Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  8:30ET Fed’s Barkin speaks on CNBC; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 10:00ET Construction
Spending, U of Mich Sentiment, ISM Prices Paid, ISM Manufacturing, ISM New Orders,
ISM Employment; 10:15ET Fed’s Waller, Logan speak; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Services Activity; 12:15ET Fed’s Bostic speaks;  1:30ET Fed’s Daly speaks; 3:30ET Fed’s Kugler speaks

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• All the jobs created in the past year have been part time
• More than a billion people globally are now considered obese, WHO says
• Yosemite to get 6-10 feet of snow
• Putin ridiculed the very notion that he might attack Europe
• Congress approved temporary funding to avert a Saturday partial US government shutdown
  

World shares after US consumer price data on Thursday contained no negative surprises, keeping intact hopes of central bank rate cuts in coming months.  Global factories
struggled to claw their way out of decline in February, with Germany squeezed by a steeper fall in demand while an uneven recovery in China overshadowed some signs of improvement in Asia. LSEG data showed investors bought a net $6.98 billion of global equity
funds during the week. Bank of America strategists said Chinese stock funds saw the largest weekly outflow since October, even as Beijing attempted to restore confidence. China’s parliament is expected to unveil moderate stimulus plans to stabilize growth
at an annual meeting beginning on Tuesday.       

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures were muted overnight as the relief rally encouraged by an in-line reading on inflation faded. Contracts on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 fluctuated in cautious trading
after both benchmarks closed at record highs Thursday. S&P 500 settled at its 14^th new all-time high on the year. Four companies have accounted for 95% of the Nasdaq 100 market cap gains year-to-date: Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon. Apple
fell premarket after Goldman removed the stock from its conviction list. The Fed’s John Williams reiterated last night that he expects rate cuts later this year. A slew of officials speaking later today may offer more clues on timing. Investors now await data
on manufacturing activity and consumer sentiment.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.01%, Nasdaq +0.1%, Russell 2000 is flat, DJI -0.1%  

In pre-market trading, New York Community Bancorp fell more than 30% after identifying material weaknesses in how it tracks loan risks. Shares of other regional banks Zions Bancorp (ZION)
and Keycorp (KEY) fell over 1% each. Dell Technologies soared 21% after its results beat expectations, boosted by the buzz around AI. Cybersecurity firm Zscaler (ZS) shed 6% as the company reported higher operating expenses in the second quarter. Autodesk
(ADSK) gained over 8% as the company’s annual revenue forecast exceeded expectations. Amneal Pharmaceuticals (AMRX) climbs about 9% after the company reported a beat. Everbridge (EVBG) jumps 25% after the software firm said Thoma Bravo agreed to boost its
acquisition price for the company by $6.40 per share to $35 per share. Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA) slides 13% after the firm’s forecast for the year disappointed. HP Enterprise (HPE) slips 5.6% after the computer hardware and storage company narrowed full year forecast.
SoundHound AI (SOUN) falls 23%, with the voice AI software company retreating in the wake of its fourth-quarter results. Sweetgreen (SG) rises 20% after the salad chain’s first-quarter revenue forecast came above expectations.

European gauges hovered close to a record high, following gains on Wall Street. Euro-zone inflation eased less than anticipated in February, supporting ECB officials who don’t want to
rush into lowering rates. Headline inflation in the euro zone was a higher-than-expected 2.6% in February, while the core measure held above 3.0%. The main surprise came from services inflation, which saw a considerably smaller decline than expected. Spain’s
manufacturing PMI and Euro-Zone CPI surprised on the upside. The Stoxx 600 Index was 0.4% higher, with banks, REITs and auto stocks leading gains, though construction shares lagged. Daimler Truck Holding AG jumped 17% after the truck manufacturer’s earnings,
while Grifols SA rebounded after a record plunge on Thursday. Stoxx 600 %, DAX %, CAC %, FTSE 100 %. Banks +1.4%, REITS +1.3%, Energy +1.1%. Media and Construction -0.5%. 

Asian stocks advanced, adding to their best February performance in nine years, buoyed by a climb in shares in Japan, India and China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%, its highest
close since April 2022, with materials and energy stocks among the main gainers. Shares closed higher in the mainland and Hong Kong ahead of next week’s crucial National People’s Congress meeting, where traders are awaiting more policy support from Beijing.
China’s Services PMI came in a bit stronger at 51.4 versus 50.7 expected. Factory activity shrank for a fifth month in February, suggesting weak demand remains a problem. In India, benchmark indexes rose the most in a month after a better-than-expected GDP
growth print for the December quarter.  Japan’s Nikkei 225 index closed at a record high, +1.9%. Sensex +1.7%, CSI 300 +0.6%, ASX 200 +0.6%, Hang Seng Index +0.5%. Taiwan -0.15%, Singapore -0.2%, Philippines -0.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are paring earlier gains heading into the US session. 10-year yield is around 4.26%, 2-year yield ~4.62%. Front-end-led gains steepens 2s10s spread by
0.5bp, 5s30s flatter by ~1bp on the day. US session includes February manufacturing gauges and several Fed speakers. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; four names priced $2.9b Thursday, closing out a record February that saw $198b priced.     

METALS: 
   

Gold prices continued to rise after US core inflation data met expectations, suggesting the possibility of future interest-rate cuts. Although underlying inflation
is running at the fastest pace in almost a year, the print wasn’t a surprise and failed to dent the broader disinflationary trend underpinning forecasts for policy easing. On Thursday, Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said officials are ready
to lower rates as needed but emphasized there’s no urgency given the strength of the economy. Spot gold +0.35%, silver +0.2%.  

ENERGY:  

Oil prices rose on Friday and were set for weekly gains as markets awaited an OPEC+ decision on supply agreements for the second quarter. A decision on extending
OPEC+ cuts is expected in the first week of March, sources said. Saudi Arabian crude exports rose for a second month in February. Kuwait’s shipments slumped to the lowest in at least seven years, while Libyan supply rebounded above 1 million b/d after protests
ended at the country’s biggest field.  On the demand side, Chinese manufacturing activity shrank for the fifth straight month in February, an official survey showed. WTI +1.6%, Brent +1.5%, US Nat Gas -0.2%, RBOB +1%.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the dollar edged lower while the yen led G-10 losses. The yen weakened after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said the BOJ still can’t foresee when
its price target will be met. His comment may temper speculation the bank’s first rate hike since 2007 could come as early as March. It may wait until April before ending negative rates, the bank’s former monetary policy chief said.  The euro remained stable
after euro-zone inflation data showed less easing than expected in February.  Meanwhile, AUDUSD rose slightly after data showed China’s factory activity slowed less than anticipated.US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY +0.4%, AUDUSD +0.1%, USDNOK
-0.5%.

Bitcoin %, Ethereum %.  Bitcoin gained for a seventh day, trading above $62,000 as demand from exchange-traded funds continues. BlackRock Inc.’s iShares Bitcoin Trust netted
a record $612 million inflow on Wednesday.  

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Annexon (ANNX) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $11
• Caret Holdings Inc (ROOT) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $40
• GoodRx Holdings (GDRX) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $10
• InterRent REIT (IIP-U CN) Raised to Reduce at Veritas Investment Research Co
• Parker-Hannifin (PH) Raised to Market Perform at Cowen; PT $500
• WSP Global (WSP CN) Raised to Buy at Veritas Investment Research Co
• Downgrades
• Ambev (ABEV3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
• BlackRock TCP Capital (TCPC) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Cut to Market Perform at JMP
• Block (SQ) Cut to Accumulate at Phillip Secs; PT $94
• Endava (DAVA) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $40
• EQB Inc (EQB CN) Cut to Reduce at Veritas Investment Research Co; PT C$85
• Evergy (EVRG) Cut to Buy at CFRA; PT $57
• Everi Holdings (EVRI) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
• Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $13
• Fisker (FSR) Cut to Neutral at Citi
• Flywire (FLYW) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $30
• GDI Integrated (GDI CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
• Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$39
• HP Enterprise (HPE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $17
• International Game (IGT) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
• Kinaxis (KXS CN) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT C$152.07
• Lion Electric (LEV) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT $2.50
• Martinrea (MRE CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$15
• New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
• P10 (PX) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $9.50
• Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $10
• Re/Max (RMAX) Cut to Hold at JonesTrading
• Stantec (STN CN) Cut to Sector Perform at ATB Capital; PT C$120
• Sterling Check (STER) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Initiations
• Acrivon Therapeutics (ACRV) Rated New Market Outperform at JMP; PT $14
• Air Products (APD) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $279
• Albemarle (ALB) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• APA Corp (APA) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $38.10
• Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Ashland Inc (ASH) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $108
• Axalta (AXTA) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Ball (BALL) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Berry Global (BERY) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Campbell Soup (CPB) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $48
• CF Industries (CF) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $99
• Corteva (CTVA) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $67
• Crown Holdings (CCK) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $102
• Dow (DOW) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• DuPont de Nemours (DD) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Ecolab (ECL) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Element Solutions (ESI) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Elevation Oncology (ELEV) Rated New Market Outperform at JMP; PT $7
• Entegris (ENTG) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $160
• Evolent (EVH) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $45
• Flowers Foods (FLO) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $24
• FMC Corp (FMC) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Hain Celestial (HAIN) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $10
• International Flavors (IFF) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $66
• J M Smucker (SJM) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $132
• Kellanova (K) Reinstated Buy at DA Davidson; PT $67
• Linde (LIN) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• LyondellBasell (LYB) Rated New Underperform at Wolfe; PT $91
• Meituan (3690 HK) ADRs Rated New Buy at Hedgeye
• Mosaic (MOS) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $39
• Nutrien (NTR CN) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT C$89.61
• Oatly Group (OTLY) ADRs Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $1.50
• PPG Industries (PPG) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Regeneron (REGN) Resumed Market Perform at Raymond James
• Sandy Spring (SASR) Rated New Neutral at Janney Montgomery; PT $25
• Sealed Air (SEE) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• SelectQuote (SLQT) Rated New Outperform at Noble Capital Markets; PT $5
• Utz Brands (UTZ) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $20

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG