Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity ; 9:00ET Fed’s Barkin and Waller speak;
9:05ET Fed’s Williams speaks; 9:10ET Fed’s Bostic speaks; 11:45ET Fed’s Barr speaks; 7:00ET Fed’s Bostic, Collins and Mester speak

HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• Trump raised more money last month than Biden for the first time in this election cycle
• Crude oil lower after again testing key 200-day mvg avg

Global stocks eased overnight as investors awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting on Wednesday to gauge the timing and extent of possible
interest rate cuts this year. The minutes predate last week’s softer CPI reading. Investors are on alert for potential stumbling blocks facing markets after a blistering rally that’s lifted MSCI’s All-Country equity index close to 10% this year. Inflation-related
releases across the Group of Seven will prime central bankers for crucial June interest-rate decisions as they meet in Italy to discuss the state of the world economy.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures were muted amid policy caution from Fed officials ahead of the central bank’s meeting minutes due tomorrow. Investors now await remarks during the day from a slew of
Fed officials including Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic and Michael Barr. JPMorgan analyst, Marko Kolanovic, held firm in his gloomy outlook on equities and urged clients not to buy stocks. That came after Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson abandoned
his pessimistic stock view yesterday. The main focus for markets now is AI bellwether Nvidia which reports late tomorrow and has powered a large chunk of the S&P 500’s recent earnings. Nvidia’s stock, up more than 90% this year, rose 2.5% on Monday, sending
the Nasdaq 100 index to another record high.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P %, Nasdaq %, Russell 2000 %, DJI %

In pre-market trading, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) slid as much as 8.5% after the security software company issued a downbeat forecast for the current period, renewing concerns about a
slowdown in cybersecurity services. Lam Research (LRCX) gains 4% after approving a $10 billion share repurchase authorization and a 10-for-1 stock split. Peloton Interactive fell 2.8% as the fitness equipment maker was looking to refinance its debt to regain
its footing amid falling sales. US-listed shares of Li Auto (LI) lost 4.5% after the Chinese firm postponed plans to launch pure electric SUV models to next year. Citius Pharmaceuticals (CTXR) climbs 28% after the biopharma firm said a late-stage study its
antibiotic treatment for catheter-related bloodstream infections met its primary and secondary endpoints. Larimar Therapeutics (LRMR) jumps 18% after the biotech company said the FDA removed a partial clinical hold on its nomlabofusp program. Lowe’s Cos. (LOW)
rises 2% after reporting comparable sales that beat. Macy’s (M) climbs 3% after profit beat, leading the company to raise its outlook for the remainder of the year. Zoom Video Communications (ZM) declines 3% after the video-conferencing software company gave
an earnings forecast that was weaker than expected.

European gauges are pulling back from recent record highs, as investors turned their focus to this week’s earnings from artificial intelligence-bellwether Nvidia Corp. while monitoring
for fresh clues on the outlook for interest rates. The Stoxx 600 index slipped, with drugmaker GSK Plc among the losers as it faced a whistleblower lawsuit that could cost it billions of dollars. AstraZeneca climbs as much as 1.4% after saying it aims to almost
double sales to $80 billion by 2030. Panoro Energy jumps as much as 8.4% after the oil company made a significant new oil discovery. Stoxx 600 -0.4%, DAX -0.5%, CAC -1%, FTSE 100 -0.4%. Banks -1.5%, Food & Bev -0.7%, Insurance -0.7%, Technology -0.5%.

Shares in Asia were broadly lower after data showed little sign of a turnaround in China’s debt-plagued property sector, with local governments experiencing the lowest revenue from land
sales in eight years. Some analysts say Beijing’s package of rescue measures is too small to end the housing market rout. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.7%, with Tencent and AIA among the biggest drags. Tencent suspended its hotly anticipated Dungeon
& Fighter Mobile game within an hour of its China debut due to server glitches. Alibaba fell over 1% as it slashed prices for a clutch of AI services by as much as 97%. The Hang Seng Index slid more than 2% as electric-vehicle maker Li Auto’s earnings miss
sparked concerns over corporate results in China. Hang Seng Tech -3.7%, Hang Seng Index -2.1%, Indonesia -1.1%, Philippines -0.7%, Kospi -0.6%, CSI 300 -0.4%, Topix -0.3%, Taiwan -0.15%, ASX 200 -0.15%, Sensex -0.1%. Nikkei 225 +0.1%.  

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve with front- and belly leading the day’s advance, following similar gains seen across core European bonds after bond
sales out of Germany and UK. The US session lacks scheduled data, leaving focus on another heavy dose of Fed speakers. US yields richer by 1.5bp to 2.5bp across the curve with belly-led gains steepening 5s30s spread by almost 1bp on the day; 10-year yields
around 4.430%.

METALS: 

Gold eased back from Monday’s all-time high, with investors assessing recent hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials that downplayed the possibility of
imminent rate cuts. Still, despite a lack of clarity over the timing of rate cuts, the underlying consensus that policymakers will lower borrowing costs at some point this year continues to underpin prices. Bullion fell as much as 0.8% on Tuesday before paring
most of the losses. China’s gold imports slumped last month to 136 tons, a 30% drop from March and the lowest total for the year.  Spot gold -0.1%, silver -0.2%, copper +1.2%.

ENERGY:   

Crude oil declined on worries of US interest rates staying high for longer as Fed officials maintained a cautious view on a recent easing of inflation. Oil prices
have traded in a narrow range despite ongoing drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and another Houthi attack against a tanker in the Red Sea area over the weekend. Traders are turning their attention to the OPEC+ meeting in early June, where a rollover
of existing curbs is expected. OPEC countries cutting production may not put volumes back on the market in 2024, FGE said. Crude will probably trade in a narrow range amid a “very sloppy” physical market, RBC said.  Russia maintained its position as China’s
top oil supplier in April, marking the 12th consecutive month. China’s imports from Russia rose 30% year-on-year, while supplies from Saudi Arabia fell by 25% due to higher prices.  WTI -1.8%, Brent -1.8%, US Nat Gas -1.8%, RBOB -1.7%.

CURRENCIES:   

A thin data calendar is keeping currency ranges tight and the dollar steady as traders stay on the sidelines in search of fresh impetus. Deutsche Bank is sticking
with its bullish view on the dollar into the second half of the year, betting that US interest rate cuts will have limited impact on the currency if US yields remain higher than other developed countries. Japan’s finance minister Suzuki said that wage increases
would dispel the nation’s deflationary mindset. The Aussie$ fell before erasing the drop after the RBA minutes showed the bank resumed a discussion of interest-rate hikes at its May policy meeting. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD +0.05%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY +0.05%,
AUDUSD +0.05%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDNOK -0.35%.

Spot Bitcoin +2.3%, Ethereum +7.8%. Ether was set for its largest two-day gain in nearly two years and bitcoin approached a record high on speculation about the outcome
of applications for US spot exchange-traded funds that track Ethereum. Traders snapped up cryptocurrencies following a report that the SEC had abruptly asked exchanges that want to trade ether ETFs to update regulatory filings, boosting bets that approval
could come this week.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Coinbase (COIN) Raised to Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $256.73
• Disney (DIS) Raised to Neutral at Redburn; PT $100
• Global-e Online (GLBE) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $37
• HP Inc (HPQ) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $30
• Inter&Co (INTR) Raised to Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $8
• New Gold (NGD CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$3.07
• Raised to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$2.73
• Pampa Energia (PAMP AR) ADRs Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $46
• SLB (SLB) Raised to Buy at CFRA
• SouthState Corp (SSB) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $90
• Downgrades
• CAE (CAE CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$30
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$19
• Itron (ITRI) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $109
• Metals Acquisition (MTAL) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $12
• Pure Storage (PSTG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $51
• Sunnova Energy (NOVA) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $4.50
• Toast (TOST) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $28
• Wix.com (WIX) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $184
• Initiations
• Boyd Gaming (BYD) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $67
• Brink’s (BCO) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT C$25
• Penn Entertainment Inc (PENN) Reinstated Outperform at Raymond James
• Q32 Bio Inc (QTTB) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $54
• Sotera (SHC) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $13
• Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) ADRs Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan
• Super Hi (9658 HK) ADRs Rated New Buy at SPDB Intl HK; PT $26.70

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG