Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Jobless Claims; 8:45ET Fed’s Hammack speaks; 10:00ET
Leading Index, Existing Home Sales; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity; 12:25ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 12:30ET Fed’s Hammack speaks; 12:45ET Fed’s Schmid speaks; 1:00ET 10-Year TIPS reopening; 4:40ET Fed’s Barr speaks

PHILADELPHIA FED FACTORY INDEX -5.5; EST. +8.0.

Highlights and News:  

• Ukraine Says Russia Used an ICBM as War Ratchets Up
• International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu, Israel’s former defense minister Gallant and Hamas official Mohammed Deif for crimes
  against humanity in Gaza
• US stock market now accounts for 202% of the US GDP, the most on record
• Nvidia says demand for new Blackwell chips is “staggering.”
• A sculpture of a banana and a piece of duct tape stuck to a wall sold for $6.2 million at Sotheby’s

World stocks fell as investors remained on edge about the war in Ukraine, while a revenue forecast from Nvidia Corp. failed to meet lofty expectations. Russia seemingly
launched an intercontinental ballistic missile at the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, further escalating hostilities and an alarming signal to Kyiv’s Western backers. If confirmed, it would appear to be the first use of an ICBM in combat since the weapon
was developed at the inception of the Cold War. Russia’s Defense Ministry said that Moscow takes a “responsible position” to avoiding nuclear conflict, while a Kremlin spokesman called Kyiv’s recent use of UK Storm Shadow missiles a new escalation.   

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures erased early overnight losses as Nvidia dipped more than 3% post-market after a revenue forecast disappoints. Nvidia assured investors that its new product lineup can
maintain the company’s artificial intelligence-fueled growth run, though the rush to get the chips out the door is proving more costly than expected. Nvidia shares have since turned positive ahead of the bell and strong results from Snowflake Inc. helped sentiment.
 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, DJI +0.4%. 

In pre-market trading, Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) gains 22% after the company gave a better-than-expected sales outlook, suggesting newly launched products are receiving
a strong reception. Baidu ADRs (BIDU) falls about 2% after reporting a 3% sales decline in 3Q, citing weakness in online marketing amid a sluggish Chinese economy. BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) rises 7% after the warehouse-club operator increased some of its annual
projections. Dream Finders Homes (DFH) climbs 8% amid news the company will replace Haynes International in the S&P SmallCap 600 prior to the open on Nov. 25. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, rallied as much as
11%. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) declines about 2% after posting quarterly results.

European gauges reversed early losses to trade mixed as gains across heavyweight energy stocks offset concerns over a potential escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Potential trade levies during a second Trump presidency aren’t expected to significantly alter the outlook for inflation in Europe, and wouldn’t derail the ECB’s easing plans, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. The Stoxx 600 index is
roughly flat with insurance and energy names leading gains while personal goods and real estate lags. JD Sports Fashion was a big decliner as the weather and US election hit the sportswear retailer’s sales. Galderma Group AG also fell after holders of the
Swiss dermatology company offered a stake at a discount. However, Novartis AG shares edged higher after the Swiss drugmaker raised its medium-term sales guidance thanks to upbeat expectations for new cancer and immunological disease medicines.  Stoxx 600 is
flat, DAX +0.3%, CAC -0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.35%. Insurance +1.1%, Energy +0.9%, Financial Services +0.5%. REITs -0.8%, Personal Goods -0.7%.

Shares in Asia declined as some of the region’s tech heavyweights slid following Nvidia Corp.’s lackluster revenue forecast.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.4%,
with Adani’s units among the worst performers. Adani Group units’ shares tumbled after US prosecutors charged Gautam Adani with helping to drive a $250 million bribery scheme to Indian government officials for solar energy contracts. Chinese stocks in Hong
Kong fell, while those traded in the mainland were little changed. Shares of Japanese cable manufacturers rose, defying declines in Japan’s major indexes, after Nvidia’s data center unit posted record quarterly revenue. Philippines -1.6%, Thailand -1.5%, Hang
Seng Tech -1.25%, Nikkei 225 -0.85%, Taiwan -0.6%, Hang Seng Index -0.5%, Sensex -0.5%, Singapore -0.1%, Kospi -0.1%, ASX 200 -0.05%. Vietnam +1%, CSI 300 +0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly richer on the day across the curve as focus remains on escalation of Russia-Ukraine hostilities. US session includes weekly jobless claims
data, four scheduled Fed speakers and an auction of 10-year TIPS.  10-year little changed near 4.40%. Fed President Susan Collins said more rate cuts are needed, but policymakers should proceed carefully. Fed official Tom Barkin told the FT he expects US inflation
to continue dropping. John Williams told Barron’s controlling price growth is “not quite there yet.”  An expected decision on President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary is also in focus.  

METALS: 

Gold rose for a fourth day, as investors focused on an escalation of Russia’s war with Ukraine. Bullion is clawing back losses seen in the immediate aftermath of
Donald Trump’s victory in the US election, which sparked a rally in the US dollar. Front month gold futures tested the 50-day moving average around $2676 before paring some of its gain. Spot gold +0.6%, Silver +0.4%, Copper -0.5%.

ENERGY:   

Oil rose on news of Russia’s ICBM use, which came as part of a larger missile barrage targeting central Ukraine early on Thursday.  European natural gas prices rose
to the highest in a year with fears around the Russia-Ukraine war growing. Trump plans to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline when he returns to the White House, Politico reported.  There have also been some bullish signs for prices in recent days, with premiums
of refined products over crude climbing to multi-month highs. In the US, a proxy of the margins obtained from turning crude into gasoline and diesel hit the highest level since August as Gulf Coast fuel makers step up production to meet rising exports.  WTI
+2.2%, Brent +2%, US Nat Gas +4.7%, RBOB +1.5%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar eased while the yen strengthened after Governor Kazuo Ueda gave the clearest hint yet that the central bank’s next monetary policy
meeting will involve a live discussion over whether to raise interest rates. The euro reversed modest gains against the dollar after Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said potential tariffs during a second Trump presidency wouldn’t derail
the ECB’s easing plans. The PBOC set a stronger-than-expected reference rate for the yuan as it continued to support the currency. G-10 flows have been muted with real money names seen on the sidelines this week.  US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.2%,
USDJPY -0.6%, AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD -0.1%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDNOK -0.2%. 

Spot Bitcoin +3.3%, Spot Ethereum +9%. Trump’s transition team has begun to hold discussions over whether to create a White House post dedicated to digital-asset
policy.  Bitcoin is closing in on the $100,000 level.  MicroStrategy Inc., the largest publicly traded corporate holder of the cryptocurrency, rallied as much as 11% in early hours trading.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Aclaris (ACRS) Raised to Overweight at Cantor
• Anglogold (AU) Raised to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $30
• Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS CN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT C$81
• Buenaventura (BUENAVC1 PE) ADRs Raised to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $15
• DT Midstream (DTM) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $115
• Evertec (EVTC) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $35
• Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) Raised to Buy at Veritas Investment Research Co
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Raised to Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
• Pebblebrook (PEB) Raised to Buy at Compass Point; PT $17
• Piedmont Lithium (PLL) Raised to Neutral at Macquarie; PT $13.50
• RBC (RY CN) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT C$180
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Raised to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $4
• SFL Corp (SFL) Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT $13
• Downgrades
• Adient (ADNT) Cut to Neutral at BofA
• Golden Ocean (GOGL) Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT $12.50
• Grab Holdings (GRAB) Cut to Hold at China Renaissance; PT $5.40
• Hanover (THG) Cut to Neutral at Janney Montgomery; PT $176
• Ingersoll Rand (IR) Cut to Sell at CFRA
• National Bank of Canada (NA CN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
• NIO Inc. (NIO) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Macquarie; PT $4.80
• Pyxis Oncology (PYXS) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Rollins (ROL) Cut to Sell at CFRA
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Cut to Sell at DZ Bank; PT C$127.21
• Target (TGT) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $138
• TD Bank (TD CN) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT C$79
• Travelers (TRV) Cut to Neutral at Janney Montgomery; PT $280
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Walmart (WMT) Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $91
• XPeng (XPEV) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $12.50
• ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) Cut to Sell at Fearnley; PT $20
• Initiations
• 4D Molecular (FDMT) Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $8
• AerCap Holdings (AER) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $119
• Air Lease (AL) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $65
• Amentum (AMTM) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $30
• Apellis Pharma (APLS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $31
• Canada Carbon (CCB CN) Rated New Corporate at Alternative Resource Capital
• GE Vernova (GEV) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $385
• International General Insurance (IGIC) US Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $30
• Marex Group (MRX) Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $33
• Merus BV (MRUS) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $73
• Northeast Bank (NBN) Rated New Market Perform at KBW; PT $102
• Stardust Power (SDST) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $13
• Thermo Fisher (TMO) Rated New Buy at CMB International; PT $670
• UMB Financial (UMBF) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $156
• Vera Therapeutics (VERA) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $70

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke