Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  10:00ET New Home Sales; 10:30ET Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity; 11:30ET 2 Year Note Auction;
1:00ET 5 Year Note Auction

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• Ronna McDaniel to resign as Republican National Committee chair after Super Tuesday
• Hunter Biden tells Axios he needs to stay sober in ’24 to help defeat Trump
• A Charles Koch-backed PAC will cut off funding for Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign
  

Global shares paused as investor focus this week is set to shift from earnings to a slate of economic data, including Thursday’s US personal consumption expenditures
price index. Other macro events coming up this week include data on China’s manufacturing activity and inflation in the European Union. As the Israel-Hamas conflict continues in the Middle East, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN
on Sunday that negotiators for the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Israel had agreed on the basic contours of a hostage deal during talks in Paris but negotiations are still ongoing.  Benjamin Netanyahu told CBS he’ll have a “plan for action” in hand for moving
civilians out of Rafah ahead of an offensive.     

EQUITIES: 
 

US equity futures fluctuated around record highs as investors geared up for a busy week of data, including the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. A Reuters poll shows expectations
for CPI to rise 0.4%, up from 0.2% in December.  Berkshire Hathaway rose as much as 5.5% in premarket trading following its weekend earnings update. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group said stocks have room to extend gains beyond their record highs if the economic
outlook remains upbeat and investors rotate into recent laggards. Hedge funds are cashing out of tech stocks, selling at the fastest pace in seven months, data from Goldman’s prime-brokerage unit showed. Investors will also watching the risk that some US government
agencies could be shut down if Congress cannot agree on a borrowing extension by Friday. Amazon will replace Walgreens in the DJIA index prior to the opening today.    

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.02%, Nasdaq +0.05%, Russell 2000 -0.3%, DJI -0.05%  

In pre-market trading, Intuitive Machines (LUNR) slumps 26% after officials said on Friday the American-made lander that touched down on the moon likely landed on its side. Agilon Health
(AGL) falls 4% after Jefferies and Cowen cut their ratings on the health-care services company. Alcoa Corp. (AA) slips 3% after making a $2.2 billion offer to acquire its Australian joint-venture partner Alumina Ltd. Amer Sports (AS) jumps 4% after a majority
of brokers initiated coverage with buy-equivalent recommendations. HashiCorp (HCP) jumps 6% as Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation to overweight. Li Auto (LI) ADRs jump 10% after the company reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat analyst estimates,
as deep discounting spurred sales.

European gauges slipped from record highs as investors await fresh economic data to gauge whether central banks will be able to cut interest rates as fast as expected. The Stoxx 600 Index
edged lower, led by a selloff in mining stocks as iron ore sank to the lowest level since October. Rio Tinto and Anglo American led declines in basic resources amid concerns over Chinese demand. Shares in UK homebuilders dropped after Britain’s top antitrust
enforcer opened an investigation to probe potential information sharing between companies. Stoxx 600 -0.2%, DAX +0.1%, CAC -0.3%, FTSE 100 -0.3%. Financial Services +0.3%, Technology +0.3%. Basic Resources -1.8%, Energy -1%.

Asian stocks were mixed with MSCI’s Asia Pacific index little changed as Japanese shares continued their advance, countering a decline in China. Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended its climb
after reaching a record-high last week, helped by gains in trading houses after Warren Buffett’s positive comments on the sector’s shareholder-friendly policies.  The rally in Chinese stocks came to a halt, with the mainland benchmark CSI 300 Index snapping
its longest winning streak since 2018. Chinese robotics-related stocks rallied after news that Jeff Bezos, Nvidia Corp. and other big technology names are investing in a business that’s developing human-like robots. Korean stocks fell as the nation’s much-hyped
“Corporate Value-up Program” aimed at improving governance standards and valuations was launched without concrete details or an enforcement plan. Vietnam +1%, Topix +0.5%, Taiwan +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.1%. Philippines -0.3%, Singapore -0.4%, Sensex -0.5%, Hang
Seng Index -0.5%, Kospi -0.8%, CSI 300 -1%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are little changed as US session gets underway after paring gains. US rates stand to benefit this week from month-end rebalancing into bonds following
outperformance by equities. New York President John Williams said in an interview on Friday that the economy is headed in the right direction, and it will likely be appropriate to cut rates later this year.  A slew of Fed speakers this week are likely to reiterate
Williams’s comments that the central bank doesn’t feel pressure to begin cutting rates anytime soon. Today’s session includes 2- and 5-year note auctions and a potentially heavy corporate new-issue calendar.  10-year yield is around 4.245%, 2-year yield at
4.69%.

METALS: 
   

Gold steadied — following its biggest weekly gain in two months — as the market waits for more clarity on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates.
Swaps markets suggest investors don’t see much chance of a reduction in borrowing costs until June. Gold has drawn some support from a slightly weaker dollar in the past couple of weeks.  Spot gold -0.1%, silver -1.5%.

ENERGY:  

Oil followed a weekly drop with further losses as traders awaited fresh clues about global demand. Brent lost about 2% and WTI fell more than 3% last week on signs
that the US Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the core personal-consumption-expenditures index, is due Thursday. While concerns remain over the potential for an escalation of the Israel-Hamas
war, so far crude supplies have been largely unaffected. Geopolitical risk premium on Brent crude from by Yemeni Houthis on ships in the Red Sea remained modest at only a $2 a barrel, Goldman Sachs analysts said.  WTI -0.3%, Brent -0.3%, US Nat Gas +5.3%,
RBOB +0.6%

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the US$ Index is slightly lower in muted trading. The euro continued to rise amid month-end flows and the Aussie$ slipped after advancing for
eight straight days. New Zealand’s dollar fell as traders adjusted bullish positions ahead of the central bank’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday.   US$ Index -0.15%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD +0.3%, USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD -0.3%. 

Bitcoin -1.1%, Ethereum -1.6%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• AvalonBay (AVB) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $191.50
• Caret Holdings Inc (ROOT) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $22
• Celanese (CE) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $170
• Fannie Mae (FNMA) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $2
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna; PT $24
• Freddie Mac (FMCC) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $2.50
• Gap (GPS) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $20
• HashiCorp (HCP) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $30
• MediaAlpha (MAX) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $28
• National Health Investors (NHI) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush
• Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo
• Omega Healthcare (OHI) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo
• SJW (SJW) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $68
• Southwestern Energy (SWN) Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities
• Sun Country Airlines (SNCY) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Weave (WEAV) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
• Downgrades
• Agilon Health (AGL) Cut to Market Perform at Cowen; PT $6.50
• Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $6.50
• CareMax Inc (CMAX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $7.50
• Cogent Biosciences Inc (COGT) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $8
• FTAI Aviation (FTAI) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $59
• Harpoon Therapeutics (HARP) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $23
• Moderna (MRNA) Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $86
• Nordson (NDSN) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Onex (ONEX CN) Cut to Hold at TD; PT C$115
• Rivian (RIVN) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $11
• TransAlta (TA CN) Cut to Sector Underperform at Peters & Co; PT C$10
• UDR (UDR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $37
• Ventas (VTR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $46
• Initiations
• Accolade (ACCD) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $16
• Align Technology (ALGN) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $310
• Amer Sports (AS) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $20
• Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $19
• Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $19
• Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $18.50
• Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $21
• Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $21
• Rated New Hold at HSBC; PT $16
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $19
• Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $20
• Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $16
• Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $50
• Cardinal Health (CAH) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $125
• Cencora (COR) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $261
• Certara (CERT) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $19
• Coinbase (COIN) Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research; PT $160.90
• CVS (CVS) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $88
• Dentsply (XRAY) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $42
• Doximity (DOCS) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $32
• Drilling Tools International (DTI) Rated New Hold at Jefferies
• Envista Holdings (NVST) Rated New Underperform at Leerink; PT $19
• GoodRx Holdings (GDRX) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $8
• Henry Schein (HSIC) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $78
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $10
• Iqvia (IQV) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $290
• Labcorp (LH) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $260
• Leonardo DRS (DRS) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $23
• LiqTech International (LIQT) US Rated New Buy at Ascendiant Capital Markets; PT $5.15
• McKesson (MCK) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $600
• Owens & Minor (OMI) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $24
• Patterson Cos (PDCO) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $36
• Pet Valu (PET CN) Rated New Outperform at ATB Capital; PT C$41
• Phreesia (PHR) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $35
• PodcastOne (PODC) Rated New Buy at Roth MKM; PT $4.50
• Premier (PINC) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $22.50
• Progyny (PGNY) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $49
• Quest Diagnostics (DGX) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $135
• RCM (RCM) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $14
• Sable Offshore (SOC) Rated New Outperform at Cowen; PT $20
• Teladoc (TDOC) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $17
• Tesla (TSLA) Rated New Hold at China Renaissance; PT $180.16
• Walgreens Boots (WBA) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $23

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG