Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES   8:30ET Housing Starts, Building Permits; 1:00ET 20 year note auction

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  

• REUTERS POLL- EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK DEPOSIT RATE TO REMAIN AT 4.00% THROUGH TO YEAR-END, SAID ALL 70 ECONOMISTS
  
• Congress is distributing tips to avoid being carjacked in the capital
• CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS CEO TILLY RESIGNS FOLLOWING INVESTIGATION
  

Global stocks were little changed as traders avoided big bets ahead of a slew of policy decisions. Interest rate decisions are due this week from the central banks
of the US, Britain, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland and Norway. The RBA minutes showed the bank considered the case for raising interest rates this month but opted to hold off amid concerns its succession of hikes could slow the economy more sharply. The world
economy is set for a slowdown as interest-rate increases weigh on activity and China’s pandemic rebound disappoints, according to the latest OECD forecasts. They see global growth easing to 2.7% in 2024 from 3% this year.  With the exception of 2020, when
Covid struck, that would mark the weakest annual expansion since the global financial crisis.                                         

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are slightly higher as the Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting today with officials widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for now. The prospect
of rates staying higher for longer has drained some of the enthusiasm toward tech shares. Flows suggest investors are positioning for more losses in the Nasdaq 100, according to Citigroup strategists. BofA strategists said clients flocked out of tech shares
last week but are still buying equities overall. Meanwhile, the UAW warned it will expand its auto workers’ strike from noon Friday if “serious progress” isn’t made in talks with Ford, GM and Stellantis.                                   

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.05%, Russell 2000 +0.15%, Dow +0.05%.

In pre-market trading, Block (SQ) shares fall as much as 1.7% after the digital payments firm said that the CEO of its Square business is leaving, with Jack Dorsey to take over. Equinox
Gold (EQX) falls 13% after the company agrees to sell $150 million of 4.75% unsecured convertible senior notes. Nio (NIO) falls over 5% after reporting proposed offering of $500m of convertible senior notes. Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) shares plunge 25%, after the
spacecraft maker said its rocket had experienced an issue shortly after launch, forcing it to end the mission. CVS Health (CVS) edges up 1% as Evercore ISI upgraded the stock to outperform from inline. Dell Technologies (DELL) shares rise as much as 1.9% after
Daiwa Securities upgraded the computer company to outperform from neutral on better demand trends. Stitch Fix (SFIX) slumps 6.5% after the online clothing company said it would withdraw from the UK market and reported a bigger fourth-quarter net loss than
expected. Instacart priced its IPO at $30 a share, the top of the range.     

European stock indexes fluctuated as traders braced for this week’s burst of central bank decisions.  ECB’s Villeroy indicated that current rates are at appropriate levels and prefers
on being patient on further rate hikes. Euro-area inflation slowed last month after all, according to revised data.  Core inflation was confirmed at 5.3%. An anticipated uptick in UK CPI data is due tomorrow ahead of a probable 25 bp hike from the BOE on Thursday.
The Bank of France raised its GDP forecast for 2023, easing fears of recession in the country.   Stoxx 600 is ~flat, DAX -0.2%, CAC +0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.05%. REITs +1.4%, Autos +0.9%, Financial Services +0.8%. Retail -0.5%, Healthcare -0.6%.    

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower, with rising inflationary pressure from higher oil prices keeping the door open for hawkish messages from global central banks this week. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index slipped 0.1% as technology and health-care shares weighed. Japanese equities were mixed after the market reopened following a holiday. Australia slid as traders parsed minutes from the central bank’s September meeting. Hong Kong and mainland
Chinese benchmarks traded in a tight range as investors weighed the recent green shoots in economic data against ongoing property sector woes. Hang Seng Index +0.35%, Topix +0.1%, Vietnam -0.03%, CSI 300 -0.2%, Taiwan -0.35%, ASX 200 -0.5%, Kospi -0.6%, Nikkei
225 -0.9%, Philippines -1.25%. Chile and India were closed.     

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are little changed as US trading day begins, holding within a narrow range overnight. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries were flat around 4.317%, not far
off the 16-year high of 4.366% touched in mid-August.  An auction of 20-year bonds will be watched closely later today, as will August housing starts numbers following another drop in homebuilder sentiment in the latest NAHB survey.                  

METALS: 
           

Gold steadied after three days of gains as investors wait for interest rate decisions by major central banks. The question now for gold traders is whether the Fed
is willing to acknowledge that it’s probably done with rate hikes, as we heard from the ECB last week, analysts at Oanda said in a note. Meanwhile, China’s copper demand is slowing at a time of the year when it usually picks up. Spot gold +0.1%, silver +0.5%,
copper -1.1%.                          

ENERGY:  

Oil prices are rising for a fourth consecutive session as weak US shale output spurred further concerns about a supply deficit. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister on
Monday defended OPEC+ cuts to oil supply, saying international energy markets need light-handed regulation to limit volatility.  A stronger than expected US economy is helping to keep a global slowdown in check this year but a weakening Chinese economy will
prove to be a bigger drag next year, the OECD said in its forecast today. WTI +0.7%, Brent +0.5%, US Nat Gas -0.6%, RBOB -0.1%.                           

CURRENCIES:   

The dollar inched lower, holding just below its highest level in six months, while commodity currencies lead gains in the G-10 space. The yuan declines amid mounting
concerns over China’s property sector and capital flight from the nation’s financial markets. Chinese banks are likely to keep loan prime rates unchanged on Wednesday. US$ Index -0.25%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.2%, AUDUSD +0.35%, USDCAD -0.4%, USDJPY +0.05%.   
          

Bitcoin +1.5%, Ethereum 0.5%. 

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance

• Upgrades
• (CCL) Carnival Raised to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $17
• (CVS) CVS Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $83
• (DELL) Dell Technologies Raised to Outperform at Daiwa
• (GMED) Globus Medical Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $61
• (MU) Micron Raised to Buy at Aletheia Capital; PT $86
• (RCL) Royal Caribbean Raised to Buy at Truist Secs
• (REXR) Rexford Industrial Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $70
• (RXT) Rackspace Technology Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
• Downgrades
• (CCCM CN) C3 Metals Inc Cut to Speculative Buy at Beacon Securities
• (CNHI) CNH Industrial Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $14
• (DE) Deere Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $424
• (DQ) Daqo New Energy ADRs Cut to Hold at Daiwa; PT $32
• (KNTE) Kinnate Biopharma Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $2
• (KNTE) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• (KNTE) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $4
• (LAZ) Lazard Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $32
• (PLNT) Planet Fitness Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $52
• (SBUX) Starbucks Cut to Market Perform at Cowen; PT $107
• Initiations
• (AKRO) Akero Therapeutics Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $69
• (AMXB MM) America Movil ADRs Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $19.16
• (ARM) ARM Holdings ADRs Rated New Neutral at Redburn; PT $50
• (ARWR) Arrowhead Pharma Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $33
• (AUR) Aurora Innovation Rated New Market Perform at Cowen; PT $3
• (BTM) Bitcoin Depot Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $6
• (CGY CN) Calian Group Rated New Outperform at CIBC; PT C$65
• (COCO) Vita Coco Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $29
• (EXLS) ExlService Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT $33
• (GEHC) GE Healthcare Rated New Buy at Citi
• (PMTS) CPI Card Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $31
• (PRAX) Praxis Precision Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $10
• (RJF) Raymond James Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $121
• (RYAN) Ryan Specialty Rated New Market Perform at JMP
• (SMCI) Super Micro Computer Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $327
• (SVI CN) StorageVault Canada Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$6
• (TIMS3 BZ) Tim Brasil ADRs Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $19.39
• (TLEVICPO MM) Televisa ADRs Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $3.66
• (VIVT3 BZ) Vivo ADRs Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $8.78
• (WNS) WNS Holdings ADRs Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $82

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG