Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  8:30ET Trade Balance, Jobless Claims; 10:00ET Fed’s Harker speaks; 12:15ET Fed’s Barkin speaks;
12:45ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 2:00ET Fed’s Mester and Kashkari speak; Fed’s Musalem and Kugler speak tonight

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• Israel Economy Minister: “I Don’t Trust Qatar As A Mediator”
  
• Google may charge for “premium” features run by AI, the FT reported
  
• KISS is selling its song catalog to Pophouse for more than $300mm
  
• Trump campaign, RNC raised over $65mm in March, 3x the amount raised in February
  

Global shares gained as sentiment recovered after the Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates, easing
market concerns over a delay. Friday’s non-farm payrolls data for March is seen as a key point of investor focus in regard to the Fed’s next move. President Biden’s planned call with Netanyahu this morning is expected to be tense after the killing of 7 aid
workers in an Israeli strike. Israeli officials said cease-fire negotiations with Hamas are stalling as Israel braced for a potential Iranian attack. Elsewhere, Janet Yellen arrived in China for talks.        

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures edge higher after comments from Fed’s Powell helped ease some inflation worries, while investors await a deluge of Fed speakers today. In a forum Wednesday, Powell said
that policymakers will likely cut interest rates in 2024 after they have seen more evidence that inflation is easing. Chipmakers such as Micron Technology and Advanced Micro Devices advanced ahead of the bell, as analysts see limited impact on the semiconductor
market from Taiwan’s recent earthquake. Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.3%, DJI +0.25%.   

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.3%, DJI +0.25%

In pre-market trading,  BlackBerry (BB) ADRs rise 5% after the software firm reported a surprise 4Q profit. Levi Strauss (LEVI) jumps 13% after higher-than-expected sales and profit in
the first quarter helped fuel a more optimistic full-year outlook. Block (SQ) falls 3% after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation to underweight. Hertz (HTZ) slips 3% as Goldman Sachs cut its rating to sell, while raising its recommendation on Avis Budget
(CAR +2%) to neutral. MacroGenics (MGNX) rises 9% after the drug developer gave interim safety data from a mid-stage trial of its experimental treatment for patients with prostate cancer. Staar Surgical (STAA) rises 8% after the medical-devices firm reported
preliminary net sales for Q1 that topped estimates. Wayfair (W) climbs 4% after Evercore ISI raised its recommendation to outperform. Zeta Global (ZETA) gains 5% as Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight.

European gauges are modestly in the green after revisions to final Eurozone PMIs showed the composite reading returned to expansion. The Stoxx 600 Index is just slightly higher with miners
and autos leading gains while chemicals and media shares slip. Among other movers, Volvo Car AB jumped as much as 6% after reporting a 25% jump in vehicle sales. Sanofi SA edged higher after it had agreed to settle about 4,000 lawsuits accusing the French
drugmaker of selling its Zantac heartburn medicine without warning patients that it could cause cancer.  Stoxx 600 +0.05%, DAX +0.05%, CAC -0.05%, FTSE 100 +0.5%. Basic Resources +1.9%, Autos +1%, Banks +0.9%. Chemicals -0.8%, Media -0.6%.

Asian equities advanced, rebounding from Wednesday’s selloff, led by rallies in South Korea and Japan.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7%, despite thinner trading conditions due to
holidays in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Financials and tech companies among the biggest contributors to the gains. Samsung and SK Hynix boosted South Korean benchmarks as halts at DRAM plants in Taiwan due to Wednesday’s earthquake were seen to firm up prices.
The yen’s decline against most currencies bolstered Japanese stocks. Makoto Sakurai, a former board member said “The BoJ is likely to wait until autumn before mulling whether to raise interest rates again.  India’s Nifty Smallcap 250 Index climbed as much
as 1.1%, recouping losses sparked by the regulator’s concern over market froth. Kospi +1.3%, Indonesia +1.2%, Topix +0.95%, Sensex +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.4%, Singapore +0.4%. Vietnam -0.25%, Philippines -0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are cheaper across the curve, spreads within 1bp of Wednesday’s closing levels. European rates outperform after euro-area PMI and PPI data and long-end
supply from Spain and France. US session has several Fed speakers, with March jobs report ahead Friday.  Swap markets still price less than three rate cuts for 2024 and see only a 56% chance of the easing cycle starting in June. 10-year around 4.36%; 2-year
yield at 4.685% as it fluctuates between its 50 and 200 day moving averages.

