on June 27, 2025

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Our View

New highs all around. SP500 technically has not made it yet, but with today’s repeated gap open, it seems pretty certain.

Nasdaq 100 already achieved the new crown a couple of days ago. Four strong bullish candles in a row, and we see June closing out on the highs.

If you didn’t get a chance to read yesterday’s technical study from Rich Miller of Handelstats, here’s a link to yesterday’s piece. There were two stats in that report pointing to a statistically high probability that the market will close higher from here by year-end. We’ve been calling it the End-of-June Barometer.

Our guest post today is from SpotGamma, and it’s definitely worth the read. They’re keeping a close eye on today’s and Monday’s closes, along with the shortened trading week ahead.

On Monday, we’ll be releasing Handel stats’ 4th of July studies.

PCE data has just been released. The Personal Income was a surprise for a contraction of -0.4% MoM, with spending also down -0.1%. The ES shed about 10 points here, probably a dip worth buying.

The SpotGamma team is expecting more volatility between now and Monday as the quarter wraps up and the market keeps trying to push to new highs. The JPM collar remains in effect.

Today’s close should be fun to watch along with the Market on Close meter, expecting some size as we head into EOM and EOQ.

Enjoy the weekend!

Our Lean

We remain on the bullish side as we watch June close. If a two-way trade starts setting up due to increased volatility, we won’t be shy of selling some rips, but the mantra remains: buy the dips.

Guest Posts:

SpotGamma Founders Note:

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night’s Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. – MrTopStep

Founder’s Note:

Futures +30bps ahead of PCE at 8:30AM ET.

Straddle check: $22/35 bps/14.2% IV ref(6,160). Bottom basement expectations despite PCE. However, should PCE be a miss, we’d expect the dip to be bought in a heavy way because there are big positive gamma strikes at 6,150 & 6,140. To the upside there are no material gamma strikes until 6,210. This dynamic will of course change because 0DTE traders will flood in after PCE & the market open – remember 0DTE volume is consistently 55-65% of SPX trading.

Monday’s ATM IV is now a 9.1% (!!!) – and as we covered in yesterday’s AM note (read here), we think this is due to the JPM collar & related positions squashing vol, and the rolling/expiration of those positions (along with Quarter end flow) could be a trigger for a short term jump in vol. We emphasize short term, because its very unlikely anyone wants to carry long protection over the July 4th weekend. More simply said: we are likely going to take a little swing at owning 6/30 or 7/1 straddles, placing the order into tonights close. Yes, there is some weekend carry cost, but that is de minimus given the low IV.

There is another dynamic here, and that is single stocks are starting to feel short term overbought. You can see this in compass as many names are now in the bottom right quadrant (reflecting expensive calls).

From a positioning standpoint, in yesterday’s Q&A we scanned at least a dozen stocks that all had a very similar “just above positive gamma thats about to expire” looks. This implies that we could lose some single stock cushioning/support. Again, this is not a sirens call for an all time high top as much as a 1-2 day shake out possibly today (PCE dependent) into Monday. Ultimately we think stocks will have the tailwind of IV suppression from after Monday through next weeks holiday.

Get instant access to our partners real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. – MrTopStep

MiM and Daily Recap

The session began with a relatively steady overnight Globex trade, where ES opened at 6144.75 and oscillated between a high of 6171.00 and a low of 6141.25. Globex closed modestly higher at 6165.50, marking a 20.75-point gain (0.34%) from the overnight open and an 18-point advance from the prior day’s settlement.

As the regular cash session commenced at 9:30 AM ET, price initially drifted lower, establishing an early low of 6159.25 by 9:50 AM. This set the stage for a steady advance through the morning. By 11:20 AM, ES had surged to 6185.00, representing a 25.75-point climb (+0.42%) off the morning low. A brief retracement ensued, as prices dipped to 6174.25 at 11:30 AM, shedding 10.75 points (-0.17%).

Momentum soon resumed upward. Through the midday hours, buyers steadily lifted the market, culminating in a new intraday high of 6198.00 at 14:15, reflecting a 23.75-point move (+0.38%) from the earlier pullback. Yet again, the tape saw a quick drop, with ES printing 6187.25 at 14:45 for a similar retracement of 10.75 points (-0.17%).

A fresh push unfolded in the late afternoon as ES climbed to 6195.25 by 15:20. After a minor pause, the final burst of strength drove price to the session peak of 6200.00 at 15:55, capping the regular session’s climb. This late advance amounted to an 11.50-point gain (+0.19%) from the prior swing low. After topping out, price backed off modestly into the closing bell, settling at 6196.25 at 16:00.

The cleanup session was comparatively quiet, with ES fluctuating in a narrow range before ending the day at 6195.75. Overall, from the previous cash close to the final print, the contract advanced 48.75 points, up 0.79%.

Volume was light, with 791,687 contracts changing hands during regular hours and total volume reaching 961,962 contracts across all sessions.

Overall market tone remained constructive throughout the day, characterized by persistent dip buying and a consistent series of higher highs. Despite several intraday retracements—most notably the twin pullbacks of roughly 10.75 points each—the uptrend was never materially challenged, and the closing settlement near the session high underscored the underlying bid.

From a performance standpoint, the cash session delivered the bulk of the net gains, with an open-to-close increase of 30.75 points (+0.50%). Compared to the prior session’s close, the contract closed up by nearly 49 points (+0.79%), reflecting broad-based buying interest. Globex contributed modestly to the advance, while cleanup action remained largely a placeholder without notable directional conviction.

