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Bye Bye June, Bye Bye Q2
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Our View
The major event for the day is the close of June and the end of the quarter. The economic calendar is very light today. Looking into the first week of July, we have ISM PMI, Jolts. The week is shortened as the U.S. celebrates its original No Kings Day on the 4th of July. Beware that the Friday holiday pulls the jobs numbers ahead to Thursday. Expectations are around 110K new jobs.
After today, the week should be light. There was a 38B equities for bonds rebalance needing to be done by the end of the month. I expect a lot of that was accomplished during the ± 50 point swing on Friday afternoon.
Summer trading will kick off after today, so lower volatility ahead, with the exception of volatility in the trade negotiations and peace talks. There should be an exodus this afternoon as people begin to head out to their weekend celebration spots.
Watch for trade to lighten up this afternoon, and that could make the close volatile if there are any last-minute large trades to unwind.
In our Lean this morning, there is a study by Handelstats on the last day of June. If you don’t get the premium version, you can get a free trial here for 2 weeks:
SPX
So we say goodbye to June. The tag team months of May and June have fought off the fears of tariffs, slowing economies, and wars to take the markets to new highs. Today the duo hand off to July which we expect to treat these first few days this week with consolidating caution. The markets are in need of a rest, and the weekly Trin numbers are approaching 2.
Our Lean
I don’t put a two-way market out of the realm today. I expect the morning to be bullish; we could see selling into the close as traders and buyers walk away. If we are up big or down big on the close, I might bite for a counter trade overnight. You won’t have to rush into it.
Friday provided us with a decent two-way trade of around 50 points up and down. I am not sure we are going to get that today, but if we do get some big swings, I could tolerate selling some rips and buying some dips.
Our Lean: Watch volume throughout the day. There is still a lot of work to be done to close out the month, and some of the big players won’t be playing that hard; they’ll pick up the pieces next week.
June Trading Patterns: A Historical Look
Since 1987, June has shown a notable tendency for late-month strength. In 22 of those years, the monthly high was reached during the final week, compared to 18 years when the high occurred in the first three weeks. Interestingly, in 4 of those years, the high was made on the final trading day of the month.
Focusing on more recent history, since 2007, the last trading day of June has closed higher 12 times, and lower just 5 times, underscoring a historical bullish bias heading into July. Handelstats.com
Rich has 100s of great quality studies. Check out his website at https://handelstats.com and see if there is a product there that can help you with your trading.
MiM and Daily Recap
The S&P 500 futures opened the overnight Globex session at 6197.50 and maintained a modest upward bias into the early morning hours. The initial premarket high developed at 6220.75 at 08:00 ET, a 13.50-point gain from the prior close. However, selling pressure soon emerged, and the market slid to an early low of 6202.00 by 09:30 ET, marking an 18.75-point decline (-0.30%) from that premarket high just ahead of the regular session open.
As cash trading commenced, buyers swiftly regained control, propelling ES up to 6230.00 at 10:12 ET, representing a sharp 28-point rebound (+0.45%) from the low. After this surge, the contract experienced two successive pullbacks: first to 6220.25 at 10:24, trimming 9.75 points, then another shallow dip to 6220.75 at 10:57 (with a shallow peak in between). Despite these consolidations, the market maintained a firm tone and pressed higher again into midday.
A renewed push lifted ES to 6239.00 by 12:30 ET, the session’s highest print during regular hours and an 18.25-point advance (+0.29%) from the late morning trough. This attempt to extend gains ultimately lost steam, and by 13:12, the market had eased back to 6234.50 before continuing a deeper decline. As the afternoon unfolded, selling accelerated materially. Prices gave way to a decisive breakdown that culminated in the day’s lowest reading of 6183.25 by 14:51, representing a sharp 51.25-point reversal (-0.82%) off the midday high.
Following the flush, the market recovered moderately into late afternoon, reaching 6226.75 at 15:57 before settling into a final pullback to 6216.75 by 16:27. The regular session closed at 6223.25, securing a 19-point gain (+0.31%) from the session open. On a cash-to-cash basis, ES advanced 27 points or 0.44% relative to the prior day’s close. The cleanup session was quieter, seeing only a minor drift, and wrapped up at 6220.75.
Overall, volume was solid, with 1,062,488 contracts traded during the regular session and total daily volume reaching 1,267,623 across all sessions.
Market Tone & Notable Factors
The tone throughout Friday’s trade was mixed but ultimately constructive, as early weakness resolved in favor of an intraday rally that later reversed into a forceful afternoon decline. The premarket recovery set the stage for initial optimism, but the afternoon liquidation wave underscored persistent caution among participants despite the positive open-to-close performance.
Notably, the Market-on-Close imbalance data revealed significant selling pressure into the final hour. At 15:59 ET, the total dollar imbalance was measured at -$2.615 billion, heavily skewed to the sell side. Although the symbol imbalance registered -60.3%, it narrowly missed the -66% threshold that would have signaled an extreme directional bias. Nonetheless, this persistent imbalance likely contributed to the choppy and defensive tone into the final settlement prints.
Despite the strong midday high, the closing action was unable to retest earlier peaks, leaving the session with a modest gain but well off the highs. The combination of solid volume and the large MOC sell imbalance suggests traders remained cautious into quarter-end flows. Looking ahead, traders may focus on whether the 6200 area continues to serve as a near-term support zone or gives way to further profit-taking pressure as new positioning emerges in July.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for June 30, 2025:
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SP: 50.49
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NQ: 213.4
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Dow: 297.74
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, June 27, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 51% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 125 / 19
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 238 / 87
• NYSE TRIN: 1.08
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.25
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending June 27, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 72% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 66% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 68% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 216 / 80
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 465 / 275
• NYSE TRIN: 1.86
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.24
Today’s BTS Levels:
ES
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6217.00. This is the key level that must be reclaimed and held for bullish momentum to resume.
Currently, ES is trading around 6247.25, showing strength above the bull/bear line. If price holds above this level, we can expect continued upside movement, targeting 6255.00, our upper range target for today. A sustained break above this area opens the door for a move toward 6290.75, which marks additional resistance.
On the downside, first support sits at 6220.75, just above the bull/bear line. If price fails to hold here, the next support is down at 6197.50. A break below this level would target 6178.75 as the lower range target for the session.
Overall, the trend is constructive above 6217.00. Bulls will want to defend any pullbacks into the 6220.75–6217.00 zone. A decisive move back below 6217.00 would shift momentum to the downside, exposing the market to a deeper retracement toward 6178.75.
NQ
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 22,729.30. This is the critical level that defines whether the market retains bullish momentum. Currently, NQ is trading around 22,883.50, showing strength above the bull/bear line and suggesting a bullish bias for the session.
If the market holds above 22,729.30, the next upside target is 22,904.00, which is the upper range target for today. A sustained break above this level can open the path to higher resistance near 23,068.50.
On the downside, the first area of support comes in around 22,825.50 and 22,740.30. A move below these levels will bring the bull/bear line at 22,729.30 back into focus. If the price falls below the bull/bear line and sustains there, look for further weakness towards 22,676.30 and then down to the lower range target at 22,554.50. A deeper decline could extend towards 22,390.00.
Overall, the trend remains constructive above 22,729.30, and buying pullbacks is preferred while the price holds above this level. If sellers regain control below 22,729.30, expect more sustained downside pressure into the support zones.
Calendars
Today’s Economic Calendar
This Week’s Important Economic Events
Today’s Earnings
Recent Earnings
Room Summaries:
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Friday, June 27, 2025
Market Overview and Strategy
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Morning Focus:
David reiterated that it was a Capital Preservation Day, advising traders to be selective and disciplined.-
Bullish Scenarios were mapped out early:
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ES: Sustained bid above 6190 targeting 6210–6215.
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NQ: Above 22675 targeting 22730–22765.
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DTS Briefing scored “direct hits” on both ES and NQ initial upside targets, showcasing strong alignment between the plan and price action.
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Executed Trades & Positive Outcomes
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Open Range Trades:
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CL (Crude Oil): Open Range Long Target 1 was filled early.
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NQ: Open Range Long triggered and ALL TARGETS fulfilled.
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ES: Long triggers aligned with the plan and sustained strength.
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Cycle Day Targets:
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CD1 Penetration Target (6237) was achieved by midday, capping a solid morning performance.
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David emphasized staying LONG ONLY throughout the trend, reminding traders to align with the Primary Directive—always trade in alignment with the dominant force.
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Afternoon Volatility:
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A fast drop triggered a Bear Scenario, targeting 6175–6170, illustrating how quickly the market can shift.
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Despite this, a large $1.3 billion MOC buy imbalance fueled a recovery back to 6215 VWAP, confirming bulls retained control by the close.
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Lessons and Key Reminders
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Stay in Alignment:
The Primary Directive was reinforced: Trade with the dominant trend, not against it. -
Patience and Discipline:
Several members, like John B., chose to Sit On Hands (SOH) if setups didn’t meet their rules, highlighting the importance of waiting for high-quality entries. -
Adaptability:
Afternoon volatility (“slippy soap routine”) reminded everyone that strong trends can reverse, and managing risk with hard stops is essential. -
Chart Blending and Confirmation:
Techniques like blending entries on the bull stacker and confirming with ATR4/EMA alignment were discussed to improve precision.
Overall
The session was highly successful, especially the morning trades:
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Multiple targets hit with precision.
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Clear directional bias (“LONGS ONLY”) kept traders focused.
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A late-day pullback tested discipline, but ultimately the bullish narrative prevailed.
David signed off wishing everyone a restful weekend, noting that Monday could bring “Window Dressing” and potential new all-time highs.
DTG Room Preview – Monday, June 30, 2025
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Quarter-End Surge: Stock futures are higher as the S&P 500 (+4% in June), Nasdaq (+5.5%), and Dow (+3.5%) head for fresh record highs to close one of the most volatile half-years in recent memory.
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Trade Headlines:
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Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline approaches; a China trade framework is in place, and India extended talks to finalize a deal.
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Canada scrapped its digital tax hours before implementation to restart stalled trade negotiations.
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Trump floated maintaining 25% tariffs on Japanese cars, citing unfair practices.
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Fiscal Policy: Senate scrambles to meet Trump’s July 4 deadline for a $4.5 trillion tax cut bill, estimated to add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over 10 years. Votes on amendments begin this morning.
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Economic Calendar: Light day with Chicago PMI at 9:45am ET; Fed speakers Bostic (10am) and Goolsbee (1pm). No significant earnings reports.
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Market Technicals & Volatility:
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ES volatility remains elevated (5-day ADR: ~69 points) but trending lower if the rally continues.
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Whale positioning skews bullish on light overnight volume.
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Key ES levels: Resistance ~6388–6393, Support ~6046–6049, 6007–6010, 5614–5619.
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ES remains in the middle of its short-term uptrend channel, giving room for both sides to operate.
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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