Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading desk, this is not research 

DATA/HEADLINES:  8:30ET Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator*, PCE Core Deflator*, Initial Jobless Claims;
9:45ET MNI Chicago PMI; 10::00ET Pending Home Sales; 10:50ET Fed’s Bostic speaks; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 1:15ET Fed’s Mester speaks; 3:30ET Fed’s Mester speaks

HAPPY LEAP DAY – *US JAN. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.8% Y/Y; EST. 2.8%

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• Putin warns West of risk of nuclear war if troops sent into Ukraine, says Moscow can strike Western targets
  
• Eight in 10 voters in crucial swing states said Joe Biden was too old to be president; Bloomberg poll
• Trump was barred from appearing on the Republican primary ballot in Illinois
• BOJ send strongest signal yet that end is near for negative interest rate policy

World stocks were near record highs amid a monthly round of European and US inflation data.  MSCI Inc.’s global equity index is rising for a fourth month, its longest
winning streak since 2021 as investors await the critical US PCE inflation readout today. Weakening European inflation figures helped fuel debate on when the ECB should lower rates. French CPI slowed to 3.1% in February, the weakest level since September 2021,
while Spain’s fell to 2.9%. Readings from Germany pointed to inflation there still on a downward trajectory. Germany’s January retail sales showed a decline of 0.4% M/M versus expectations for +0.5%.  Putin told Western countries they risked provoking a nuclear
war if they sent troops to fight in Ukraine, warning that Moscow had the weapons to strike targets in the West.        

EQUITIES: MSCI Rebalance Today*/ Month End

US equity futures are mostly lower as investors braced for the Federal Reserve’s key inflation figures, which will help identify the path forward for interest rates. Today’s US core personal
consumption expenditure gauge will likely validate recent commentary from Fed officials showing no rush to ease monetary policy. Headline PCE inflation is expected to have fallen again to just 2.4% versus 2.6% – with ‘core’ rates down to 2.8%. Fed President
John Williams said Wednesday the central bank has “a ways to go,” in its battle against inflation but the door is opening to rate cuts this year.  Fed chief Raphael Bostic urged patience in regard to policy tweaks. Meanwhile, leaders in Congress announced
a deal for advancing the 12 annual bills that fund an array of federal programs and which could avert government shutdowns as soon as Saturday.

Futures ahead of the data: E-Mini S&P -0.25%, Nasdaq -0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI -0.3%

In pre-market trading, Snowflake shares plunged 22% overnight after the cloud software company said its chief executive officer is stepping down and gave a disappointing sales forecast.
WW International plunged 25% after Oprah Winfrey said she was going to leave its board. Best Buy (BBY) rises 2.7% after reporting sales that beat expectations as the retailer made progress toward reversing a two-year slump. Birkenstock (BIRK) gains 2% after
the company’s earnings beat analysts’ estimates. C3.ai (AI) jumps 15% after the software firm’s third-quarter revenue beat estimates, showing that demand remains robust for its artificial intelligence-related products. Chemours (CC) sinks 30% after the chemicals
company announced management changes and delayed its earnings report. Duolingo (DUOL) soars 21% after full-year revenue guidance from the language-learning software company beat expectations. Figs (FIGS) tumbles 17% after the scrubs maker’s lackluster full-year
sales outlook overshadowed a big fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda beat. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) slumps 32% after the drug developer said a trial of its experimental therapy apraglutide failed to meet two secondary goals in a late-stage trial. LivePerson
(LPSN) declines 17% after the company gave a weaker-than-expected outlook. Monster Beverage (MNST) advances 5% after the energy-drink maker reported 4Q gross margin that beat consensus estimates. Okta (OKTA) rises 26% after the application software company
reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. Schrodinger (SDGR) falls 15% after the computational platform company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook analysts see as light. Silk Road (SILK) rises 15% after the  medical-device
maker posted 4Q results that beat.

European gauges fluctuated during another busy day for earnings but are set for a four-month winning streak. The Stoxx Europe 600 is slightly higher, off earlier highs, with media and
constructions shares outperforming while technology and food & beverage sectors lag. Moncler SpA rallied after the Italian luxury company beat profit expectations. Air France-KLM slumped after a fourth-quarter loss. Shares in London-listed hedge fund firm
Man Group (EMG.L), rallied over 3% after it reported assets under management rose to a record. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX +0.4%, CAC -0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.3%. Media and Construction +1.25%. Food & Beverage -0.8%, Technology -0.7%.

China led Asian stocks higher after regulators banned a top quant fund and vowed tighter oversight of high-speed trading. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4% with consumer discretionary
and financial names leading the way. Alibaba was among the biggest drags on the index as it rolled out its second major price cut for cloud services in years.  Japan’s Aozora Bank soared after activist investor Yoshiaki Murakami reported its holdings and said
it may make important proposals. China’s CSI 300 Index was among the region’s top-performers as overseas funds snapped up shares. The benchmark had its best February in nine years, up over 9%, snapping a six-month streak of declines.  CSI 300 +1.9%, Philippines
+1%, Taiwan +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.5%, Sensex +0.3%, Topix ~flat, Vietnam -0.15%, Hang Seng Index -0.15%, Kospi -0.4%, Thailand -0.8%.  

FIXED INCOME:
 

Treasury yields rose, with the more policy sensitive two-year note up five basis points. Yields in Europe also climbed after mixed readings on price pressures from
France and Spain. UK 10yr yields rose 6.5bps on a release of UK lending and consumer credit data.  Us Treasury losses led by THE belly of the curve, leaving 5s30s spread flatter by around 2bp; 10-year yields around 4.31% near session high.     

METALS:
   

Gold slipped ahead of the release of US inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on monetary policy. Comments from New York Fed President
John Williams and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic emphasized the central bank’s cautious approach to inflation and policy adjustments. Spot gold -0.1%, silver -0.4%.

ENERGY:

Oil prices fluctuated after the previous session’s declines after a larger-than-expected build in US crude stockpiles stoked worries about slow demand, while signs
that US interest rates could remain elevated added to pressure. Still, Brent is set to end the month up at nearly 2%, its second monthly gain, while WTI is also set to rise for a second month, gaining about 3%. The conflict in the Middle East is also expected
to keep a floor under oil prices. Both Israel and Hamas have played down the prospects for a truce in their war in Gaza and Qatari mediators have said the most contentious issues are still unresolved. WTI +0.2%, Brent -0.1%, US Nat Gas -2.5%, RBOB -0.2%. April
WTI contract expires today.

CURRENCIES:

The dollar steadied, while the yen headed for its best day of the year after Bank of Japan Board Member Hajime Takata signaled that the case for ending the BOJ’s
negative rate policy is gaining momentum. Takata said in a speech the central bank needs to consider “nimble and flexible responses”, including ending policies such as negative interest rates and yield curve control. The March meeting is now in focus. The
euro swung between gains and losses on inflation data out of France and German regions. New Zealand’s dollar is down a fourth day after central bank governor Adrian Orr said policymakers decided against raising interest rates this week because latest data
confirmed that inflation is slowing.  US$ Index +0.05%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD -0.15%, NZDUSD -0.3%.

Bitcoin +3.3%, Ethereum +4%.  Bitcoin extended gains after surging above $60,000 for the first time in more than two years Wednesday, reflecting new demand from exchange-traded
funds. The currency almost touched $64,000. The 2021 record high is just below $69,000. Bitcoin’s monthly gain is more than 47%, its largest since December 2020. Ether’s February increase is 52%. LSEG data showed flows into the 10 largest spot bitcoin ETFs
brought in $420 million on Tuesday alone.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance

• Upgrades
  • Americold Realty Trust I (COLD) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
  • AutoNation (AN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $140
  • Barrick Gold (ABX CN) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT C$28.50
  • Beacon Roofing (BECN) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $115
  • Coupang (CPNG) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $21
  • EBay (EBAY) Raised to Buy at CFRA
  • Enerflex (EFX CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$10
  • Federal Realty (FRT) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $112
  • First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays
  • Group 1 Automotive (GPI) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
  • Heartland Financial (HTLF) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
  • Korn Ferry (KFY) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
  • Mersana Therapeutics (MRSN) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $7
    • Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $7
    • Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $9
    • Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $6
  • Millicom (TIGO) Raised to Buy at New Street Research; PT $24
  • Newmont Corp (NEM) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $38
  • Okta (OKTA) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $135
    • Raised to Buy at WestPark Capital; PT $140
  • Sovos (SOVO) Raised to Outperform at Telsey; PT $23
  • Ventyx Bio (VTYX) Raised to Outperform at LifeSci Capital; PT $5
  • Vita Coco (COCO) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $31
  • Xenia Hotels (XHR) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $18
• Downgrades
  • Ameresco (AMRC) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
  • American Hotel (HOT-U CN) Cut to Underperform at CIBC; PT 68 Canadian cents
  • Blackstone Sec Lending (BXSL) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
  • CF Industries (CF) Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler
  • Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $22
  • Element Fleet (EFN CN) Cut to Reduce at Veritas Investment Research Co
  • EQB Inc (EQB CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$95
  • Fiera Capital (FSZ CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$8.50
  • Figs (FIGS) Cut to Market Perform at Telsey; PT $6
  • Global Net Lease (GNL) Cut to Neutral at Colliers; PT $12
  • Inari Medical (NARI) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
  • Inhibrx (INBX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $35
  • LivePerson (LPSN) Cut to Neutral at Roth MKM; PT $2
  • LSB Industries (LXU) Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler
  • Macy’s (M) Cut to Market Perform at Cowen; PT $20
  • Mosaic (MOS) Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler
  • National Bank of Canada (NA CN) Cut to Reduce at Veritas Investment Research Co; PT C$101
  • Nutrien (NTR CN) Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler
  • Patterson Cos (PDCO) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
  • Snowflake (SNOW) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $175
  • Societal CDMO Inc (SCTL) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $1.10
    • Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
    • Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $1.10
  • Tapestry (TPR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $50
  • Vacasa (VCSA) Cut to Market Perform at JMP
  • Western Midstream Partners (WES) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $34
  • Winpak (WPK CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$45
• Initiations
  • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM CN) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT C$73.28
  • Alamos Gold (AGI CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$19
  • Amkor Technology (AMKR) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $32
  • B2Gold (BTO CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$4.75
  • Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) Rated New Buy at Roth MKM; PT $14
  • Blue Bird (BLBD) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $44
  • Calibre Mining (CXB CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$2
    • Rated New Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$2
  • Celestica (CLS CN) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl
  • Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$13
  • Endeavour Mining (EDV CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$29
  • Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT C$158.78
  • G. Mining Ventures (GMIN CN) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT C$2
  • Garmin (GRMN) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $150
  • Gates Industrial (GTES) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $21
  • Gogo (GOGO) Reinstated Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $11
  • GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) Rated New Buy at Eight Capital
  • Halozyme (HALO) Rated New Outperform at Cowen; PT $54
  • Lundin Gold (LUG CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$19
  • OceanaGold (OGC CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$3.50
  • Osisko Gold Royalties (OR CN) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT C$20.36
  • Pan American Silver (PAAS CN) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT C$19
  • Pet Valu (PET CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$38
  • Royal Gold (RGLD) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $117
  • Tal Education (TAL) ADRs Reinstated Buy at TF Securities; PT $19.71
  • Teladoc (TDOC) Reinstated Overweight at Cantor; PT $22
  • Tower Semiconductor (TSEM IT) Rated New Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $36
  • Triple Flag (TFPM CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$19
  • United Therapeutics (UTHR) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $297
  • Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$66.50

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG