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Bullish Momentum Builds Toward 6400
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Our View
The ES was weak on Globex, rallied before the open, and traded 6348.00 on the 9:30 regular session open. Before the open, I noticed the ES was acting weird — there were some quick jolts down as many of the European indices were falling. The DAX was down 1.5% early. Despite the daily drop, the DAX remained up 3.68% over the past month and 32.53% year-over-year.
After the initial selloff down to 6318.75 around 10:00, the ES rallied up to the 6338 level, back-and-filled for the next 2 1/2 hours, and then slowly rallied up to the 6354 level late. It traded 6347.25 on the 5:00 futures close.
In the end, the ES was hit by several early sell programs triggered by a mix of corporate earnings, disappointing results from Lockheed Martin and Philip Morris, tariff uncertainty, an overbought tape, and some profit-taking. In terms of the overall tone, the NQ was the weak link. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume rose from 890k on Monday to just over 1.1 million contracts traded.
Earnings
Today we have one economic report — Existing Home Sales at 10:00. 123 companies report earnings today. Before the bell, AT&T (T) reports at 8:30. Alphabet (GOOG), International Business Machines (IBM), and Tesla (TSLA) all report after the bell.
Tariffs
Trump closed another big trade deal with Japan. The U.S. will levy 15% tariffs on Japanese goods, including on the country’s critical auto industry. In return, Japan will invest $550 billion in America. The Trump administration also reached a deal with the Philippines and gave details on its trade framework with Indonesia last week.
Trump is also saying he could soon meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S.-China trade truce could be extended. China said Vice Premier He Lifeng will travel to Sweden soon to meet his U.S. counterparts.
Overnight, Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped to its highest close in around a year, led by car stocks. European and other Asian indexes also gained, with the FTSE 100 notching a record high. The DAX gained 0.80% and then started to pull back. I used to list all the major global market net changes, and I think it’s time to start adding them to the OP again.
Our Lean
I’ve been talking about the 6350–6380 level for the last week, and today’s Globex high is 6373.25. I’ve been bullish and remain in that camp. Even after yesterday’s little selloff, the ES and NQ remain in buy mode. If you are a true trend follower, the upside remains in play.
Our lean: As for the gap-up? Generally, I would have to sell a gap after a new high, but @HandelStats said he does not think the gap will fill and expects a gap-and-go. Either way, I think you buy the pullbacks.
6400 ON TAP!!!
Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive 3-Day Cycle as price secured a rally above the CD1 Low (6323.25) which has an 91.04% historical performance track history.
Positive 3-Day Cycle Statistic is defined as Price Above the Cycle Day 1 Low on Cycle Day 3. P > CD1 on CD3.
In-fact price successfully back tested the prior CD1 Low throughout the day finding responsive buyers on each occasion. This action strengthens this level as one to be marked “SIGNIFICANT” or “MAGNIFICENT” for future reference.
Range for this session was 35 handles on 1.092M contracts exchanged.
For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 7.22.25
FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
Transition into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the average decline projection measuring 6315 (Recap) and 6296 (Recap-MA).
Rangebound conditions persist near the ATH as traders continue to be BTFD players. The current multi-day range is marked between 6320 – 6374.
You can see the reason 6323 continued to elicit buy responses on multiple back tests, as noted above.
Mr. Market is keeping on the heater, so be sure to KEEP KOOL!
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6345+-, initially targets 6355 – 6360 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6345+-, initially targets 6325– 6320 zone.
PVA High Edge = 6349 PVA Low Edge = 6330 Prior POC = 6336
ESU
Thanks for reading, PTGDavid
MiM and Daily Recap
The overnight Globex session opened at 6347.00 and moved slowly higher, reaching a local high of 6351.50 at 20:15. After a minor pullback to 6346.75 at 21:00, ES pushed to a marginal new high of 6352.00 at 21:45, but momentum stalled. A sharp slide ensued, dragging price down to 6339.25 by 01:30 for a 12.75-point drop (-0.20%). A modest rebound took ES back to 6347.00 at 03:15 before sellers returned, driving the market to a lower low of 6335.25 by 04:45. Buyers re-emerged and carried the ES to a high of 6349.50 into the 09:00 hour, but that move quickly reversed.
The regular session opened at 6348.00, and early weakness was swift and aggressive, plunging the market to the session low of 6318.75 by 09:50—a 30-point drawdown (-0.48%) from the cash open. A reflex rally developed into 11:05, where price peaked at 6388.50, a 19.75-point advance (+0.31%), before rolling back to 6327.25 at 12:25.
From there, bulls staged a recovery, driving ES to 6349.75 at 13:25 and extending the push to a fresh high of 6352.75 by 14:55. However, the trend failed to hold, and the market oscillated in a jagged fashion through the afternoon. Pullbacks to 6332.50 at 14:15 and 6343.00 at 16:20 were met with modest recoveries, but each bounce saw lower highs at 6353.75, 6350.25, and 6347.50 respectively, suggesting fading upside conviction. The session closed at 6345.50, down 2.50 points from the cash open (-0.04%) and up just 0.25 points from the prior day’s settlement.
Market Tone & Notable Factors
The day carried a choppy-to-neutral tone. Sellers dominated the early regular session with a sharp drop, but buyers managed to grind back losses, though with increasingly shallow highs, highlighting some hesitation.
Volume reached 1,092,434 contracts, with 919,712 during regular hours, reflecting moderate engagement in a session marked by two-sided flows. The $C–C difference was a meager +0.25, or 0.00%, emphasizing the market’s indecision.
Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance data showed a meaningful tilt to the sell side, with a total imbalance of -$1.352B and a symbol imbalance of -56.2%. While the dollar imbalance (-64.3%) didn’t breach the critical 66% threshold, the pressure was notable and may have contributed to late-day weakness, particularly into the 16:00 close.
In summary, the ES closed nearly unchanged despite sizable intraday swings. The tone suggested caution, with reactive trading dominating the day. Heading into the next session, traders may look for a resolution to the recent balance between 6318 and 6353.75.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for July 23, 2025:
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SP: 36.34
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NQ: 152.94
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Dow: 199.85
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Tuesday, July 22, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 77.76% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 66.37% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 67.57% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 70.14% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 61.94% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 65.05% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 78 / 17
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 156 / 41
• NYSE TRIN: 0.77
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.81
Weekly Market 📈
For the week ending Friday, July 18, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 52.83% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 63.75% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 59.76% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 41.64% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 53.86% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 49.30% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 207 / 76
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 473 / 177
• NYSE TRIN: 0.62
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.64
ES & NQ BTS Levels
ES Levels
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6342.50. Currently, ES is trading above this line at 6366.25, indicating early Globex strength. If price remains above the bull/bear line, the bias favors buyers.
On the upside, initial resistance is at 6371.50, our upper range target for the day. A sustained break above that level opens the path to 6398.75. Further strength could push price into the 6400s.
If price falls back below 6342.50, we look to the downside for support levels at 6318.75 and the lower range target at 6313.50. Further resistance level is at 6286.25. A break below that would signal stronger selling pressure with potential for deeper downside exploration.
NQ Levels
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,230.75. This is the critical pivot for the day—holding above it favors bullish setups, while rejection below it suggests further downside.
Currently, NQ is trading around 23,247.00, slightly above the bull/bear line, indicating a tentative bullish bias. If buyers can defend this level, the next upside targets are 23,382.75, which marks today’s upper range target, followed by resistance at 23,525.75. Continued strength above 23,525.75 could open the door for a push toward 23,578.50.
If NQ loses 23,230.75 and sustains below, momentum likely shifts back to the downside. The first lower range target is 23,078.75, and a break of that could draw price toward deeper support at 22,935.75. Failure to hold this zone risks accelerating selling pressure.
Calendars
Economic
Today
Important Upcoming / Recent
Earnings
Upcoming
Recent
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, July 22, 2025
Overview:
Tuesday played out as a highly tactical and opportunity-rich session marked by precision targeting, disciplined short plays, and range-bound consolidation. The session opened with bearish pressure that fulfilled downside targets with pinpoint accuracy before a strong afternoon recovery drove prices back to green on the day. PTGDavid classified the day as a “Wild Card” and navigated it accordingly, offering excellent intraday insights and setups.
Morning Session Highlights:
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Opening Setup:
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Market opened on Cycle Day 3 with a “Wild Card” directional label.
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The overnight spillover delivered textbook precision, tagging the 6335 downside target early.
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PTGDavid highlighted the bullish odds (90.98%) with price trading above the CD1 low (6323.25), signaling a potential for mean reversion despite the early weakness.
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Key Levels Shared:
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Line in the Sand (LIS): 6350
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Gamma support @ 6300 SPX = 6335 ES
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Volatility trigger: 6295 SPX = 6332 ES
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First Major Trade:
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Short lean against 6350 LIS initiated mid-morning.
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A4 Short setup played out beautifully with multiple lower targets fulfilled across both ES and NQ.
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The 6324 D level was tagged, showing the importance of deliberate practice and level discipline.
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Midday – Consolidation and Education:
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PTGDavid guided members through a range-bound consolidation between 6320–6330 (“sandbox”).
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Important Q&A session with PeterN covered how to distinguish a retracement from a reversal and understanding alignment across timeframes.
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Trading education included discussion of the 89 EMA rules and using sandbox edges for confirmation.
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Market moved into “Chop Zone” by late morning, encouraging traders to be patient and avoid overtrading.
Afternoon Session – Reversal and Flexibility:
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Around 1 PM, bulls emerged attempting to reclaim ground:
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Target: 6343 Open Range Midpoint, later reached.
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PTGDavid called out Money Box Reversals, which played out cleanly, especially in NQ.
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Price rallied back to prior close 6348.50, completing a solid range reversal move.
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Important reminder from PTGDavid:
“Don’t be a Perma-Bull or Perma-Bear… be a Jelly Fish. Go with the flow!” -
Final rejection at 6350 LIS reinforced the importance of key level awareness.
Late Session & Close:
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Afternoon news stirred the room, including Powell speaking and a viral (likely fake) report on Ozzy Osbourne’s passing.
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Despite the noise, PTGDavid stayed focused, reporting a growing MOC sell imbalance that reached $1.2B by 3:55 PM.
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Market took a sharp dive into the close, chalked up to “Summer Shenanigans”, yet still managed to close green.
Lessons & Takeaways:
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Key levels work — 6335 and 6350 served as excellent short and reversal anchors.
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Being flexible (the “Jelly Fish” mindset) allowed members to profit both directions.
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Pattern recognition like Money Box Reversals can be “too easy” with practice.
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Don’t trade noise — the Ozzy/Powell headlines were reminders to stay focused on price action.
Summary:
A highly instructive session, marked by clear technical levels, disciplined short setups, and an impressive range reversal. The room capitalized on both directional edges and chop zones, reinforcing the importance of trading structure and adaptability. A textbook “Wild Card” day well-navigated.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, July 23, 2025
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Trade Developments:
A significant U.S.-Japan trade deal was announced, cutting tariffs to 15% on autos and parts. Japan will now accept U.S. vehicles under American safety standards and has pledged a $550B U.S. investment fund. Toyota shares surged 16% on the news. Separately, Taiwan negotiators are in D.C. for the fourth round of trade talks, amid U.S. tariffs on several Asian countries. Taiwan, with a $65B trade surplus, plans to boost purchases of U.S. goods and increase domestic investment. -
Macro:
The U.S. dollar is down ~10% since Trump’s inauguration. Trump reiterated support for a strong dollar, warning of inflation risks tied to a weaker currency. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon cautioned on dollar confidence eroding if the trend continues. -
Earnings Focus:
Premarket names include AT&T, General Dynamics, and Thermo Fisher. Post-market earnings feature Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, and T-Mobile. Traders are keying off earnings as the main short-term driver. -
Market Technicals:
S&P 500 continues its push toward new all-time highs with contracting volatility. ES remains trendline-bound; bulls eye a psychological 6400 breakout, while bears have room to work below. Notable trendline resistance levels: 6420/23, 6491/94; support zones: 6166/71, 6120/25, 5682/87. -
Other Data:
Existing Home Sales at 10:00am ET, Crude Inventories at 10:30am ET. Whale bias leans short into the open on solid overnight volume.
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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