Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 10:00ET Construction Spending,
ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, ISM Employment 

HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• Chewy Shares Spike Again as Roaring Kitty Reveals $245 Million Position
• Presidential immunity case dropping today

Global stocks started the week on a positive note after Marine Le Pen’s far-right party finished the first round of elections with a smaller margin of victory than
expected, reducing the chances of her pushing through radical fiscal policies. The spread between French and German 10-year bonds narrowed to a two-week low. France’s second round of voting will be held on July 7. Adding to sentiment, China’s manufacturing
activity expanded in June to the highest in three years, according to the private Caixin survey. Manufacturing activity across the euro zone took a turn for the worse last month as demand fell at a much faster pace despite factories cutting their prices, a
survey showed. Asian factories enjoyed solid momentum. Hong Kong and Canada are closed for holidays.   

EQUITIES:

US equity futures are higher as the second half of 2024 begins in a holiday shortened week. For the quarter, the S&P and Nasdaq added 3.9% and 8.3%, respectively, while the Dow lost 1.7%.
Single-stock analysts predict profits at S&P 500 firms rose 9% on average in the April-June period — the biggest year-over-year increase since the fourth quarter of 2021, Goldman strategists wrote in a note. Boeing agreed to buy back Spirit Aero in an all-stock
deal valuing it at $4.7 billion. The deal comes as the DOJ plans to charge the plane maker with fraud. It has until the end of the week to decide whether to plead guilty, sources said. Investor focus now shifts to remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday,
followed by minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting on Wednesday and US nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.2%.

In pre-market trading, Spirit AeroSystems Holdings rose as much as 6% after Boeing agreed to buy back the supplier in an all-stock deal that values it at $4.7B. Chewy shares rose as much
as 29% after Keith Gill, “Roaring Kitty,” disclosed a 6.6% passive stake in the online pet food and product retailer. Birkenstock (BIRK) rises 3% after UBS boosted its rating to buy. NIO ADRs (NIO) climbs 4% after the Chinese EV maker reported a rise in June
deliveries.

European gauges opened sharply higher before paring some gains as investors took French election results as a sign that the nation may be headed for political gridlock. France’s CAC 40
jumped as much as 2.8% before retracing half of those gains. Banking stocks led the advance across Europe, as French lenders Societe Generale SA, BNP Paribas SA and Credit Agricole SA all surged by more than 5%. The CAC is still about 5% lower since the election
was called last month. History shows that July is a month of rebound for the Stoxx 600, politics — including July elections in France and the UK — will have a say in whether the pattern holds this year. Plus, the next earnings season is nearing. Stoxx 600
+0.6%, DAX +0.4%, CAC +1.5%, FTSE 100 +0.4%. Banks +2.6%, Utilities +1.7%, Construction +1.2%, Retail +1.1%. Healthcare -0.3%, Tech -0.3%, Media -0.7%.

Shares in Asia rose, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edging higher by 0.3%, with Hitachi, Mitsubishi Corp. and BHP Group contributing the most. Financial companies led gains in Japan,
boosted by bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike. Shares also were helped by survey data that showed confidence among the country’s large manufacturers rose. In China, mainland equities reversed earlier losses after a private gauge of factory activity rose to
a three-year high. Indonesia +1.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.9%, Vietnam +0.7%, Sensex +0.55%, Topix +0.5%, Kospi +0.2%, Taiwan +0.1%, ASX 200 -0.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper from belly out to long-end of the curve which underperforms, adding to Friday’s aggressive steepening that accelerated into the month-end
close.  European bonds lag significantly as haven demand is unwound with the first round of voting in France pointing to no single party gaining an absolute majority. US session highlights include ISM manufacturing gauge, while Fed Chair Powell is scheduled
to speak tomorrow. 10-year yield is around 4.41%, 2s10s spread steeper by 1.5bps.

METALS: 

Gold gained as traders weighed China’s economic outlook and geopolitical risks. Traders are also looking ahead to a busy week for US economic data that should give
more clues about the potential for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This week will see a slew of US employment data, including the JOLTS job openings on Tuesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Spot gold +0.4%, silver +0.4%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices are rising as signs point toward a military conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, stoking fears of a confrontation with OPEC member Iran. The Pentagon
has moved military assets closer to Lebanon to prepare for the evacuation of Americans. Hezbollah could target Israel’s offshore gas operations if war breaks out, and Israel could seek to hit Iranian oil facilities, according to RBC Capital Markets. There
is also a risk that Iran could attack tankers in the Strait of Hormuz or abandon a détente with Saudi Arabia and hit the kingdom’s oil facilities, according to the firm. WTI +0.7%, Brent +0.75%, US Nat Gas -1.7%, RBOB +1.25%

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the euro rallied against the greenback reaching its highest level since June 13, following the first round of France’s legislative election.
Macron’s centrist alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front are weighing whether to pull candidates from the second round of the legislative election on Sunday. The yen is slightly lower after manufacturing data today left the door open for the Bank of
Japan to consider an interest-rate hike later this month. US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.3%, USDJPY +0.15%, AUDUSD ~flat, NZDUSD +0.03%, USDCHF +0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin +1.3%, Ethereum +1.4%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Adecoagro (AGRO) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $11.50
• Adient (ADNT) Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $26
• Americold Realty Trust (COLD) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $31
• Birkenstock (BIRK) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $85
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $167
• Magna Intl (MG CN) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT C$72.44
• Teleflex (TFX) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $245
• Downgrades
• Amedisys (AMED) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Cassava Sciences (SAVA) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• ICF International (ICFI) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $155
• NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $30
• Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $115
• Initiations
• Africa Oil (AOI CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT C$3.50
• Altice USA (ATUS) Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $2
• American Tower (AMT) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $230
• Amkor Technology (AMKR) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $48
• AT&T (T) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $22
• Axogen (AXGN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $13
• BioVie (BIVI) Rated New Buy at ThinkEquity; PT $3
• Birkenstock (BIRK) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $65
• CalciMedica (CALC) Rated New Buy at Singular Research; PT $11.25
• Charter Communications (CHTR) Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $250
• Cogent Comms (CCOI) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
• Crown Castle (CCI) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
• Digital Realty (DLR) Rated New Buy at Goldman
• Engene Holdings (ENGN) Rated New Buy at Kempen & Co; PT $30
• Equinix (EQIX) Rated New Buy at Goldman
• Frontier (FYBR) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $29
• Gannett Co (GCI) Rated New Market Outperform at JMP; PT $6
• Gauzy (GAUZ) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $24
• Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $18
• GE Vernova (GEV) Rated New Sell at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $128
• Ihs Holding (IHS) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
• Immix Biopharma (IMMX) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $7
• Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (KNSA) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $32
• Lumen Technologies (LUMN) Rated New Sell at Goldman
• SBA Comms (SBAC) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
• T-Mobile (TMUS) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $200
• Talkspace (TALK) Rated New Hold at Needham
• Verizon (VZ) Rated New Buy at Goldman
• W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $103

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG