Bulls Jam ES and NQ to Record Highs…Again
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Our View
I was spot on about buying the lower open and ‘thin to win’ and a continuation of last week’s price action. The ES had a 9 point dip after the open, then soared more than 70 points to the session high. The YM snapped a 4-day losing streak, closing at 39,253.00, up 244 points or 0.63% on the day.
Did you know that the top 15 names in the S&P 500 continue to make up most of the gains? Yesterday it was the same old names: Apple +2%, Microsoft +1.1%, Amazon +0.22%, META +0.50%, the semiconductor ETF SMH +1.7%.
On Monday, the ES notched its 30th record close in 2024, with yesterday’s rip coming after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their seventh weekly gain in eight weeks. It doesn’t matter if you are a bull or a bear, but when you hear major indices are up or down 7 out of the last 8 weeks, it’s normal to question it.
Remember the ES traded down to 5270.25 on May 31st and in 10 sessions has rallied 290.75 points — that’s a gain of 29.1 points per day.
Our Lean
Life is a lot better when you are not fighting the trend. Everything flows better, but everything revolves around 6 words: How long will the rally last?
With the exception of a few bumps in the road, I think the answer to that is….all year.
I like reading about the dollar and I get a ton of bank FX reports. China, Saudi Arabia and Russia are leading the charge against the dollar, so I do my best to keep up on it. This note from Goldman Sachs was an interesting read:
“Even after the US dollar’s rally this year against all of its peers in the G10, Goldman Sachs Research expects the greenback to largely retain its recent gains. Our analysts forecast the US currency to be at essentially the same level in 12 months versus the likes of the euro, the British pound, and Australia’s dollar.”
(The full article is in the link above).
MrTopStep Levels:
MiM and Daily Recap
ES Recap
The ES traded down to 5493.00 on Globex and opened Monday’s regular session at 5495.00. After the open, the ES chopped around, rallied up to 5496.50, sold off down to 5490.75, rallied up 5498.75 and then sold off down to the LOW of the day at 5489.75 at 9:50. From there it rallied up to 5503.00 and then sold off down to 5495.00 and then went on a tangent to the upside, printing all the way up to 5515.25 at 11:25.
After the high, the ES pulled back to 5509.50 at 11:41, rallied up to 5529.50, pulled back a few points and rallied up to 5535.00, pulled back to 5529.00 and then rallied up to 5540.50 at 1:20. From there, it traded up to 5559.00, pulled back a few points, traded up to 5561.00 at 2:15 and then sold off down to 5551.00 at 3:00. The ES rallied back up to 5560.50 at 3:30 and traded 5550.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $3 billion to sell and traded 5447.50 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded down to 5242.75 and then rallied up to 5547.75 at 3:26 and settled at 5547.25, up 47 points or +0.85%. The NQ settled at 20,187.00, up 288.25 points or +1.18% and both the NQ and ES closed at new all-time record highs. The bonds (ZBU4) closed at 119.17, down 29 points or -0.75%, the 10-Yr Note (ZNU4) settled at 110’110, down 16 points or -0.44%, Gold (GCQ4) settled at 2,333.80, down 15.3 points or -0.65%, crude oil (CLN4) settled at $79.95, up $1.90 or +2.43% and Bitcoin (BTCN4) closed at 67.176.00, up 975 points or +1.47% on the day. Everything was moving.
In the end it was a non-stop, thin to win, buy fest until the boys with the better seats showed up with their $3.3 billion to sell on the imbalance. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the markets were firm. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was high at 2.097 million contracts traded — but most of it was spreads amid the rollover.
Technical Edge
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NYSE Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
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Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
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VIX: ~12.75
Guest Post — Niels from Tradrr
Looking into the rest of this week leaves us with 3 full trading days as Wednesday is set to have an early close for futures alongside the remainder of roll over for the current June contracts has us take a look at one of the indices that have yet to break out to new all time highs.
Having the ES and NQ futures grinding continuously to new all time highs we have a bit of a laggard when watching the YM futures as it still leaves its own all time high roughly 20k points above guarded by a few weekly high volume nodes.
The line in the sand for the remainder of this contract places a low volume node that was set and tested in mid May keeping the current prices balanced between itself and the taper below on the composite
The last week of May held the POC for the composite with current prices trading above it whilst building several nodes that can aid to shift the POC higher bringing value higher to give strength for tests through the key low volume node otherwise set as a failure of the balance and an extension lower.
To learn more about Tradrr, please check them out here!
Economic Calendar
For a more complete Economic Calendar see: https://mrtopstep.com/economic-calendar/
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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