METALS: 
   

Gold is lower after hitting a fresh record, as investors weighed Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the potential for a cut in interest rates in the coming months. Gold
has been on a tear since mid-February, setting a record each day so far this week. It has also found support from heightened geopolitical risks as well as central-bank purchases. Bullion pulled back from an intraday peak of $2,304.96 an ounce.  Silver earlier
jumped to the highest level in almost three years before easing. Spot gold -0.6%, silver -0.9%.    

ENERGY:   

Oil is little changed, around their highest in five months, supported by flaring geopolitical tensions and the threat of a disruption to supply if the Israel-Hamas
war in Gaza spreads to include Iran. The decision by OPEC+ to stick with its current output cuts for the rest of 1H is proving effective in keeping the market relatively tight and supporting crude. Iraq again missed its production target in March, potentially
setting itself up for added scrutiny. Gasoline supplies are starting to look very tight on the East Coast amid falling stockpiles before the peak summer demand season. US pump prices are near the highest since October. The Biden administration won’t move forward
with its latest plans to buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve amid rising prices. WTI is flat, Brent +0.03%, US Nat Gas -0.3%, RBOB is flat.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the dollar is lower for a third straight day with continued pressure from the post-ISM sell off and nearing its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
The yen is steady with little reaction to soft  jawboning overnight.  Former top-diplomat Watanabe said intervention is not likely unless USD/JPY sharply eclipses 155.00. The Swiss franc weakened after another cool Swiss inflation print, vindicating the central
bank’s surprise interest-rate cut last month. CPI rose 1% from a year ago in March, the lowest reading in 2 1/2 years.  US$ Index -0.15%, GBPUSD +0.02%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY +0.02%, AUDUSD +0.6%, NZDUSD +0.5%, USDCHF +0.6%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.6%, Ethereum +1%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Avis Budget (CAR) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $130
• BOK Financial (BOKF) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
• Bread Financial Holdings (BFH) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $48
• Capital One (COF) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $189
• Old Second (OSBC) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
• Sabre (SABR) Raised to Buy at CFRA
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $50
• Wayfair (W) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $80
• Zeta (ZETA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $17
• Downgrades
• Asensus Surgical Inc (ASXC) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• Ball (BALL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $71
• Bank of America (BAC) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $40
• Block (SQ) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $60
• BrightView (BV) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $10
• Bumble (BMBL) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Celanese (CE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $170
• Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $160
• Chubb (CB) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $270
• CSN (CSNA3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Underperform at Itau BBA; PT $3
• Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $71
• Endeavor Group (EDR) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $27.50
• Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $27.50
• Ferrari (RACE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $433.76
• Hertz (HTZ) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $7
• MGIC (MTG) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $24
• Radian (RDN) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $35
• Texas Capital (TCBI) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Initiations
• Arcos Dorados (ARCO) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $14.10
• Azenta Inc (AZTA) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $64
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $22
• Cadence Design (CDNS) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $334
• Certara (CERT) Rated New Market Perform at JMP
• Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• DoorDash (DASH) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $165
• Evergy (EVRG) Rated New Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $51
• Fortinet (FTNT) Rated New Buy at Mirae Asset Daewoo; PT $90.14
• GE Vernova (GEV) Rated New Hold at Spin-Off Research; PT $145
• Gibraltar Industries (ROCK) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $91
• Grindr (GRND) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $14
• HealthEquity (HQY) Rated New Market Outperform at JMP; PT $101
• Ingredion (INGR) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $129
• Lions Gate (LGF/A) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research; PT $11.50
• LPL Financial (LPLA) Rated New Underperform at Raymond James
• Match Group (MTCH) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
• Mural Oncology (MURA) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $13
• Oddity Tech (ODD) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $57
• OptimizeRx (OPRX) Rated New Market Outperform at JMP; PT $15
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Rated New Buy at Mirae Asset Daewoo
• Papa John’s (PZZA) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research; PT $79.20
• PGT Innovations (PGTI) Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research
• Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research
• Post Holdings (POST) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $113.90
• Reddit (RDDT) Rated New Underperform at Bernstein; PT $40
• Rated New Neutral at Baird; PT $50
• Reynolds (REYN) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $32.50
• SharkNinja (SN) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $70
• Standard BioTools Inc (LAB) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $3.25
• Synopsys (SNPS) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $665
• Tango Therapeutics (TNGX) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
• United Parks & Resorts (PRKS) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $73
• Upstart (UPST) Reinstated Underperform at BofA; PT $22
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $131

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG