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Our View

Globex

The ES rallied up to the 6309 level on Globex just after the open, pulled back to the 6300 area, back and filled, and then shot up to the 6335.00 level just before 10:00 pm as news broke about NVDA saying the Trump administration agreed to reinstate sales of key AI chips to China. It sold off to under 6310 and rallied back up to the 6333 area, back and filled in a 5-point range until 5:30 am, traded up to the 6342 area, and then sold off down to the 6325 level at 8:23. It then shot up to 6343.00 by 8:30 ET when the Consumer Price Index showed inflation picked up in June at a 2.7% annual rate.

Car prices fell 0.3%, apparel rose 0.4%, rents fell 2.9%, food increased 0.3%, and energy prices reversed a loss in May and rose 0.9% but were still lower than last year.

Day Session

The ES opened Tuesday’s regular session at 6338.00 and sold off down to 6302.75 at 10:55, rallied up to the 6317 level, and then got hit by five separate sell programs, which pushed it down to a new low at 6291.75. It rallied up to the 6312 area and then got hit by another round of sell programs that pushed the ES down to a new low at 6291.25, rallied a little when the MIM came out $1.5 billion to buy, and traded 6282.25 on the 4:00 cash close. It then sold off down to 6272.50 and settled at 6273.75, down 37.25 points or -0.59%.

I said early on that the NQ would not go back to unchanged, but it ended up closing down 0.08%.

In the end, it was a big sell-the-news event supported by a very weak bond market and bond auction. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was all about selling the open and staying short. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher at 1.23 million contracts traded.

Bond Scare

I asked @HandleStats about the bonds after the May 22 low at 109.20 vs. the September contract after the future rallied up to the 116.03 level and quickly reversed lower. I remember Rich saying that if the (ZBU25) started to take out that low, the bonds could end up in a free fall. Yesterday, they broke down to the 111.30 level.

Look, I want to make good calls; it pains me when I don’t. But when Jeff Hirsch interviewed me a few months ago, the last question he asked me was if there was one spot in the economy that bothered me the most, and I said it was the Treasury market. Then I flipped to the dollar and the interest on the national debt, which is going through the roof.

War Is In The Air

After Trump agreed to a multi-billion military delivery to Ukraine with some of our most sophisticated weapons in the US’s arsenal that can reach Moscow, there were two other stories.

The first is about North Korea supplying 50% of the arms Russia is using in the war. The later headline was Chinese President Xi Jinping pledging to deepen support for Russia after Trump threatened to levy sweeping secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners if the Kremlin does not stop its war in Ukraine in 50 days.

Call me old-fashioned, but I also said the path of the war in Ukraine was laid out a few years ago when Xi and Putin met in Beijing in February of 2022, when they declared a “no limits” partnership during the Beijing Winter Olympics, weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That was when the state planners started laying out how to draw the US into a wider conflict.

Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Price extended the prior cycle’s rally up to the CD1 Penetration Level near 6340 during the Pre-RTH Session. Cash opening failed to auction higher than the 6325 – 6330 zone outlined in prior DTS Briefing 7.15.25. The remainder of the session was a slow drip as every rally attempt by the bulls was “swatted” back down as sellers were clearly in-control of this session’s rhythms.

The “trap door” was a break of the 6300 Line-in-the Sand (LIS) level as price ” flushed down” to fulfil Briefing’s 6295 – 6275 target zone Textbook as to the continued accuracy of PTG DTS Briefing’s acumen. Range was 70 handles on 1.230M contracts exchanged

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 7.15.25

FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle 

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Price closed near the lows of the session, with anticipation of a “spill-over” into today’s trading before this cycle’s rally begins.

Normal for a Cycle Day 2 (CD2) would be an expectation of some balancing/consolidation MATD type rhythms to adjust for the CD1 selling and weak close (near the low of day).

Fed Chair Powell continues his testimony today as momentum has shifted to the sell-side, within the context of the multi-day range. Substantial weakness below 6275 opens the trap door further to explore the 6250 – 6245 lower range edges.

“PLAY YOUR GAME!”

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6275+-, initially targets 6290 – 6295 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6275+-, initially targets 6250 – 6245 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6337    PVA Low Edge = 6300         Prior POC = 6305

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

MiM and Daily Recap

The overnight Globex session began with a modest upward drift, opening at 6309.50 and advancing to an early high of 6343.00 by 6:30 AM ET. This move represented a 33.5-point climb from the prior cash close, helping to set a constructive tone ahead of the cash market open. ES dropped further pre-market, dropping to a low of 6325 around 8:20 AM. Another attempt to regain upward momentum lifted prices back to 6343.00 by 8:30 AM as the markets adjusted to the PCI news.

While pre-market participants were happy with the 8:30 news, the open at 6338 was sharply sold. Early selling pressure quickly accelerated, driving the ES to a sharp intraday low of 6300.00 by 10:55 AM. This 38-point slide from the cash open underscored the pronounced bearish momentum in the first hour and a half of trade.

Following the morning washout, the futures staged a modest recovery. A rebound lifted prices to 6315.00 by 11:45 AM, though the bounce proved fleeting. Renewed selling emerged, carrying the ES down to 6291.25 at 1:15 PM for another session low.

In the early afternoon, buyers attempted to regain control, pushing the market back up to 6311.00 at 2:10 PM, only to see resistance cap the advance. A subsequent lower high at 6300.00 by 3:00 PM confirmed the intraday downtrend remained intact. The final hour saw persistent liquidation flows, culminating in a late-session low of 6272.50 by 4:30 PM.

The regular session ultimately closed at 6282.25, marking a decline of 55.75 points (-0.88%) from the open and finishing 28.50 points (-0.45%) below the prior day’s cash settlement. For the full session (Globex through Cleanup), the ES lost 35.75 points (-0.57%).

The overall market tone was decidedly bearish, as each intraday rally attempt was met with consistent selling pressure. Volume during the regular session was substantial, with over 959,000 contracts traded. The Market-on-Close imbalance displayed $1.54 billion to buy, with 68% of the dollar flow skewed to the bid. However, the symbol imbalance at 52.8% did not exceed the threshold for a strong directional signal. This late-day buying interest was insufficient to materially alter the session’s negative trajectory.

In summary, the ES futures spent most of the day grinding lower after early premarket optimism faded. Despite the sizable closing imbalance, sellers retained control into the bell, closing near the lows. The persistent inability to sustain rebounds underscores ongoing caution among participants, and traders will be watching whether 6270 holds as support heading into the next session.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for July 16, 2025:

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Weekly Market  📈

For the week ending Friday, July 11, 2025

ES & NQ BTS Levels

Calendars

Economic

Today

Important Upcoming / Recent

Earnings

Upcoming

Recent

Full Calendar

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Morning Session

Midday and Afternoon

Late Session

Lessons and Takeaways

Overall

This session demonstrated the effectiveness of thorough preparation, clear communication, and disciplined execution. Despite a choppy summer environment, the room captured precise levels and executed high-probability trades that played out as forecast.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!