Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET JOLTS Job Openings; 12:15ET Fed’s Daly speaks; 12:35ET Fed’s Kugler speaks; 1:30ET
Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 3:45ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks again

Highlights and News:  

• China bans exports of several materials to the US
  
• Chinese leaders to discuss 2025 growth targets and stimulus plans next week
• Israel will broaden retaliation to include Lebanese targets beyond Hezbollah if the ceasefire collapses
• META’s Mark Zuckerberg seeks an ‘active role’ in Trump’s tech policies
  

World markets edged higher, supported by hopes China’s leadership will approve more stimulus at a major meeting next week. China announced an outright ban on exports
of several materials with high-tech and military applications, in a tit-for-tat move after the Biden administration escalated technology curbs. Gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials are no longer allowed to be shipped to America, the Ministry
of Commerce said. French lawmakers will hold a no-confidence vote Wednesday, with far-right leader Marine Le Pen expected to join forces with a left-wing coalition to topple the government. For the rest of the week, global investors will be watching a barrage
of US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve speakers that will help shape the outlook for interest rates.   

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are muted as traders awaited a busy line-up of Fed speakers and data releases for clues on the path for interest rates. Contracts for the S&P 500 are flat after the
index notched its 54th closing high of the year on Monday. Surveys since Donald Trump’s election victory show American companies are growing more upbeat about their prospects in anticipation of more pro-business policies and less regulatory burden. Trump said
he’ll block the Nippon Steel takeover of US Steel, instead pledging to revive it with tariffs and tax incentives.
Traders are now awaiting a crucial payroll report due Friday, which is expected to show US hiring jumped in November after hurricanes and a major strike action.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.03%, Nasdaq -0.05%, Russell 2000 +0.03%, DJI -0.05%. 

In pre-market trading, AT&T (T) gains 3% after predicting sustained profit growth over the next three years. CleanSpark (CLSK) falls 8% after the bitcoin mining company
filed to delay its 10-K annual filing. Coherus BioSciences (CHRS) rises 23% on a plan to divest its Udencya franchise to Intas Pharmaceuticals for up to $558.4 million. Credo Technology (CRDO) jumps 32% after the communications equipment company reported second-quarter
results that beat expectations. Janux Therapeutics (JANX) soars 74% after the biotechnology firm announced positive updated interim clinical data for its oncology lead asset, JANX007. TransMedics (TMDX) drops 6% after narrowing its full-year revenue forecast.
Zscaler (ZS) falls 7% after the security software company gave a forecast for adjusted second-quarter earnings that missed expectations.

European gauges advance for a fourth straight session, with Germany’s DAX briefly rising above 20,000 for the first time. ASML Holding NV was among the biggest tech
gainers, having reaffirmed its net sales forecast for 2025. Data from Citigroup showed positioning in the Euro Stoxx 50 remains bearish. Still, strategists at the bank said current loss positions indicate a low risk of a forced selloff. The benchmark Stoxx
600 is underperforming the S&P 500 by over 25 percentage points in dollar terms this year, the widest gap in this century. Stoxx 600 +0.4%, DAX +0.15%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.8%. Retail +1.2%, Energy +1.2%, Banks +1%. Telecom -0.3%, Real Estate -0.2%, Insurance
-0.2%.

Shares in Asia rose with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining 1.2%, led by chip stocks. Key benchmarks gained more than 1% in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan after the
US unveiled measures to limit China’s access to crucial tech but stopped short of earlier proposals. Chinese stocks reversed earlier losses after news that the country’s top leaders plan to start a key annual economic work conference next Wednesday to map
out growth targets and stimulus plans for 2025.  Shares of Chinese retailers and logistics companies rose after the nation issues plans to promote wholesale and retail industry. Indonesia +2.1%, Nikkei 225 +1.9%, Kospi +1.9%, Taiwan +1.3%, Thailand +1.2%,
Hang Seng Index +1%, Singapore +0.9%, Sensex +0.7%, ASX 200 +0.6%, CSI 300 +0.1%. Vietnam -0.1%, Philippines -0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed in early US session with the curve steeper as long-end losses lift 30-year yields by ~3bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads today’s wides.
2s10s, 5s30s spreads steeper by 2bp; 10-year around 4.21%. Three Fed officials made clear yesterday they expect rates to be reduced again over the next year. Traders are factoring in around a 70% likelihood that the Fed cuts by 25 basis points this month,
up from a 55% chance on Monday.

METALS: 

Gold inched higher, trading within a narrow range as investors look ahead to US data that could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision this month.  US
nonfarm payroll figures due Friday are set to provide an indicator of the nation’s economic health as the Fed prepares for its Dec. 18 meeting. Several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are also scheduled to speak at various events later this week. 
Spot gold +0.1%, Silver +1.1%, Copper +1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil rose ahead of an OPEC+ supply meeting, buoyed by hopes China will approve more stimulus at a major leadership summit next week. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is making progress
towards an agreement to delay its oil-production revival by another three months. The alliance is due to finalize plans at an online meeting on Thursday. OPEC’s crude production increased for a second month as Libya continued to recover from a political feud
that had shuttered its biggest oil field. In the Middle East, holes continued to appear in a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, with nine people killed in strikes on two southern Lebanese towns shortly after Hezbollah fired missiles on an
Israeli military position in the disputed Shebaa Farms area on Monday. WTI +1.3%, Brent +1.2%, US Nat Gas -1.9%, RBOB +1.2%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar slipped ahead of a series of speeches from Fed officials,  while tariff risks and weakness in China’s economy pushed the yuan to a
one-year low. Traders are waiting on US employment data on Friday to finesse bets on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates later in the month. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD +0.15%, USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD -0.1%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDNOK
-0.3%.  

Spot Bitcoin -0.6%, Spot Ethereum -0.3%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alamos Gold (AGI CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$33
• Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $17
• America’s Car-Mart (CRMT) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $50
• Anglogold (AU) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $31
• Axon (AXON) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $700
• CenterPoint Energy (CNP) Raised to Buy at UBS
• Century Aluminum (CENX) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe
• Citigroup (C) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $82
• Credo Technology (CRDO) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $80
• CVS (CVS) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $66
• Dana (DAN) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $16
• DTE Energy (DTE) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $143
• Integer (ITGR) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $160
• Kroger (KR) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $73
• Nevro (NVRO) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $5
• PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $63
• State Street (STT) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $120
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $85
• Upstart (UPST) Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT $95
• Downgrades
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management
• Cavco Industries (CVCO) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $480
• Cousins Properties (CUZ) Cut to Market Perform at BMO
• Crane Co. (CR) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $176
• EQT Corp (EQT) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $49
• FedEx (FDX) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $316
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Cut to Hold at Mirae Asset Securities
• iRhythm (IRTC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $86
• JBG SMITH (JBGS) Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $15
• Kroger (KR) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $60
• Ollie’s Bargain (OLLI) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $95
• Parker-Hannifin (PH) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $691
• Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $36
• Initiations
• AGCO (AGCO) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $101
• ASM Intl (ASM NA) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $561
• ASML (ASML NA) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $858
• Duolingo (DUOL) Rated New Buy at Sealand Securities
• Eversource (ES) Rated New Underperform at Jefferies
• Everus Construction Group (ECG) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Foraco International (FAR CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$4.25
• Infineon (IFX GR) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $40
• Lamb Weston (LW) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $85
• STMicro (STMPA FP) ADRs Reinstated Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $28

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke