Biggest Day Since 2008: Nasdaq Explodes, ES Soars, DJIA Sets Record

on April 10, 2025

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Our View

In the world of crazy, nuts, and wild Wednesdays, trade was another boomer. First, you had the Monday tariff break headfake and sell-off, then Tuesday night’s Trump 12:00 a.m. China tariffs post, and then China hit back with tariffs on the U.S., which led to a 100-point sell-off and a rally up to 5057 at 3:00 AM on Globex. At the open, a headline hit from Trump’s Truth Social telling people, “BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well. The USA will be bigger and better than ever before!” Four minutes later, he wrote: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT.”

After an early rally up to 5087.25, the ES dropped points 107 down to 4980. The ES then traded up to the 5060 area, pulled back to 4980, and just after 1:15, another post showed up on Truth Social saying: “More than 75 Countries have called to negotiate a solution… and have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form. Because of that, I have authorized a 90-day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately.” I said the president was catching too much heat and pushback from the public and his team. All I can say is, this was another day like I’ve only seen once or twice—nothing like it since 2008.

The ES popped up to the 5120 area, downticked, and then rallied up to 5455. After a pullback, the boys with the better seats showed up and the ES and NQ started going bid and traded up to 5520 after the MIM showed $3 billion to buy. It was another wild day for the ES and NQ on a growing list of them lately.

The VIX settled at 33.62, down 6.32%. Spot gold opened at $2,998.30 per ounce, a slight increase from Tuesday’s close of $2,968.40, up 1%. Bitcoin settled at $82,317.67. Crude oil settled at $62.48 per barrel, up $2.90 per barrel, or +4.87%. Bonds and notes both closed lower, and the June 2025 Gold Futures contract settled at $3,013.50 per ounce. Everything was moving!

The tech-heavy Nasdaq exploded 12% higher, its best day in 24 years. The ES added 9.5% in its biggest gain since 2008, while the YM moved ahead 7.9%, its biggest day since 2020. The 2,963-point rally in the blue-chip index was its largest point gain on record. There are a lot of questions about whether President Trump should be saying things like “Today will be a good day for the DJIA,” and while I’m happy the markets rallied, I think if I knew that kind of news and said something like that, I’d be in jail. You can’t tell me his team didn’t know what was coming.

That all said, in addition to the big buy imbalance, someone used a specialist to buy 8 million SPYs on the 4:00 cash close and they paid almost 50 points above the ES’s high. The ES traded 5493 on the 4:00 cash close and the SPYs paid 5543, or a difference of about $40 million. Whoever did that order got ripped off, as they could’ve easily bought the equivalent in the futures. It was more than likely a hedge front for short SPY calls. I have two old sayings from my floor days: “No stops go untouched in the S&P,” and “It takes days and weeks to knock the S&P down and only one to bring it back.”

Here are the net changes for the Magnificent 7 stocks for April 9, 2025:

Apple (AAPL): Current Price: $198.85, Previous Close: $172.42, Net Change: +$26.43 (+15.33%)
Microsoft (MSFT): Current Price: $390.49, Previous Close: $354.56, Net Change: +$35.93 (+10.13%)
NVIDIA (NVDA): Current Price: $114.33, Previous Close: $96.30, Net Change: +$18.03 (+18.72%)
Amazon (AMZN): Current Price: $191.10, Previous Close: $170.66, Net Change: +$20.44 (+11.97%)
Meta Platforms (META): Current Price: $585.77, Previous Close: $510.45, Net Change: +$75.32 (+14.76%)
Alphabet (GOOGL): Current Price: $158.64, Previous Close: $144.70, Net Change: +$13.94 (+9.63%)
Alphabet (GOOG): Current Price: $161.06, Previous Close: $146.58, Net Change: +$14.48 (+9.88%)

The last time the ES gained over 10% in one day:

October 13, 2008: The S&P 500 rose by 11.58%, closing at 1,003.35 after gaining 104.13 points. This was the largest single-day percentage gain in the index’s history up to that point, driven by optimism following government announcements of bank recapitalization plans, including the U.S. Treasury’s TARP injections into major banks.
October 28, 2008: The S&P 500 increased by 10.79%, closing at 940.51 after a 91.59-point jump. This surge came amid bargain hunting after steep losses and hopes of stabilizing financial markets.

Our Lean

Our lean today is the March CPI number. Goldman forecasted a month-over-month CPI increase of 0.1% for March, following a 0.2% rise in February, and a year-over-year CPI of 2.6%, down from 2.8%. For core CPI (excluding food and energy), they projected a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.0% annual rate, compared to 0.2% and 3.1% in February.

JP Morgan projected a month-over-month CPI increase of 0.2% for March, following a 0.4% rise in February, with a year-over-year CPI of 2.8%, consistent with the BLS February data (2.8% YoY). For core CPI (excluding food and energy), they anticipated a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.2% annual rate, slightly up from February’s 3.1% YoY, reflecting ongoing pressures in shelter and services.

According to Bank of America, BofA expects a modest month-over-month CPI increase of 0.1% (unrounded 0.09%) for March. On a year-over-year basis, BofA hasn’t explicitly updated their annual figure in the immediate pre-release data, but their prior commentary suggests a headline CPI around Our lean: factoring in a slowdown from February’s 2.8% due to declines in energy and egg prices offsetting tariff-driven pressures in goods like apparel.

Our lean: I don’t know if this is going to be bad or good, but the ES was up 40 points on Globex at 10:25 p.m., and by 11:45, it was down 70 points and the NQ was down 375 points. I think this is a big shell game that’s far from over. What happens in 90 days when other countries stick to their guns? I guess we’ll find out along the way.

If the ES gaps sharply higher today, I have to sell it—or at least sell the first rally above the gap-up open—and buy a big pullback gingerly. I think there is still upside room, but MrTopStep has a rule that says after a big rally, the ES goes sideways to down.

I asked @HandelStats to run a study for me on what happened after the big ES rally in 2008, and below are the stats:

MiM and Daily Recap

The S&P 500 futures (ES) opened Wednesday’s regular session at 4982.75 following a subdued Globex session that saw prices drift lower to close at 4983.00, down 23.25 points (-0.46%) from Tuesday’s cash close. The first directional move began from the early morning low of 4909.25 at 8:30 AM, setting a short-term base that catalyzed a morning rally.

By 10:03 AM, ES climbed to an initial high of 5087.25, gaining 178.00 points (+3.63%) from the 8:30 AM low. A quick pullback to 5016.00 at 10:12 AM (-1.40%) preceded a lower high of 5067.00 at 10:33 AM. Momentum failed to follow through, leading to a midday low at 4980.00 by 10:57 AM—essentially retracing the entire morning run. Another minor bounce to 5047.50 at 11:21 AM gave way to a higher low of 4997.00 at 12:00 PM, holding just above the morning floor.

The character of the day shifted dramatically in the early afternoon. A sharp upside breakout launched from the midday range, eventually driving ES to a new session high of 5454.25 by 2:30 PM. This represented a staggering 457.25-point surge (+9.15%) off the 12:00 PM low. A brief retracement to 5352.00 at 3:00 PM was quickly reclaimed, and the uptrend resumed into the close.

The final hour featured additional strength, with ES peaking again at 5520.00 at 3:51 PM, before dipping slightly to 5473.75 at 3:54 PM. The regular session closed at 5489.50, marking a 506.75-point gain from the open (+10.17%) and a 472.00-point advance from Tuesday’s cash close (+9.41%). The Cleanup session added modestly, ending at 5513.50.

Wednesday’s action was decisively bullish. Despite early chop and pullbacks, the afternoon breakout overwhelmed prior resistance zones and was sustained into the closing print. Total regular session volume reached 2,052,935 contracts, with full session volume exceeding 2.86 million—evidence of heavy participation in the rally.

The Market-on-Close imbalance confirmed the bullish appetite. The MiM registered an extreme 98.2% buy-side dollar imbalance and 93.9% of symbols skewed to the buy side—both well above the ±66% threshold. The imbalance crescendoed into the close, peaking at $2.573B to buy versus just $47M to sell. This late-session demand supported price through the final auction.

Overall, the session transformed from neutral to aggressively bullish. The strong afternoon range extension and massive closing imbalance reinforce a strong bullish tone heading into Thursday’s trade.

How to read the MiM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for April 10, 2025

S&P: 37.48
NQ: 151.99
Dow: 234.43

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, April 9, 2025

NYSE Breadth: 99% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 79% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 87% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 94% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 84% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 89% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 8 / 752
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 26 / 835
NYSE TRIN: 0.24
Nasdaq TRIN: 1.40

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending Friday, April 4, 2025

NYSE Breadth: 34% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 39% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 7% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 14% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 11% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 106 / 1,073
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 150 / 1,682
NYSE TRIN: 1.13
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.96

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Yesterday was a jaw-dropping, historic trading session that saw massive upside momentum and explosive market moves—an absolute textbook case of how fast sentiment can flip, and how important it is to stay nimble and aligned with the tape.

Morning Session: Bullish Setup Emerges

Pre-Market Setup: David opened the day with a cautious but opportunistic tone—Cycle Day 2 (CD2) suggested potential for bulls to step in and stabilize, especially with shorts appearing trapped overnight.
Initial Push: The bulls took early control around the PC at 5012.25. A “Peekaboo” setup was noted, and price quickly fulfilled the first upside target at 5065—textbook execution of the Daily Trade Strategy.
PTGDavid authorized “buy lean dips” as the Open Range proved to be strong support. Both @CL and @NQ hit their initial targets early, reinforcing the bullish narrative.

Midday: Consolidation and a Calm Before the Storm

Price action settled into a typical CD2 balance and consolidation phase. VWAP and Open Range levels held firm as support, with David noting the “chopping wood” phase.
The room maintained a neutral tone, respecting the underlying bid and structure while awaiting further catalysts.
PTGDavid stepped out for a brief luncheon, perfectly timed before the madness hit.

Afternoon Explosion: Macro Shock Ignites Firestorm

Around 1:19 PM, breaking news of Trump proposing 125% tariffs on China hit the wires, triggering an immediate vertical melt-up across markets.
PTGDavid, though on a call, quickly noted the chaos with a 170-point one-minute candle on NQ.
The NASDAQ launched into orbit, eventually closing up over 12%, marking the biggest one-day gain since 2008.
The ES rallied over 600 points from the lows, and PTGDavid dropped a gem: “I did not have today’s move on my 3 Day Cycle Bingo Card!”

Market Close: Record Books Rewritten

Massive $4.5B MOC buy imbalance into the close.
Price closed at the highs, capping off a truly epic day with record-breaking volume.
PTGDavid captured the mood perfectly with memes, humor, and sharp insights:
- “Green (Greed) is Good”
- “$4.8 trillion in market cap added—almost 20% of US GDP!”
- “EN FUEGO!!!”

Lessons & Takeaways

✅ Respect the Cycle Structure: CD2 gave early clues of stabilization.
✅ Stay Nimble: When macro shocks hit, speed and flexibility are everything.
✅ Lean on the Strategy: Early targets were fulfilled cleanly off the strategy—proof that prep pays.
✅ Market Sentiment is Fragile: A single headline flipped the entire market tone—risk management is key.

In Summary:
From quiet consolidation to a historic breakout, today showed the power of market structure, preparedness, and reacting swiftly to catalysts. Traders who followed the plan early and stayed sharp during the chaos were well-rewarded. This one’s going in the PTG history books.

Record Day. Record Moves. Unforgettable Session.

DTG Room Preview – Thursday, April 10, 2025

Market Surge on Tariff Pause

President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for non-retaliating countries.
S&P 500 surged 9.5%, erasing recent losses; Nasdaq jumped 12.1%, marking its second-largest one-day rally ever.
Big movers: Nvidia +18%, Tesla +22%.

China Tariff Hike vs Market Reaction

Despite a 125% tariff hike on China, investors shrugged it off.
China-linked stocks like Apple (AAPL), Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD) all closed higher.

Bond Market Stress

Recent days saw a bond selloff from margin calls and foreign liquidation (e.g., China).
Trump acknowledged watching bonds but didn’t confirm if it influenced the tariff pause.

Recession Talk Flip-Flop

Goldman Sachs initially called a U.S. recession, then reversed the call 90 minutes later.
New forecast: 0.5% GDP growth, 45% probability of recession.

Key Economic Data Today

March CPI & Unemployment Claims @ 8:30am ET
Federal Budget Balance @ 2:00pm ET
Fed speakers throughout the day: Lorie Logan (9:30am), Michelle Bowman (10:00am), Jeffery Schmid (10:00am), Goolsbee & Harker (12:00pm).

Volatility & Technicals

Volatility high: 5-day ES avg daily range = 425.5 pts (~7.75%).
Tariff pause may bring volatility down from crisis levels.
ES broke intermediate downtrend, entering a short-term bullish channel.
- Potential Resistance: 5540/50s
- Potential Support: 4900/20s
Whale bias: Bullish heading into this morning’s data on lighter overnight volume.

Stay tuned for CPI numbers and Fed commentary—today could be another big mover.

ES -Week to Week

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 5,386.50. This is the critical level for assessing directional bias. Staying below this level continues to favor sellers.

Currently, ES is trading around 5,401.25, slightly above the bull/bear line, indicating a potential attempt to reclaim short-term bullish momentum. Sustained trade above 5,386.50 could open the path toward higher targets.

Our upper range target is 5,697.25. If bulls can maintain control above the bull/bear line and push through the 5,526.25 resistance area (mavg), this becomes a key area to watch for profit-taking or short interest.

On the downside, failure to hold above the bull/bear line puts pressure back toward the lower range target at 5,075.50. A breakdown below that level could extend toward deeper support near 5,006.50.

Key resistance levels above include 5,526.25 and 5,786.25.
Key support levels below include 5,266.25 and 5,075.50.

The overall trend remains bearish beneath 5,386.50, and bulls must demonstrate strength above that zone to shift momentum.

NQ – Week to Week

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 18,836.50. This is the key pivot level to watch today. NQ is currently just above it, around 18,915.75 during the Globex session, suggesting early strength. If NQ moves below this level, the bias remains bearish.

Downside targets include 18,152.75, followed by 17,601.75, which is the lower range target for the day. If price breaks through 18,152.75, expect sellers to gain momentum toward that 17,601.75 zone.

On the upside, resistance levels come in at 19,353.50 and 20,071.25, with 20,071.25 marking the upper range target. A move back above the bull/bear line at 18,836.50 would be the first signal that buyers are attempting to regain control.

Above 18,836.50 and especially above 19,353.50, bulls can target a move toward the 20,000 area. However, given current price action, traders should stay cautious until a sustained reclaim of the bull/bear line occurs.