Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, Durable Goods Orders; 9:00ET FHFA House Price
Index; 10:00ET Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufact. Index; 10:30ET Dallas Fed Services Activity; 1:00ET 5 Year Note Auction

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• US yield curve has now been inverted for a record 628 days
  
• RFK Jr. to announce running mate today in Oakland
  
• China has filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization over US subsidies for electric vehicles
• NIH sent notice to BioNTech regarding default on payment of royalties related to its COVID-19 vaccine
• Maersk says ship it chartered caused Baltimore bridge to collapse this morning; mass-casualties
  video

Global shares struggled for traction in tentative trading ahead of Friday’s release of US inflation data. The MSCI All-World index was barely changed as Europe was
on the defensive early after US Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his expectation for one interest-rate cut this year. Markets are pricing in too many BOE rate cuts, policymaker Catherine Mann told Bloomberg TV. Some US executives in Beijing for a business
summit are rejigging their schedules after being invited to meet tomorrow with a top Chinese leader – widely expected to be Xi Jinping.     

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are higher after two days of losses as investors looked toward US data for pointers on whether the recent rally has room to run. Concern about a disconnect between earnings
expectations and share prices has grown this week. US durable goods and consumer confidence data are due today ahead of the government’s closely followed personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday when many markets will be closed for Easter holidays.
Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed after a container vessel rammed into it in the early hours, sending vehicles plunging into the river. The disaster will probably cause chaos for shipping at one of the busiest ports on the East Coast. At least
ten commercial ships headed to Baltimore are anchored nearby, according to ship tracking data. Donald Trump’s social media startup climbed over 20% ahead of its first session as a publicly traded company.           

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.35%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading, Tesla gained over 3% after an Italian newspaper said that officials at the country’s Industry Ministry contacted the firm about the potential production of electric
trucks. Krispy Kreme (DNUT) jumps 15% after announcing that its doughnuts would be sold at McDonald’s restaurants across the US. Reddit (RDDT) rises 5% after the social media company rallied 30% on Monday. Seagate (STX) climbs 4% as Morgan Stanley raises its
recommendation on the computer hardware and storage company to overweight. Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) soars 90% after the company said data from studies on its STK-001 treatment in Dravet syndrome showed clinically meaningful effects in seizure reduction. Trump
Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT) gains 11% after completing a merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp.

European gauges edged higher after recouping early losses and are set for a second straight quarter of gains as investors bet on potential rate cuts. Retail and banks outperform in the
region, while real estate underperforms.  Miners also lagged amid deepening anxiety over Chinese demand for iron ore.  Among individual stock moves in Europe, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S fell after the shipping giant said that it chartered a container vessel that
hit a key Bridge in Baltimore on Tuesday. In London, Ocado Group rose over 7% after sales at its online grocery business got a boost from price cuts.  BNP Paribas SA gained after Goldman Sachs upgraded the French bank to a buy.  Stoxx 600 +0.15%, DAX +0.65%,
CAC +0.25%, FTSE 100 +0.05%. Retail +0.8%, Banks +0.7%, Technology +0.6%. REITs -0.4%, Basic Resources -0.3%.

Asian stocks were mixed, as Hong Kong and Korean stocks rallied while Indian shares underperformed. Chinese equity markets rallied on the back of the PBOC supporting the currency. The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed, erasing a gain of as much as 0.5%. South Korea’s Kospi headed for its highest close in almost two years as foreign investors bought local chip stocks following US memory maker Micron’s surge. Elsewhere, Japanese
equities fluctuated as the weak yen supported exporters but prompted warnings from officials.
Alibaba Group is calling off an initial public offering for its Cainiao logistics arm in Hong Kong, shelving a much-anticipated debut that could have raised more than $1 billion.
 Vietnam +1.1%, Singapore +1.1%, Hang Seng Index +0.9%, Kospi +0.7%, CSI 300 +0.5%, , Topix +0.1%. Nikkei 225 -0.05%, Taiwan -0.3%, ASX 200 -0.4%, Sensex -0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are richer by up to 3bp across the curve, led by bigger gains in gilts as traders look past comments from BOE’s Mann who said markets are pricing in too
many interest-rate cuts this year. US session has packed data slate headed by durable goods orders and consumer confidence. Auction cycle continues with $67 billion 5-year note sale which follows 0.5bp tail for 2-year sale on Monday. This week’s sales conclude
with $43b 7-year Wednesday. US interest rate futures price about three Fed rate cuts this year and about a 75% chance of the first cut in June.

METALS: 
   

Gold is trading sharply higher, driven by key economic factors including the recent dollar weakness and Treasury yields. The Federal Reserve appears to be awaiting
more solid economic data before proceeding with rate cuts, in contrast to the market’s expectations of immediate reductions. The holdings in SPDR Gold Trust have remained stable, indicating a steady interest in gold from investors.  Spot gold +1.1%, silver
+0.7%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices struggled for direction as investors weigh supply outlook. Oil on Monday snapped a three-day losing streak, buoyed by continued attacks by Ukraine on Russian
refineries. Also on Monday, Moscow ordered companies to rein in oil output in the second quarter to ensure they meet a production target of 9 million barrels per day by the end of June, in line with its pledges to OPEC+, according to Reuters. Russia’s seaborne
crude exports clawed back about half of the previous week’s losses even though there’s growing evidence that sanctions are finally starting to stymie Moscow’s oil supply chain. Indian buyers of Venezuelan oil halted purchases to avoid any complications should
Washington not extend a sanctions waiver that’s set to expire in April, sources said.  European natural gas prices erased Monday’s gains after attacks on Ukrainian gas storage facilities sparked a 2.6% jump. While traders are on alert for damage to critical
infrastructure from Russia’s war on Ukraine, subdued economic activity is keeping a lid on the region’s energy needs. Europe is ending the heating season with inventories nearly 60% full, a record for the time of year. WTI +0.25%, Brent +0.2%, US Nat Gas +0.2%,
RBOB +0.1%.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the risk of Japan intervening to prevent further falls in the yen squeezed the dollar. The dollar fell against all Group-of-10 peers except the
Swiss franc and stayed within tight ranges on aggregate ahead of US consumer confidence data.  Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said Tuesday the government will take appropriate steps against excessive currency moves, without ruling out any measures. 
The offshore yuan strengthened after the PBOC signaled its support for the currency for a second day, shifting its fixing 0.1% higher. The pound hit a fresh intraday high after BOE’s Catherine Mann said financial markets are pricing in too many interest rate
cuts this year and that it’s unlikely the UK will move before the Fed. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.05%, AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD +0.4%, USDCHF +0.25%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.2%, Ethereum +0.3%. Bitcoin hovered just above $70,000 after rising sharply on Monday.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Clorox (CLX) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $145
• Invivyd Inc (IVVD) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $10
• Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $73
• Nuvation Bio (NUVB) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $5
• PagSeguro (PAGS) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $18
• Seagate (STX) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $115
• Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) Raised to Outperform at Cowen
• Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $37
• Downgrades
• Athabasca Oil (ATH CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$6
• Baozun (BZUN) ADRs Cut to Hold at China Renaissance; PT $2.50
• Southern Energy Corp (SOU CN) Cut to Neutral at Eight Capital
• Initiations
• Applied Therapeutics (APLT) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $12
• AZEK (AZEK) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $52.30
• Boise Cascade (BCC) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $162
• Boyd Gaming (BYD) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $80
• BRP Inc. (DOO CN) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research
• Carnival (CCL) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $21
• Cedar Fair (FUN) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $56
• Churchill Downs (CHDN) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $142
• DraftKings (DKNG) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $58
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $38.10
• Evergy (EVRG) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $64
• Founders Metals (FDR CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Paradigm Capital
• Harley-Davidson (HOG) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $47.10
• Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities
• Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $245
• Hyatt (H) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $197
• International Game (IGT) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $27.20
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $70
• Light & Wonder (LNW) Rated New Underperform at Mizuho Securities
• Lucid (LCID) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $3.70
• Marriott Intl (MAR) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $263
• Marriott Vacations (VAC) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $128
• Mattel (MAT) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research; PT $22.90
• Meritage Homes (MTH) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $179.20
• MGM Resorts (MGM) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $61
• Mohawk Industries (MHK) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research
• MSCI (MSCI) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $21
• Nutrien (NTR CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$84.22
• Paccar (PCAR) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC
• Penn Entertainment Inc (PENN) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities
• Planet Fitness (PLNT) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $76.20
• Polaris (PII) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research; PT $111
• Qualys (QLYS) Rated New Market Perform at Cowen; PT $170
• Red Rock Resorts (RRR) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $61.40
• Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $69
• Red Violet (RDVT) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $25
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $8
• Taylor Morrison (TMHC) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $64.90
• Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) Travel + Leisure Co Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities
• United Parks & Resorts I (PRKS) US Rated New Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $47
• Vail Resorts (MTN) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $256
• Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $22

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG