Consumer confidence and JOLTS to help kick start volatility today.

Current direction still undecided.

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Our View

While I still think up, I have to admit that the closer we get to the election, the choppier it is getting. It’s just after 3:00, and the ES’s total trading range is only 20.75 points, from a high of 5880.75 down to 5860.00, and it’s been a chop fest. Total volume stands at 775k contracts, which includes the 202k traded on Globex. I think you guys know by now that I’m pretty much always bullish, and while I may bob and weave, the narrow range trade is anything but easy. Everything is a false start, and if you get caught up in the 11:00 to 3:00 trade, you are probably losing.

I make no bones about it; I have not been on it, but who is? In the last 2 days, I have lost over 8.6K. It’s not the end of the world, but most of it could have been avoided if I had followed what I preach: avoid the midday chop, which is set to get worse heading into the election.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES traded up to 5884.50 and opened Monday’s regular session at 5879.75. After the open, the ES traded up to a 5881.75 high, sold off down to 5871.50 at 9:32, and then sold off 15.25 points down to 5866.50 at 10:06. It rallied 13.25 points up to a lower high at 5879.75 at 10:30, then sold off 19.75 points down to 5860.00 at 12:03, rallied 11.5 points up to 5871.50, dropped 11.5 points down to 5860.00, and then rallied 12.25 points up to 5872.25. It pulled back 5.75 points to 5866.50 at 2:03, rallied 6.25 points up to 5872.75, then sold off 10 points down to 5862.75 at 2:48, rallied 9.5 points up to 5872.25, and dropped 10.25 points down to 5862.75 at 3:02. After the low, the ES rallied up to 5871.50 at 3:33, pulled back to 5867.00 at 3:42, and traded 5868.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.53 billion to sell. It sold off down to 5859.50 at 3:57 and traded 5862.50 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES traded back up to 5866.50 and settled at 5864.25, up 22.75 points or +0.39%. The NQ settled at 20,507.25, up 31.25 points or +0.15%, the YM settled at 42,624, up 303 points or +0.72%, the RTY settled at 2,258.00, up 36.5 points or +1.64%. Nat gas futures on the NYMEX fell 8.1% to $2.353/mmBtu, and West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery tumbled 6.1% Monday to $67.38 a barrel after Israel’s strikes on Iran avoided energy facilities.

In the end, it was a total chop shop. In terms of the overall tone, I think the big gap up took out a lot of the buying power in the first part of the day. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was low: 202k ES traded on Globex, and 784k traded on the day session for a total of 986k contracts.

Technical Edge

Fair Values for Oct-29-2024 are as follows, SP: 35.34 NQ: 138.44 Dow: 202.47

Guest Posts: Daniel Salguero @traddr.com

Starting this week off with a weak high from previous weeks and a weak low at the bottom of the profile that began in early October. Today, we have JOLTS data coming out after the open, along with tech earnings, month-end flows, and weak levels lingering from the past month, all capped by next week’s elections.

In short, expect a bit of volatility, with weak levels likely tested, if not cleaned up, as we approach next week’s major events and beyond.

Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – October 28, 2024

The session started with a “Line in the Sand” (LIS) at 5865, with this level being a significant support that held well overnight. PTGDavid highlighted an initial bullish target zone of 5880-5890, which was achieved early, signaling some initial upward momentum. The opening trading range was relatively narrow at just 10 handles, and David noted that volume was essential to breakouts—a key insight for traders observing the low volume throughout the day.

During the morning, PTGDavid managed successful trades in crude oil (CL), hitting all long targets. However, the NASDAQ (NQ) trades struggled due to choppy and tight price action, preventing clear directional momentum and making it difficult to define a trading edge. With no sustained breakout and the 5865 LIS repeatedly tested, David advised caution, remarking that traders should avoid getting “caught in the chop.”

The afternoon session remained subdued with low volume and limited range, with a key support level at 5860 creating a double bottom and a potential stop-hunt area. The sluggish market continued through the close, with David noting a $1.5 billion MOC sell imbalance but little actionable movement. By the end of the day, the 5860 support level held firm, setting it as a critical marker for Tuesday’s session.

Key Takeaways:

Overall, it was a cautious, low-volatility day with traders waiting for better momentum, ideally setting up for stronger opportunities on Tuesday.

Overall, a mixed economic environment provides room for both bullish and bearish plays across multiple sectors today.

Economic Calendar

Full Calendar

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!