Fed and Nvidia Are on Tap

More volatility on the way

Hey! There’s a really informative webinar coming up on February 23rd from SpotGamma called “Vanna – Feel The Force (IT’S A TRAP!!!)”

To register for the webinar, please visit this link. I think it will be very helpful and give some good insight into how options impact the market.

Our View

I don’t think there is anything wrong with being a pessimistic bull. 

From its March 2020 low, the S&P has rallied about 120% and from its 2022 low it’s up about 45% — and that pales in comparison to the Nasdaq. The markets have gone so far that I can’t imagine that there won’t be some type of hiccup. 

I don’t think we need to go over the ever-growing list of economic and geopolitical problems, they stare us in the face every day. That said, I try to stay on my plan. I don’t venture out into the stock market theories (but not when it comes to our elected congressmen and senators, they just have too much information that we do not see or hear and never will). 

A few years ago a well-known financial company called me. They wanted to know if I would do a video calling for an all-out crash in the S&P. I’m not kidding, several videos they did got millions of hits and my name/company would have gotten more exposure than I ever had, but I didn’t think the markets were going down and that’s what the company wanted me to say. 

No one knows for sure where the ES is going, but with the S&P and Nasdaq up so much — and up 14 of the last 16 weeks — this is something to think about. I’m not endorsing him or saying to sell your stocks; it is just another part of the phrase we have about money being made the old-fashioned way… or the boys with the better seats. It is called insider knowledge or in simpler terms, front running and they all do it. There is no way they are this smart! right?  

And don’t forget, Nvidia reports earnings tonight. Here’s the implied move. FOMC’s at 2pm ET, too.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES sold off down to 4994.25 on Globex and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 5001.50. After the open, the ES rallied up to 5009.25 at 9:33 and then made a beeline down to 4989.00 at 9:41. It traded sideways for a few minutes, climbed to 4995.00 and then sold off down to a new low at 4982.00 at 10:33. From there, it rallied up above the VWAP to the 4999.50 level at 11:03 and then dropped down to 4968.25 at 12:40. After the low, the ES ‘chunked’ its way back up to 4984.00, dropped down to 4993.50 at 3:13, back-and-filled at the VWAP, traded up to a lower high at 4993.25 and then sold off down to 4975.50 at 3:36 at the early imbalance showed $ 224 million to sell. 

The ES stutter-stepped its way back up to the 4987.25 level at 3:48 and traded at 4984.25 as the NYSE 3:50 order imbalance showed $550 million to sell. From there, it rallied up to 4989.00 and traded 4991.75 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES traded up to 4993.50 and settled at 4989.50, down 35 points on the 5:00 futures close — basically the 50% retracement of the day low to the Globex high. The NQ closed down 208.50 points or -1.17% while the bonds closed up. 

In the end, the decline was zero surprise. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was weak as were the other indices. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, 211k traded on Globex, and 1.2 million traded on the day session for a total of 1.411 million contracts traded.

If you think yesterday was fun, today has two Fed speakers, FOMC Minutes, and NVDA reports at 4:20 ET. I expect another day of high volatility. 

For more info on accessing the MIM, please visit here. 

Technical Edge

Guest Post

Topic: PTG / Taylor 3 Day Cycle

Author: David D Dube’

Website: https://polaristradinggroup.com/

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3):  Markets declined as statistics favored a post President’s Day negative session. Responsive Buyers were active at the Monthly Midpoint (4970) and POC from 2/13/24. Prior range was 56 handles on 2.421M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4990. This level also marks a 5-day POC, so we will mark this level as this session’s Bull/Bear Line-In-Sand (LIS).

Market volatility has now increased and is now providing ample intra-day trading opportunities. So stay-focused! Our daily plan remains unchanged. Stay flexible and in-alignment with the primary intra-day forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4990, initially targets 5005 – 5010 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4990, initially targets 4975 – 4970 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4994       PVA Low Edge = 4976         Prior POC = 499

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 90% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:

Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet  > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)

Thanks for reading,

PTGDavid

Economic Calendar

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!