WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-05172024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Stocks moved to the upside early in the session on Thursday but fluctuated over the course of the trading day before eventually closing modestly lower. The major averages partly offset the strong upward move seen over the two previous sessions.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
As the market opens price trade within a 5 handle range. By 10:10 am price dips down to the 5329 Weekly R3. Price then rallies for 50 minutes up to tag the Daily R1 5347 handle. A lot of traders. A lot of prosnoctators had that as a level within a handle or two.
Wyckoff would have said, "The Composite Man realizing we was unable to lift price, bid price to get out from under and sell it off at the highs." He'd called that a buldge. Implying that it will not last. Efferical. Price is trading at the Weekly R3. It's hard to wrap your head around that. One day left. Today.
Let's look at yesterday a different way. A 50 minute up move on 138K lots. Then a 90 minute down move on 121 K lots. Look like the bulls might have the upper hand. So, compare the last up wave of 50 minutes in time and price extent. You can see in 50 minutes at 1:15 pm price is unable to recover just half of the loss. That is a normal correction.
Now compare the volume of up 38 K lots during the lunch SLOG. Bulls were unable to gain a following on the last rally. That was the tell. Now traders blamed it on NVDA dumping shares. Perhaps? Perhaps not. We always look for a reason after the fact.
I'm told automobile repaires went up 40 persent from last year. Yea, that going to make me happy tomorrow…
WB may have called this day ABERRANT or we did not get the Kewpie doll. Best trade would have been to have gotten short at the buldge up at the 5347 Daily R1 handle. Price was already at the Weekly R3 5329 handle. What more could a trader want?
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a position: (Sydneys / AI Read)
Based on the information provided, a seasoned trader may have identified the 50-minute rally to the Daily R1 level of 5347 as an opportunity to enter a short position. This decision could have been influenced by several factors:
1. Price had already reached the Weekly R3 level of 5329, which could be seen as a resistance level and an indication that the market may be overbought in the short term.
2. The Wyckoff method suggests that the market may be experiencing a "bulge," which is a temporary price increase followed by a decrease. The Composite Man, a hypothetical ideal trader in Wyckoff's method, is thought to sell at the highs of a bulge.
3. The volume during the lunch slog was lower, indicating that the bulls were unable to gain momentum, which could be a bearish signal.
4. The 50-minute up move was followed by a 90-minute down move, which could be interpreted as the bears regaining control of the market.
Therefore, a seasoned trader may have identified the 5347 level as an opportunity to enter a short position, with a stop loss above the high of the bulge and a target price near the Weekly R3 level of 5329 or lower. However, it's important to note that trading involves risks, and there's no guarantee that this trade would have been profitable. It's always recommended to use risk management strategies and to consider multiple factors before making trading decisions.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS" (WOW. She nailed that one. She's getting to be a better trader each day)
good morning today is SERIES S3L with the spill up.
News: E-Commerce Retail Sales & Leading Indicators at 10:00, Christopher Waller Speaks at 10:15, Mary Daly Speaks at 12:15, Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: Place your bets: higher or lower?
7/8/9 AM: Price is trying to hold the 22 but supply is entering into the equation.
Today: See Actonable Trade Plan above.
Bulls Want: 29, 38, 48
Bears Want: 13, 02, 95
Globex: 11 handle trading range on 108 K volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 12.31
Shape of the day: Need a surgons scaple. Rope follows expansion.
Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, MID AM HIGH, lunch low, mid pm high, LAST HOUR LOW.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Holding longs. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Holding longs. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Got short at buldge out at lunch and at close. OUT.
Pre Opening: Bulls trying to hold the 24 Daily Pivot.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: March 25 Worm Moon 3:00 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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