Busy Fed speech day. Take note of the times.
Milton adds another brick in the wall.
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Our View
IIMPRO: Dboy (9:36:45 AM): Going up today, Turn Around Tuesday.
IMPRO: Dboy (9:38:40 AM): Needs a good flush.
IMPRO: Dboy (10:32:47 AM): ES will take the Globex highs, but it’s going to grind.
IMPRO: Dboy (10:48:51 AM): Turn Around Tuesday.
IMPRO: Dboy (10:49:08 AM): I said it in the OP, and I said it after the open.
IMPRO: Dboy (10:49:22 AM): The ES thrives off the shorts.
IMPRO: Dboy (10:50:29 AM): There can be 100 reasons to go down, and it will go up.
IMPRO: Dboy (11:08:40 AM): If the ES pulls back and it’s bid, the ES will rally on the close.
I even called for New Highs on the Close:
IMPRO: Dboy (1:45:51 PM): NHOTC (new highs on the close)
I followed the Opening Print’s and it paid off.
Our Lean
Today’s Hump Day Hurricane filled trade starts with a tsunami of Fed speak. It’s my guess the ES will get bombarded with headline news and algo bombs. The PitBull said last night:
IMPRO: PITBULL (9:50:49 PM): “Dboy, my signals could easily reverse tomorrow.”
I can’t disagree with this.
Here are just a few headlines from last night:
IMPRO: (IR): Energy futures rally off lows on reports circulating that Israel could still plan to target Iranian oil facilities in its forthcoming retaliation strike.
IMPRO: JMoroc (10:23:19 PM): BA SAYS OFFER TO UNION ‘WITHDRAWN’ – Says further talks do not make sense at this point.
This is a constant battle of the headlines.
Time
Event
8:00 AM
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic gives welcoming remarks
9:15 AM
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks
10:00 AM
Wholesale inventories
10:30 AM
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks
12:30 PM
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks
12:45 PM
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks
2:00 PM
Minutes of Fed’s September FOMC meeting
5:00 PM
Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks
6:00 PM
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks
Our Lean: I still think we bounce, but I’m not sure how far the ES can go. I think 5820-5830 will act as a brick wall.
If the ES gaps higher, I am looking to sell the gap up and sell rallies.
On the buy-side, I think 5771 to 5765 should be initial support.
MiM and Daily Recap
Market Summary:
The ES made a low at 5725.50, then rallied up to 5770.75 on Globex before opening Tuesday’s regular session at 5772.50. After the open, the ES traded up to 5774.50 and then dropped 10.75 points down to 5763.75 at 9:40 a.m. It rallied 19 points up to 5782.75 and then sold off 9.75 points down to 5773.00 at 10:16 a.m.
After the drop, the ES rallied 22 points up to 5795.00 at 10:48 a.m. and then sold off 13 points down to 5782.00. It then rallied 11 points up to 5793.00 before dropping 9.50 points down to 5783.50. Another rally added 8.50 points up to 5792.00, followed by a drop of 17.50 points down to 5774.50 at 1:12 p.m.
From there, the ES rallied 23.75 points to a new high of 5806.25 at 3:42 p.m., pulled back to 5801.50, and traded at 5803.25 as the 3:50 p.m. imbalance showed $1.3 billion for sale. It then dropped to 5802.25, rallied up to 5806.75, but with the NQ turning offered, the ES ended up trading 5799.00-5799.50 on the 4:00 p.m. cash close.
After 4:00 p.m., the ES traded down to 5796.25, rallied 5.25 points up to a lower high at 5801.50, and settled at 5798.25, up 53.50 points or +0.93%. The NQ settled at 20,286.25, up 293.50 or +1.47%.
In the end, whether you like the markets or not, it was a significant rally. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was all about following the leader—the Nasdaq. As for the ES’s traded volume, it was pitiful at 1.09 million contracts.
Technical Edge
Daily Market Recap 📊
-
NYSE Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 51% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 47% Advance
-
Total Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 99 / 28
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 106 / 142
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NYSE TRIN: 1.40
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.71
Weekly Market Wrap-Up 📈
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NYSE Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
-
NYSE Advance/Decline: 43% Advance
-
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 40% Advance
-
Total Advance/Decline: 41% Advance
-
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 453 / 62
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 404 / 311
VIX: ~19.53
Guest Posts
David Dube Polaris Trading Group
@PolarisTrading
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Markets tested the lower edge (5725) of the multi-composite consolidation zone as buyers BTFD and rallied price up to top edge (5805) fulfilling primary 3 Day Cycle Targets. Prior range was 73 handles on 1.138M contracts exchanged. Check out the link to learn more about the Taylor Cycle and secure your FREE TRIAL.
For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 10.8.24
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
Transition into Cycle Day 3: The market closed near the high of the day, as bulls sense a potential opening to push above the recent broad consolidation, ending the stalemate.
Couple key events that potentially favor a bullish resolution is the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, followed by the all-important CPI print on Thursday. Given previous market responses, the trajectory clearly favors a bullish outcome, but as always we’ll defer to Mr. Market to be our guide.
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5795, initially targets 5815 – 5820 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5795, initially targets 5775 – 5770 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5805 PVA Low Edge = 5775 Prior POC = 5788
ES Chart (Multi-Day Composite Profile)
Thanks for reading, PTGDavid
S&P 500 — ES Futures
ES – S&P500 Futures – Daily
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NQ – Nasdaq 100 Futures – Daily
7 Days Ago
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Economic Calendar – Full Calendar
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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