Bullish Stats Favor First Trading Day of November
But it’s also an FOMC Day
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Our View
We are going to keep things short and sweet today.
The only thing I can say is the markets saw a lot of two-way price action at the end of October. I keep flipping back and forth, but I think we will see some type of year-end rally. I know a lot of people don’t think so, but I think Santa will show — it’s just a matter of when.
Is it beginning now? It looks like the ES is trying to move up, but it still faces a very large uphill battle. Don’t forget: We have the Fed announcement this afternoon and Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Our Lean
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, November starts the ‘Best 6 Months for Stocks.’ The first trading day of November has also been fairly bullish, with the Dow up 10 of the last 13 occasions.
Our lean is the same as yesterday: You can sell the early rips and buy the pullbacks or just be patient and buy the 30 to 40-point pullbacks.
I don’t think the ES is out of the woods yet, but there are tons of shorts that have not been squeezed out. Pay attention to the headlines, use stops and learn to live another day.
For those of you who like HandelStats levels, here they are:
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Upside: Trade and hourly close above 4194 targets 4199.75, then 4205.50-.75. Hourly close above 4205.75 targets 4219.38, then 4222.25. Hourly close above there targets 4236.44, then 1 sd at 4240.73. Hourly close above there targets 4252.25, then 4258.50 the 4262.69. Hourly close above there targets 2 sd at 4275.71.
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Downside: Trade below 4194 targets 4188.62, then 4183.25, then 4171.75 and 1 sd at 4170.77. Hourly close below there targets 4166, then 4159.25, then 4152.50. Hourly close below there targets -2 sd at 4135.79.
MiM and Daily Recap
ES recap, 15-min, multi-day
I want to remind everyone about MrTopStep’s trading rule that there are three parts to the trading day:
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What happens on Globex
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What happens after the 9:30 ET open
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What happens in the final hour (3:00 to 4:00)
The ES traded up to 4199.75 and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 4191.50. After the open, the ES traded 4193.25, sold off down to 4176.75 and for the next 26 minutes did a sideways-to-lower back-and-fill. The ES then printed a new low at 4171.75 at 10:06 and traded up to 4190.75 at 10:12, pulled back a bit and then rallied up to 4192.50 before selling back off down to a 4177.75 double bottom. From there, it rallied 14 points up to 4192.00 at 10:46 and then rallied again up to 4195.75 at 10:55.
For the next hour, the ES back-and-filled at the VWAP, made a low at 4183.75 at 11:53 and traded up to 4211.00 at 2:00. After the high, the ES pulled back to the 4200 level, rallied back up to a new 4215.00 double top and pulled back to 4205.50 at 3:42 as the early imbalance showed $629 million to sell. The ES traded 4210 as the final 3:50 cash imbalance flipped to $864 million to buy and traded 4113.25 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES sold off down to 4202.00 at 4:59 and traded 4204.00 on the 5:00 futures close, up 19 points or 0.45% on the day.
In the end, it was all about buying the dips and the late-day walk away. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was on the firm side. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was steady: 316k traded on Globex and 1.44 million traded on the day session for a total of 1.746 million contracts traded.
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Technical Edge
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NYSE Breadth: 68% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 65% Upside Volume
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Advance/Decline: 72% Advance
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VIX: ~18
ES
Levels from HandelStats.com
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ES Daily
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Upside: Trade and hourly close above 4194 targets 4199.75, then 4205.50-.75. Hourly close above 4205.75 targets 4219.38, then 4222.25. Hourly close above there targets 4236.44, then 1 sd at 4240.73. Hourly close above there targets 4252.25, then 4258.50 the 4262.69. Hourly close above there targets 2 sd at 4275.71.
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Downside: Trade below 4194 targets 4188.62, then 4183.25, then 4171.75 and 1 sd at 4170.77. Hourly close below there targets 4166, then 4159.25, then 4152.50. Hourly close below there targets -2 sd at 4135.79.
NQ
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NQ Daily
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Upside: Trade and hourly close above 14470.25 targets 14553.62. Hourly close above there targets 1 sd at 14631.05. Hourly close above there targets 14767.25, then 14786 and 2 sd at 14791.85.
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Downside: Trade and hourly close below 14420.75 targets 14385.62, then 14344.50. Below there targets 14331.25, then -1 sd at 14309.45. Hourly close below there targets -2 sd at 14148.65.
Guest Post
Topic: PTG/Taylor 3 Day Cycle
Author: David D Dube’ (a.k.a. PTGDavid)
Website: https://polaristradinggroup.com/
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Market continued to extend this cycle’s rally fulfilling upper Penetration Level (4210.75). Prior range was 48 handles on 1.756M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Markets may retest prior high before the next decline unfolds. Today is FED DAY with the FOMC Statement @ 2pm followed by Presser @ 2:30 ET. We are anticipating relatively quiet trading ahead of the release, with potential for seesaw action thereafter. Today is also Cycle Day 1 with Average Decline measuring 4180 handle. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4200, initially targets 4230 – 4240 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4200, initially targets 4180 – 4170 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4210 PVA Low Edge = 4182 Prior POC = 4188
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/bb8b0367-d823-47ad-b940-776b53452300/CD1-1024x231.jpg)
Thanks for reading,
PTGDavid
Economic Calendar
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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