top contract chipmaker, falling over 3% after Reuters reported that it has told its major suppliers to delay the delivery of high-end chipmaking equipment. Shares of embattled developer China Evergrande Group plunged 25% today after police
detained some staff at its wealth management unit, suggesting a new investigation that could add to the property company’s woes. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index dropped 1%. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. The onshore CSI 300 Index touched
its lowest level this year before trading higher.  A gauge of state-backed banks in India is closing in on a record high in anticipation that potential inclusion of Indian government bonds in global bond indexes may result in sector gains and trigger re-rating
of the stocks. CSI 300 +0.5%, Sensex -0.35%, ASX 200 -0.7%, Kospi -1%, Vietnam -1.25%, Taiwan -1.3%, Hang Seng Index -1.4%.  

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve with losses led by the front-end, following wider weakness seen in core European rates. US Treasury yields ticked
higher, with the policy-sensitive two-year rate above 5%.  2s10s spread is flatter by 1bp on the day.  US auctions this week include a $13b 20-year bond reopening on Tuesday and $15b 10-year TIPS reopening Thursday.                 

METALS: 
           

Gold rose for a third session after advancing on Friday by the most in three weeks on lower US inflation expectations. The reading is likely to encourage Federal
Reserve policymakers to reinforce expectations they will hold rates steady at this week’s meeting. However, the outlook for borrowing costs for the rest of the year remains clouded after the producer price index and retail sales grew more than expected, according
to figures released last week.  Spot gold +0.1%, silver +0.4%.   

ENERGY:  

Oil rose to its highest levels of the year, highlighting inflationary pressures just as policymakers prepare for interest-rate meetings. A three-week rally in oil
prices has pushed benchmark Brent higher by 11%, complicating the task of central bankers around the world in their fight against inflation. Growing supply tightness and eroding inventories suggest the rally may have further to run after hedge funds boosted
bullish bets to a 15-month high last week. Traders will be monitoring clues on prospects for global supply when Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addresses an industry conference later today. Chevron resumed full production from a liquefied
natural gas export facility in Australia that suffered a fault last week, even as union members continued strikes at the site. That took some pressure off natural gas prices. WTI +0.5%, Brent +0.5%, US Nat Gas -1%, RBOB -0.2%.                           

CURRENCIES:   

The dollar inched lower, heading for a second day of losses amid very thin flows as traders took to the sidelines ahead of a slew of policy-rate decisions due this
week. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said betting on interest-rate cuts in the first half of next year would be a mistake. US$ Index -0.01%, GBPUSD +0.04%, USDJPY -0.15%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDCAD -0.25%, AUDUSD +0.05%.           

Bitcoin +2.9%, Ethereum +2.2%. 

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance

• Upgrades
• Albany International Raised to Outperform at Cowen; PT $106
• Alteryx Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $54
• BioCryst Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $10
• Carvana Raised to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $48
• DoorDash Raised to Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $105
• Jack Henry Raised to Buy at Northcoast; PT $185
• Kimco Realty Raised to Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $20
• L3Harris Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $209
• Lockheed Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $440
• Micron Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
• Oncternal Therapeutics I Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright
• Prosperity Banc Raised to Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $66.50
• Ralph Lauren Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $166
• Simply Good Foods Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $40
• Skechers USA Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $59
• Vertex Inc Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $25
• Yum China Raised to Buy at CLSA; PT $71.60
• ZIM Integrated Shipping Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
• Downgrades
• Athabasca Oil Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$4.50
• Brown-Forman Cut to Underperform at Evercore ISI; PT $68
• Diana Shipping Cut to Sell at Cleaves Securities; PT $2.60
• Dropbox Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Eagle Bulk Cut to Hold at Cleaves Securities; PT $45
• Federal Realty Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $101
• Genco Shipping Cut to Hold at Cleaves Securities; PT $15
• Global Payments Cut to Sell at Redburn; PT $105
• NetApp Inc Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• OceanFirst Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $17
• Paymentus Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $18
• PayPal Cut to Market Perform at MoffettNathanson LLC; PT $75
• Planet Fitness Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $56
• PTC Therapeutics Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $29
• Suncor Energy Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$49
• VF Corp Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $20
• Initiations
• Alliant Energy Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $55
• Almacenes Exito ADRs Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $7.04
• Anebulo Pharmaceuticals Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $6
• ARM Holdings ADRs Rated New Underperform at Bernstein; PT $46
• ASGN Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $102
• Civitas Resources Inc Rated New Buy at SWS; PT $106
• Cosan ADRs Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $16.90
• Cresud ADRs Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $10
• CRH ADRs Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $78.60
• Disney Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $97
• Eltek Rated New Buy at ThinkEquity; PT $12
• Femsa ADRs Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $151
• GPA ADRs Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $1
• Hesai Group ADRs Rated New Overweight at Guotai Junan Sec
• IRSA ADRs Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $7.90
• Kinetik Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $38
• Logan Energy Rated New Outperform at CIBC; PT C$1.50
• Lululemon Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $500
• Lundin Gold Rated New Hold at Pareto Securities; PT C$14.96
• NEXTracker Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $44
• Paramount Global Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
• Seabridge Gold Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT C$33.76
• Southern Copper Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $91
• Warner Bros Discovery Rated New Outperform at Raymond James

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG