Bank Day

by Danny Riley
on July 15, 2025

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  • This discipline prevented premature reversals and helped traders lean long with confidence.

  • Adapting to Choppy Conditions

    • As the day progressed, volatility dried up.

    • David acknowledged the “tight choppy trading,” emphasizing that it’s okay to stand aside when edge diminishes.

    • The group discussed how low volume makes breakout trades less reliable.

  • Risk Management Tools

    • The importance of trailing stops, average cost basis tools, and profit scaling was highlighted.

    • John B noted he planned to re-run practice trades to better capture available range—showing a strong focus on continuous improvement.

    • Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!

     

    Our View

    The ES sold off down to 6259.75 on Globex, opened the regular session at 6294.25, rallied up to 6294, sold off down to 6280.50, and then rallied up to 6315.00 with a lot of sideways to up “chop.” The ES downticked late in the day and traded 63 after the MiM came out light show 400M to buy.

    In the end, it was another day of tariff headlines and threats, which the index markets took in stride. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was another good example of buying the early weakness/tariff drops. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was light at 897K total.

    Unlike yesterday, we have a lot of fireworks set to go off today. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo report earnings at 7:00, and Citibank reports at 8:00 am. We also have the CPI and four Fed speakers. So far, the inflation data has largely defied fears that Trump’s levies will fuel price rises. WSJ-polled economists now project inflation of 3% in December. That’s down from a forecast of 3.6% in April, but up from projections at the start of 2025. This is probably where all the talk about interest rate cuts is coming from while he continues his push to get Powell out while calling for a rate cut to 3%.

    I think we can all say there are a lot of uncertainties, but there is one that has warning lights all over it: the widening war in Ukraine. They say North Korea has given Russia 3 million artillery shells. Kim Jong Un will continue to “unconditionally support and encourage” Russia’s war in Ukraine, while the US is stepping up its support for Ukraine. President Trump announced shipments that include missiles, air defense weaponry, and artillery shells, and gave Russia 50 days to make a deal or else face 100% “secondary tariffs,” seemingly referring to a plan to impose tariffs on countries like China and India that buy Russian oil.

    The fear is Russia is gearing up for a larger summer invasion and that will target Kieve. There have been 135 nuclear threats against the West between February 2022 and December 2024. Putin made 27 of these, with the numbers increasing each year: five in 2022, nine in 2023, and thirteen in 2024. And then you look over in the China Sea, which has been getting more heated mainly with the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan, to name a few. It’s hard to not believe all this isn’t coordinated for a larger push.

    I have not heard from many banks, but BofA is saying there’s not much upside left for stocks. On the other hand, a “break” in the economy this summer, while potentially leading to interest-rate cuts, could be a sign of weakening corporate profits or perhaps even a recession.

    I think if the Fed lowers, the markets will sell off. Today’s CPI should give the public another look at rising inflation. Economists and market analysts are predicting that the June 2025 CPI report could show an acceleration in inflation.

    I think it would be economic suicide if the Fed were to lower rates. Will they? I don’t think Powell is in any hurry to lower, but Trump keeps hammering on him.

     

    Our Lean

    Welcome to bank day. My guess is the banks have been adjusting even before Trump started really hammering away on the tariffs, but today I think we will see two-way price action, larger ranges, and higher volume. You take the everyday headlines we see, then you throw in the earnings, the eco reports, and all the Fed talk, and we should see a significant uptick in volume and trade.

    Will it last? I’m not sure. There are a lot of other big names reporting and Friday’s $3.4 trillion options expiration, which the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows the Dow down 15 of the last 24 occasions (down 4.6% in 2002 and down 2.5% in 2010). If the ES falls after the CPI number, I am buying it before or on the 9:30 open.

    Like I said in the MTS chat yesterday:

    IMPRO : Dboy : (12:58:58 PM) : slow boat I knew the ES was going to rally but I looked too much
    IMPRO : Dboy : (12:59:17 PM) : same deal as I said about how the gaps work now
    IMPRO : Dboy : (1:00:08 PM) : they rally off the gap down and then sell off, it’s that secondary push that you buy
    IMPRO : Dboy : (1:00:30 PM) : it’s like the crowd got double short into the new lows
    IMPRO : Dboy : (1:00:37 PM) : it was never going down
    IMPRO : Dboy : (1:01:51 PM) : you buy the double push when the trend is higher

    The other side of this is what happens if we rip higher? I can’t rule out selling a large gap up and buying the pullbacks, but again, switch-hitting can be hard and throw you off the trend if you don’t get out fast enough. I can’t say it’s happening today, but I really think 6350 and 6380 are coming.

     

    MiM and Daily Recap

    ES Futures Market Recap – July 15, 2025

    The overnight Globex session for the ES futures began with a pronounced gap down, marking a low at 6263.00 at 18:00 ET. This initial selloff reflected a drop of 49.75 points (-0.79%) from prior levels. A swift rebound followed, lifting price to a local high at 6280.50 by 18:45, recovering 17.50 points (+0.28%). However, the bounce lost momentum, and the market trended sideways to lower throughout the night, establishing a fresh low at 6259.75 by 03:15 ET, another 20.75-point decline (-0.33%). From that pre-dawn low, the ES gradually climbed into the early morning hours approaching the cash open.

    The regular trading session opened at 6294.25. Early action saw a two-railroad candle 12 points down and up on the 5-minute chart gave the bulls some confidence. By 11:37 ET, the market printed a high of 6307.00, gaining 27.25 points (+0.43%) from the morning pre-market low. A minor retracement ensued, finding support at 6298.75 at 12:26. The advance resumed into early afternoon, marking the session’s high at 6315.00 by 14:32, representing a 16.25-point rise (+0.26%) from the preceding pullback.

    Into the later afternoon, momentum waned. A series of lower highs and lows emerged: 6313.50 at 15:56, 6309.75 at 18:00, and 6305.00 at 18:00. The final downswing pressed to 6300.75 at 19:03, where sellers capped the day’s range. The regular session closed at 6310.75, reflecting a 16.50-point gain (+0.26%) from the open.

    Comparing session-to-session changes, the full day closed 35.50 points higher (+0.57%) from the prior open, ending at 6309.50. Notably, while Globex had been mildly negative (-0.33%), the regular hours reversed the tone with sustained buying through midday.  The cash session gained 11.75 from the previous cash close.

    Overall, the market tone was moderately constructive, as buyers defended successive pullbacks and lifted the index above the Globex lows. The Market-on-Close imbalance data had little to show in the way of dollar value.

    Volume was slow, with the regular session trading around 714,000 contracts, reinforcing the legitimacy of the intraday rally. In summary, the ES futures closed firm, with afternoon consolidation and strong MOC buying interest pointing to a cautiously bullish backdrop heading into the next session.

    How to read the MIM

     

    Technical Edge 

    Fair Values for July 15, 2025:

    • SP: 40.78

    • NQ: 171.22

    • Dow: 223.33

    Daily Market Recap 📊

    For Monday, July 14, 2025

    • NYSE Breadth: 55.7% Upside Volume
    • Nasdaq Breadth: 62.9% Upside Volume
    • Total Breadth: 62.1% Upside Volume
    • NYSE Advance/Decline: 51.9% Advance
    • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 57.7% Advance
    • Total Advance/Decline: 55.5% Advance
    • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 86 / 23
    • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 154 / 78
    • NYSE TRIN: 0.79
    • Nasdaq TRIN: 0.77

    Weekly Breadth Data  📈

    For Week Ending Friday, July 11, 2025

    • NYSE Breadth: 49.6% Upside Volume
    • Nasdaq Breadth: 61.2% Upside Volume
    • Total Breadth: 56.9% Upside Volume
    • NYSE Advance/Decline: 44.8% Advance
    • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 44.8% Advance
    • Total Advance/Decline: 44.8% Advance
    • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 264 / 35
    • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 453 / 157
    • NYSE TRIN: 0.81
    • Nasdaq TRIN: 0.50

     

    ES – Levels

    The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6301.50. This is the critical level to monitor for directional bias. If ES stays above this level, the short-term sentiment remains constructive, favoring buying on pullbacks.

    Currently, ES is trading around 6338.00, indicating strength above the bull/bear line. If this momentum persists, the immediate upside target is 6337.50, our upper range target for today. A sustained move beyond this level could open the door to further gains toward 6359.00 and then 6371.50.

    On the downside, initial support is near 6315.00 and 6311.00. A break below these could pressure the market back toward 6274.00, with deeper targets down to 6265.50 and the lower range target of 6259.75. A decisive loss of these levels would increase the probability of testing 6231.50.

    Overall, the trend is bullish above 6301.50, but traders should watch for potential reversals if price action fails to hold above this line.

    NQ – Levels

    The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 22,995.25. This is the pivotal level for determining the day’s directional bias. Trading above this area suggests a more bullish stance, while remaining below keeps the market under pressure.

    Currently, NQ is trading around 23,181.25, which is firmly above the bull/bear line, indicating that buyers are in control for now. If the price holds this strength, the immediate resistance is at 23,066.50 and then at 23,154.75, which is the upper range target for today. A push above this level would likely bring further upside toward 23,304.75.

    On the downside, any retracement back below 22,995.25 shifts momentum to the bears. The first level to monitor is 22,860.75, followed by 22,835.75 and the lower range target at 22,685.75. A break through these support areas could open the door for an extended decline.

    Overall, the bias remains bullish while price sustains above 22,995.25, but traders should stay alert for reversals if NQ fails to defend this bull/bear threshold.

    .

     

    Calendars

    Economic Calendar

    Today

    Important Upcoming

    Earnings

    Full Calendar

     

    Trading Room Summaries

    Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, July 14, 2025

    Overall Tone

    • The day began calmly, with PTGDavid emphasizing patience and caution amid summer consolidation and lower volatility.

    • The market traded mostly within expected ranges, with measured opportunities rather than explosive moves.

    Positive Trades & Key Highlights

    • Early Bull Scenario Successfully Played Out

      • The initial plan was to lean long above 6275 targeting 6290–6295.

      • This target zone was fulfilled by 9:32 AM, validating the bullish thesis.

      • Participants had a chance to scale profits and manage trailing stops effectively.

    • CL (Crude Oil) Open Range Shorts

      • First and second targets were hit before midday.

      • By 2:05 PM, all Open Range Short targets in CL were fulfilled, demonstrating disciplined execution in a tight environment.

    • NQ Opening Range Play

      • Partial profits were taken (TGT 1 filled), and stops were trailed prudently.

      • Even though range tightened later, this showed good trade management.

    • S&P 500 & Nasdaq

      • The indexes reached session highs mid-day, confirming continued bullish conditions.

      • David advised maintaining a long bias on dips unless a structural reversal developed—a key lesson in trend following.

    Lessons & Takeaways

    • Trusting Your Path Over FOMO

      • The daily wisdom quote on FOMO set the tone: don’t feel pressured to jump into trades without alignment.

      • David reinforced that reference prices are guides, not rigid entries—patience and context matter.

    • Cycle Day 3 Statistics

      • Traders reviewed the historical 90.84% probability of a positive 3-day cycle.

      • This statistic helped frame expectations for the rally attempt above the CD1 low (6287.50).

    • Structural Confirmation Over Prediction

      • Several times, David reminded the group:

    Market Context

    • Ongoing geopolitical and macro themes were discussed:

      • Trump’s tariff threats on Russia.

      • Corporate earnings season and potential market-moving headlines ahead.

      • Anticipation for the CPI release the next day, likely to inject more volatility.

    Summary of the Day

    Despite “anemic volume,” the room executed several clean setups—particularly in the early bull scenario and crude oil shorts. The day was a solid example of patient trading, respecting structure, and managing risk in a summer consolidation environment.

    Key Takeaway:
    Stay disciplined, trade the plan, and don’t force trades when the market is stuck in a range. Opportunities will always come to those who wait.

     

    Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, July 15, 2025

    • Tariffs & Inflation: Market focus remains on escalating tariffs after President Trump announced new duties (20–50%) on imports from Canada, Mexico, and the EU. Retaliatory tariffs worth $84B are expected. June CPI data (due 8:30am ET) likely shows higher prices as early tariffs filter through, reversing May’s softness driven by falling car and apparel costs.

    • Fed Outlook: The tariff impact raises uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path, though markets still expect rates to remain unchanged in the near term. Inventory replacement as companies front-run tariffs will be key over the next quarter.

    • Earnings: Premarket reports from Albertsons, AMX, BlackRock, Citigroup, Ericsson, JPMorgan, State Street, BNY Mellon, and Wells Fargo. JB Hunt and Omnicom report after the bell.

    • Economic Calendar: CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30am ET. Fed speakers scheduled throughout the day: Bowman (9:15), Barr (12:45), Barkin (1:00), Collins (2:45).

    • Market Technicals: Volatility is low with summer trading in full swing (ES 5-day ADR: 46.25). No significant overnight large trader flows. The ES remains below all-time highs, with bulls and bears both positioned to respond. Key levels:

      • Resistance: 6388/91, 6459/64

      • Support: 6127/32, 6088/93, 5655/60

    Affiliate Disclosure: This newsletter may contain affiliate links, which means we may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase. This comes at no additional cost to you and helps us continue providing valuable content. We only recommend products or services we genuinely believe in. Thank you for your support!
    Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
    Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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    This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.

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