on May 29, 2024

NVDA’s Upside Party as Bonds Fall

Markets are “going nowhere fast”

We are going LIVE tonight at 8pm ET on YouTube — “We” as in me, Danny Riley (aka DBOY) and Rich Miller (aka HandelStats).

We’re going to discuss my market views and Handelstat’s algorithms.

Save your spot, right here!

Our View

Crazy times are about to get crazier…On one side of the street you have Robert De Niro bad mouthing Trump outside the Manhattan courtroom where the trial is being held, saying he will take away your freedom, and on other side are protestors yelling FU Biden.

I gave up on watching the news after the Covid-19 outbreak, it was bad then but it’s only gotten worse.

So what’s going to happen if the court convicts Trump? Send him to jail? How will that help an already historically hot election? Crime is jumping to new levels as the summer rolls in and UBS is raising its target in the S&P to 5600? Most of the banks were way off on their S&P estimates and UBS is one of many.

According to ETFGI data, flows to U.S. stock and bond funds this year are the strongest since 2021 when interest rates were near zero. Globally, the net $468 billion invested in ETFs through April is the highest on record.

Our Lean

The PitBull said the markets can’t go up without the semis. He also said the country is going bankrupt and that the ES and NQ are going nowhere fast. He argued that the market-leading stocks always top last and he’s concerned about what may happen if Trump is convicted. He said a few times that he thought the markets could top at any time.

The way I see it is, the ES is stuck in a 40 to 50 point range…you can’t sell 5290s and you can’t buy 5340s, at least for now.

Our Lean: First and foremost, no one knows for sure what the S&P is going to do next, but the ES held where it should have. Selling the gap up has worked well recently, but we’ve been chopping around for two weeks now and volume continues to fall. The ES may not plummet to new 2024 lows, but it’s not hard to imagine a break of the recent range. If that’s the case, 5250 could be on tap.

MrTopStep Levels:

How to use MTS levels

MiM and Daily Recap

ES Recap 15-min

The ES traded up to 5339.00 on Globex and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 5328.50. After the open, the ES traded up to 5331.50 at 9:40, sold off down to 5316.25 at 10:05, rallied up to 5324.50 at 10:20, back-and-filled a bit, traded down to a higher low at 5317.75 double bottom at 10:45 and then rallied up to 5328.00 at 10:00. After the high, the ES sold off and rallied up to a lower high of 5326.00 at 11:05, dropped down to 5319.75 at 11:10 and then traded back up to 5329.25 at 12:20 and then dropped down to a 5322.25 at 12:35. From there, it rallied back up to a lower high at 5328.75 at 12:50 and sold off down to 5317.25 as the 5-yr auction came out with a D- rating and the bonds tumbled.

After the down-tick, the ES rallied back up to 5324.75 at 1:15, traded down to 5319.00 at 1:35, up-ticked to 5324.75 at 1:40, dropped down to 5311.00 at 1:55 and then rallied back up to 5319.00 at 2:15. After the pop, the ES sold back off down to 5296.75 at 2:40 — just above Friday’s 5394.50 day low — and back-and-filled for a few minutes before popping back up to 5316.25 at 3:25 and then sold back off down to 5308.75 at 3:30.

From there, the ES sold off down to 5309.25 and traded 5311.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $190 million to buy, traded back up to 5327.00 at 3:59 and traded 5326.00 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES rallied up to 5330.75 and settled at 5324.00, down 10 points or -0.19%, the Nasdaq futures settled at 18.950.50, up 74.50 points or +0.39%, crude oil (CLN4) settled at 80.28, up 2.65 or +3.29%, gold (GCM4) settled at 2,362.40. up 27.90 or +1.20%, the 10-yr note (ZNM4) setted at 108.067, down 0.160 or -0.46, and the June Bitcoin futures (BTCM4) settled at 68,335, down 1,140 or -1.64% on the day.

In the end, the only thing holding up the ES and NQ was NVDA. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the bond weakness was a major factor in the flush but the NQ finished near unchanged. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher than I expected: 231k traded on Globex and 1.115 million traded on the day session for a total of 1.346 million contracts traded.