No Market-on-Close imbalance data was available today, leaving the late-day flow harder to interpret. Nonetheless, the pattern of persistent buying and afternoon extension suggested participants were willing to hold risk into the weekend. With the index closing near its highs, the tone sets up a constructive bias heading into the next session.

How to read the MIM

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6185.75. This is the key level that must be held to maintain bullish momentum. Staying above this pivot keeps the bias positive.

Currently, ES is trading around 6217.50, indicating clear strength above the bull/bear line. If price remains above this area, the next upside target is 6235.25, which is today’s upper range target.

On the downside, immediate support comes in near 6195.75. A move back below this could pull ES toward 6141.25 and 6136.25, our lower range target for today. A sustained break under these levels opens further downside risk toward 6089.75 and 6076.50.

Resistance sits first at 6235.25. If this level is broken and held, bulls may look to extend higher from there.

Overall, the tone stays bullish above 6185.75. If price falls back below this bull/bear line, expect sellers to retest support levels and potentially reassert downside pressure.

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 22,629.70. This is the key level that must be held for bullish momentum to resume. Above this level, traders can look for potential long setups on dips.

Currently, NQ is trading around 22,773.50, indicating strength above the bull/bear line. If this area continues to hold, further upside is favored, targeting the upper range of 22,855.80 for today. A break above this range can open the door toward higher resistance near 23,068.20.

On the downside, initial support is seen at 22,672.50 and further down at 22,461.30 and 22,437.80. If price falls back below 22,629.70, bearish pressure will likely increase, with the lower range target at 22,404.00 as the next downside objective. Below that, stronger support is located near 22,191.30.

Overall, the trend is constructive above 22,629.70, but failure to maintain trade above this level could trigger deeper retracements toward the lower support zones.

Technical Edge

Fair Values for June 27, 2025

SP: 52.28
NQ: 221.38
Dow: 311.

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, June 26, 2025

NYSE Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 57% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 54 / 37
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 133 / 103
NYSE TRIN: 1.20
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.68

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Week Ending Friday, June 20, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 137 / 106
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 327 / 266
• NYSE TRIN: 1.01
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.68

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Wednesday, June 26, 2025

Session Overview

The day was characterized by persistent bullish momentum, especially notable into the close as institutions marked up prices ahead of quarterly reports (T+2).

Early Session:
- ES (S&P Futures) had an initial bullish bias, with David highlighting that sustained bids above 6145 would target the 6160–6165 zone.
- Volume built as expected in this target zone, confirming the roadmap from the DTS Briefing.
- NQ (Nasdaq Futures) triggered an opening range short, though it seemed less favorable in the early action.
Crude Oil (CL) Trades:
- David called a CL Opening Range Long, which hit Target 1, and later Target 2, eventually fulfilling all bull targets by 11:09 AM—a clear highlight of the day’s trading successes.
Midday to Afternoon:
- Market remained strong, with low pullbacks.
- The room discussed probability and mindset, reminding traders to think like the house, not the gambler.
- Into the Power Hour, the bullish bid accelerated:
  - David remarked “Bulls remain LARGE and IN CHARGE.”
  - 6200 print high of day (HOD) into the close, driven by end-of-month markups and a massive MOC (Market-on-Close) buy reaction despite a reported $3.6B sell imbalance.

Positive Trades & Highlights

✅ CL Opening Range Long was executed with precision and fully achieved targets—a textbook setup.
✅ ES directional roadmap worked well, with the market behaving in line with David’s early scenarios.
✅ John B shared a gap opening day practice trade, emphasizing preparation and a methodical approach, even if still on SIM—great reinforcement of disciplined process.

Lessons Learned & Insights

Treat Trading Like a Business: A recurring theme today was the importance of thinking in terms of probability and consistency over any single trade (the casino analogy).
Preparation Matters: The pre-market DTS Briefing accurately outlined target zones, which guided successful trades.
Stay Flexible: While the NQ short didn’t develop into a major win, the room shifted focus back to bullish setups.
End-of-Month Behavior: T+2 and quarterly report dynamics can create strong closing action, worth planning for in future sessions.

DTG Room Preview – Friday, June 27, 2025

S&P 500: Hovering near all-time closing highs. Today’s Core PCE report (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) is the key focus and could trigger a breakout to new records.
Federal Reserve: Officials signaled that more months of inflation data are needed before considering rate cuts. Tariffs are expected to impact prices, but evidence remains limited. San Francisco Fed’s Daly indicated a rate adjustment may be possible by fall.
Political Pressure: President Trump is reportedly eager to replace Fed Chair Powell early despite his term running through May 2026.
Trade Developments: Trump announced a US-China trade deal, though details remain unclear. Reports suggest a trade truce has been reached in Geneva.
Volatility: Elevated and steady; today’s data releases likely to set the tone. No significant large-trader (“whale”) bias observed overnight.
Technical Levels (ES Futures):
- Resistance: 6285.75 (back-adjusted all-time high), 6385/90
- Support: 6036/39, 6004/07, 5614/19
- This area has repeatedly rejected bulls (Dec, Jan, Feb), and may require a strong catalyst to break higher.

Upcoming Data & Events

8:30am ET: Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending
9:15am ET: Fed speakers – Governor Lisa Cook, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack
10:00am ET: UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations