Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Import Price Index, Export Price Index, Fed’s Mester speaks (also at 1:15 and 4:00ET);
10:00ET U. of Mich. Sentiment; Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

2:30ET Fed’s Mester appears on CNBC

HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• Buyback blackout begins today
• Microsoft is pulling a new AI feature of its Windows software for new PCs
• FAA PROBING COUNTERFEIT TITANIUM IN BOEING, AIRBUS JETS: NYT

World stocks eased on global pressures, including worries over the political situation in France and the Bank of Japan indicating it would slow its quantitative easing
pace. European markets are increasingly anxious after French President Emmanuel Macron announced a snap legislative election following his party’s drubbing in the European Parliament elections. The week’s turmoil has wiped out all of this month’s gains for
the CAC40 benchmark, with analysts warning that the volatility may continue until the French vote is concluded in July. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin set out the requirements for Moscow to start peace talks with Ukraine, including a commitment that Ukraine
will abandon its long-standing ambitions to join NATO.

EQUITIES:

US equity futures are lower, trailing shares in Europe. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are set to open lower after notching up record highs every day this week. Adobe is set for its biggest
gain in about four years after a strong sales forecast for creative products suggested customers are adopting its AI tools. That bucks a recent trend of slowing demand reported by Salesforce and Workday. Focus this morning will be on the release of the University
of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index preliminary June reading.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 -1.3%, DJI -0.7%.

In pre-market trading, Adobe (ADBE) rises 14% after the creative-arts software company raised its full-year forecast on key metrics. MSC Industrial (MSM), a distributor of metalworking
products, drops 13% after reporting disappointing preliminary 3Q results. Nucor Corp. (NUE) falls 2% after the company provided a 2Q profit forecast that disappointed. Pinterest (PINS) declines 3% after Piper Sandler noted a deceleration in growth in traffic
to Amazon in May. RH (RH) tumbles 12% after the furniture retailer reported a heavier-than-expected first-quarter loss. Tesla (TSLA) rises 1.2% after investors re-approved Elon Musk’s compensation. ZKH Group (ZKH) rises 12% after the China-based firm said
its board authorized a buyback program of its American depositary shares for up to $50 million.

European gauges are broadly lower, headed for their worst week since October on growing concerns about political turmoil in France. The French equity benchmark is heading for its worst
week in a year with bank shares such as BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA among the biggest losers. French lenders have dropped more than 10% in the week. The premium France that pays on its debt relative to Germany’s continued to soar, hitting the highest
in seven years. French stocks lost roughly $200 billion in market capitalization this week — or about the size of Greece’s economy. Defense firms declined ahead of a Swiss-hosted Ukraine peace summit this weekend and as Reuters reports that China is pushing
a rival peace plan. Stoxx 600 -0.7%, DAX -1.1%, CAC -2.1%, FTSE 100 -0.1%.  Banks -2.7%, Industrials -1.6%, Autos -1.4%. Food & Bev +0.6%, Healthcare +0.5%.

Shares in Asia were mixed after the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged. MSCI’s Asia Pacific index slipped 0.1% as losses in Hong Kong and Indonesia offset gains
in Japan and Taiwan. Japanese equities climbed on a weaker yen as the nation’s central bank delayed details of a reduction in its bond-buying program. Shares rose in South Korea after authorities decided to extend a ban on short-selling. Chinese property stocks
rose, paring most of their losses from earlier in the week, as growing expectations for an MLF rate cut Monday rekindle optimism over the sector. Taiwan +0.9%, Topix +0.5%, CSI 300 +0.4%, Sensex +0.2%, Kospi +0.1%. ASX 200 -0.3%, Hang Seng Index -0.9%, Indonesia
-1.4%, Vietnam -1.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries push to fresh weekly highs heading into early US session, following sharp gains in bunds where German 2-year yields are richer by more than 10bp on the
day. French and Italian bond spreads are aggressively wider versus bunds. The yield on 10-year Treasuries slips 4bps to 4.205% with the curve in a bull-flattening move, tightening 2s10s spread by ~3bp on the day.  Focal points of US session include University
of Michigan sentiment survey and a busy Fed speaker slate.

METALS: 

Gold rallied more than 1%, reversing last week’s loss as a selloff in European equity markets helped to boost bullion’s appeal as a haven for investors. Spot gold
+1.3%, silver +1.2%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices are little changed, remaining on track for solid weekly gains that have more than erased the tumble seen after OPEC+ on June 2 announced a plan to begin
phasing in the return of around 2.2 million barrels a day of crude later this year. WTI and Brent are on track for weekly gains of around 4.2%. OPEC’s top official once again criticized forecasts of a looming peak in oil consumption, pushing back against a
report this week from the International Energy Agency, calling it a “dangerous commentary, especially for consumers.”  WTI +0.2%, Brent +0.3%, US Nat Gas +0.6%, RBOB +1%.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, dollar traded stronger versus all group-of-10 peers except the Swiss franc, while the yen fell to its lowest since late April after the Bank
of Japan policy decision. The BOJ triggered renewed weakness in the yen after making investors wait until its July meeting for details on its paring of bond buying. Subsequently, the yen strengthened after Governor Ueda pushed back against the view that a
rate hike was no longer possible next month. US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.45%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD -0.3%, USDCHF -0.1%, NZDUSD -0.5%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.4%, Ethereum +1.1%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Adobe (ADBE) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $580
• Apple (AAPL) Raised to Buy at Erste Group
• Bank of America (BAC) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $46
• Cargojet (CJT CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$154
• Ionis Pharma (IONS) Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $44
• Permian Resources (PR) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $21
• Ryder (R) Raised to Buy at Vertical Research; PT $145
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI
• Steelcase (SCS) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $17
• Taseko Mines (TKO CN) Raised to Speculative Buy at Cantor; PT C$5
• Varonis Systems (VRNS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $54
• Zscaler (ZS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $230
• Downgrades
• 8×8 (EGHT) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $2
• APA Corp (APA) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $39
• Bandwidth (BAND) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $15
• Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler
• Twilio (TWLO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $60
• Initiations
• Canadian Tire (CTC/A CN) Rated New Underperform at Jefferies; PT C$121
• Duolingo (DUOL) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $250
• Gdev (GDEV) Rated New Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Globe Life (GL) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $108.90
• Hartford Financial (HIG) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research
• MicroStrategy (MSTR) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $2,890
• Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $15
• Red Cat (RCAT) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $4
• Roblox (RBLX) Rated New Outperform at Macquarie; PT $46

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG