06-02-2015

 

I am going to step away from the normal recap I usually do. Its hard to write about the same thing over and over, so talking about who MrTopStep is, and what we do sounds like as good idea as any.

First off, where did the name MrTopStep come from? It came from the top step of the S&P futures pit where all the big trading was done. There used to be hundreds of stop step brokers over the years, but like the local population, it “thinned” as more orders were routed to the machines. Back then our desk was a major player, but in order to stay in the game, you had to offer electronic execution and options, and our desk did neither, until one day I decided to move the desk down in front of the S&P options and throw some Globex terminals into the desk. A lot has changed since back then…

One of the primary goals of our S&P desk on the floor was to keep up the customers with “flow”…who’s buying, who’s selling? Any program arbitrage, stops, news, levels, just an all around who’s doing what. Sure we took the big orders, but communicating with the customers about what’s going on, was then, and is now, something we feel is critical to letting the customer know what you’re hearing and selling. Like I said; it was important then and it’s important now. Its something that comes natural to Brian and the guys on the desk. They do not even have to think about it. Phone rings and it’s not just hello its “anything going on?” Well there is not a lot going on today but as we all know that can change, and will change at any minute and there is nothing wrong with being in the know.

THE COLLECTIVE

I think MrTopStep is at the top of the list when it comes to innovation. Our trading room is not just a “room” it is an experience. Live MarketDelta charts running, the sound of the CME trading floor, and a “collective” of intelligent traders that not only do the work, they trade it. The days of being in a room with one guy trying to call and make daily futures trades is a thing of the past. I hear people say “this guy really makes money” but then they go on, and he has 10 people in his room. I am not sure I get it; a winning trader that no one follows? Be that as it may, I personally think there are just too many moving parts for one person to constantly stay on top of it, and for those that do, they eventually burn out so what good is that? So, a long time ago I gave up the idea of just one guy calling trades out, and started bringing in what most would say are really trading their own money. Like Stewart Solaka from stewart@ChicagoStock (http://www.chicagostocktrading.com ) who is one of the top pivot traders in the business. I trade his levels everyday. He is not just trading ES, but he will move to silver or crude when the set ups are correct.  Then who can say anything bad about Tim Haefke from TopNotchTrading or topnotch@TNTFutures (http://topnotchtrading.com). He worked on the floor at the Dean Witter S&P deak and then took over as head of research and come up with a great formula for trading the bonds and the S&Ps. Then in comes William Blount whose “numbah’s” (levels) along with some colorful commentary keeps the traders knowing “exactly” where the next level is. But on top of that are several other great people like Boston, or FrogMan, or BoBM, or any of the people in the room. I like doing the work at night but I also buy TopNotch’s daily sheet. Yes thats right…no freebees for MrTopStep from TopNotch. I want the coverage, I pay for it, but I have him down on the floor providing flow also. Throughout MrTopSteps 8 years, I believe this crew can take on any crew in the biz and come out on top. Its just too powerful.

NEW MiM

I can not say enough about the MiM II. I am going to say it like it is, no bs. The original MiM I was great, and it kicked ass for a long time, but when the data slowed, it was off so much I looked at it but thought it had turned into a big fade. Thats is not at all how I see the MiM II. With new partners on the NYSE, the MiM II has not only brought back the customers, its base is widening. Marlin re-wrote the MiM Meter and has included the MiM trading room for the same price. Yes, you can go in and see exactly what’s going on with the MiM, and what trade Marlin is making everyday. My personal feeling on the MiM now, is it’s a must have tool for “every” level of traders. From the big bank trading desk, to the Chicago prop shop trying to gain an edge on the close, to the retail trader trying to pick up a few points late in the day, it’s a great indicator.

And, last but I hope not least, you will get to see me in action talking about the markets, and my “feel” for direction. Its what I do for the PitBull now and then and it’s what I do for the room. I don’t tell them to buy or sell, I try and detect big volume swings. Call it out when I think a low is in, and try and catch a flyer. I am not as good as the above mentioned but I feel a lot safer being part of the collective than trading by myself. I also think that when you get to know everyone, its a place to go to be around other like minded traders, and I cannot see how that can’t help in today’s high flying world of computerized trading.

In Asia 9 out of 11 markets closed lower, and in Europe 8 out of 12 markets quoted are trading lower this morning. Today’s economic calendar starts with Motor Vehicle Sales, Gallup US ECI, Redbook, Factory Orders, 4 week T-bill Auction.

Our View: I am sticking with my idea that the for first week of June, you have to take this one day at a time, it’s so skittish. One minute the ESM15 looks like its going to take off late in the day, and then the MiM starts showing MOC sell $1.5bil, and down go the futures. As soon as I Tweeted that there was “decent” size showing on the sell side, the ESM dropped 3 handles. Today there is a light economic schedule, but be forewarned about the Greek headline algos. Our view is the ES has to go down to go back up.

“The Dip, The Rip, and The MrTopStep Bootcamp”

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  • In Asia 9 of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp. +1.69%, Hang Seng -0.47%, Nikkei -0.13%
  • In Europe 8 out of 12 markets are trading : DAX -0.69%, FTSE -0.18%, MICEX +0.97% , GD.AT -1.06% at CT
  • Fair Value: S&P -1.78 , Nasdaq -0.68 , DOW -10.07
  • Total Volume: 1.33mil ESM and 3.2k SPM traded
  • Economic calendar: Motor Vehicle Sales, Gallup US ECI, Redbook, Factory Orders and a 4 Week-bill Auction
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