Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ECB Rate Decision; 8:30ET Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook;
8:45ET ECB Press Conference; 10:00ET Leading Index, Fed’s Goolsbee speaks;1:00ET 10-Year TIPS Auction; 1:45ET Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks;  2:00ET Total Net TIC Flows; 6:05ET Fed’s Mary Daly speaks; 7:45ET Fed’s Michelle Bowman speaks

ECB LEAVES MAIN REFINANCING RATE AT 4.25%; ECB NOT PRE-COMMITTING TO PARTICULAR RATE PATH

HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• President Biden is “being receptive” in talks about ending his reelection bid, a senior adviser tells CNN
• Biden canceled an additional $1.2 billion in student debt for public servants today

Global markets are trying to steady as concerns of heightened geopolitical tensions reverberated across Asian markets after the Biden administration floated tougher
trade restrictions on China. That added to jitters following Donald Trump’s comments on Taiwan taking away all of the chip business from the US and his doubts on the country’s duty to defend Taiwan. The MSCI World index is little changed. The MSCI gauge for
developing world stocks dropped for a fifth straight day, the most consecutive declines for the index since August. China’s ruling Communist Party vowed to deepen supply-side reform to create new momentum for growth, according to a statement marking the close
of Third Plenum. The ECB looks set to keep rates on hold today, but investors will be watching Christine Lagarde for hints at an expected reduction in September.            

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are mixed, a day after market rotation saw the DJIA hit an all-time high while S&P 500 fell more than 1% and Nasdaq suffered its worst day since 2022. Treasury yields
and the dollar both hit four-month lows as Federal Reserve officials indicated the central bank was getting closer to cutting interest rates. US tech stocks are set to claw back a little of this week’s slump, buoyed by upbeat earnings from the world’s largest
chipmaker (TSMC) and the prospect of encouraging results from other big companies in the sector. Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Super Micro Computer all rose strongly in premarket trading. Netflix will be the first major US tech company to report results
today. It’s expected to show continued growth in global subscriber numbers. Airline stocks lost ground in the premarket after the earnings outlook for United Airlines fell short of estimates. Beyond Meat also slid on concerns over a possible debt restructuring.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.6%, Russell 2000 -0.25%, DJI -0.1%

In pre-market trading, Chuy’s Holdings (CHUY) surges 46% after Darden Restaurants agreed to purchase the Tex-Mex restaurant chain. Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) drops 11% as second-quarter results
showed that discounts and new product launches weren’t strong enough to attract more value-seeking diners. D.R. Horton (DHI) slips 2% after the homebuilder reported weaker-than-expected quarterly orders. Leslie’s (LESL) slumps 22% after the swimming pool supplies
retailer slashed its full-year forecast. Toast (TOST) rises 3% as Mizuho upgrades the stock to outperform. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) rises 7% after the Financial Times reported that the company is considering splitting its streaming and studio businesses
from legacy TV. ZimVie (ZIMV) gains 13% after Bloomberg reported that Osstem Implant Co. is in advanced talks to acquire the company.

European gauges are higher, shrugging off the retreat on Wall Street, with London energized by the previous day’s oil price surge. FTSE 100 index rallied with BP and Shell shares gaining
more than one percent, as investors also digested steady UK unemployment data. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose in choppy trading, led by the auto and media sectors. Travel and leisure stocks were the biggest laggards after United Airlines results failed to
meet investor expectations. Technology shares also trailed but pared some of their worst declines. On the earnings front, Volvo AB rose after it reported better-than-expected profits for the second quarter, though the update from telecom firm Nokia Oyj disappointed,
knocking the stock as much as 10% lower before recovering half its losses. Novartis fell after its closely-watched prostate cancer drug Pluvicto disappointed, taking the shine off a raised profit forecast. Stoxx 600 +0.4%, DAX +0.3%, CAC +0.7%, FTSE 100 +0.6%.
Autos +1.6%, Media +1%. Travel & Leisure -1.2%.

Asian stocks were mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%, weighed down by a selloff in chipmakers on anxiety over US restrictions on chip sales to China.  TSMC was the biggest drag
on the benchmark, even after the Taiwanese chipmaker raised its revenue outlook. Japanese shares fell the most, led by a slide in Tokyo Electron.  Stocks in mainland China reversed early losses, coinciding with increased activity in several exchange-traded
funds that the so-called national team is known to favor. China’s Communist Party vowed to implement measures to resolve debt risks in property and local government. It also plans to attract foreign investment. More details are expected in coming days. Indonesia
+1.3%, Sensex +0.8%, CSI 300 +0.55%, Vietnam +0.5%, Hang Seng Index +0.2%. Nikkei 225 -2.4%, Taiwan -1.6%, Kospi -0.7%, Singapore -0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are cheaper by 2bp-3bp, following similar move in bunds ahead of European Central Bank policy decision. US 10-year yield is around 4.185%, 2.5bps higher
on the day, after holding a key short term .618 Fibonacci retracement. Curve spreads are within a basis point of Wednesday’s close. US session includes weekly jobless claims, 10-year TIPS auction and several Fed speakers. 

METALS: 

Gold remained near record highs amid growing optimism that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates in September. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said
that the US central bank is ‘getting closer’ to an interest rate cut. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that easing in inflation had begun to broaden and he would like to see it continue,” per Reuters. Spot gold +0.3%, silver +0.4%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices steadied after rising two percent Wednesday on signs of strengthening crude demand in top consumer the United States. OPEC+ delegates expect the group’s
monitoring session next month to be routine, with no changes to plans for a supply hike starting in the fourth quarter, sources said. Citi recommended clients sell oil over the next three months amid low volatility. WTI -0.3%, Brent -0.25%, US Nat Gas +0.9%,
RBOB +0.05%.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the dollar advanced versus most peers amid muted flows. The euro weakened as analysts expected the ECB to hold rates steady after June’s initial
cut. The yuan extended gains after China’s central bank strengthened its fixing by the most in more than two months. Meanwhile, the yen weakened from a six-week high as local businesses bought dollars, and the Australian dollar ticked higher after strong jobs
data. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +0.2%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD -0.25%, USDNOK +0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.5%, Spot Ethereum +1.3%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Allstate (ALL) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $191
• ASML (ASML NA) ADRs Raised to Buy at Fubon; PT $1,440
• Banco de Chile (CHILE CI) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander
• Block (SQ) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Elf Beauty (ELF) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $230
• Fortinet (FTNT) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $75
• Gap (GPS) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $29
• Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR-U CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank
• StorageVault Canada (SVI CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank
• Toast (TOST) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $33
• VF Corp (VFC) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $20
• Downgrades
• 10X Genomics (TXG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $20
• Allied Properties Real Estate (AP-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$18.50
• BSR Real Estate (HOM/U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Cut to Sell at Redburn; PT $275
• Doximity (DOCS) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $19
• First Horizon (FHN) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $18
• Foot Locker (FL) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $18
• Hub Group (HUBG) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $43
• Inari Medical (NARI) Cut to Hold at Needham
• Interfor (IFP CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$18
• Leslie’s (LESL) Cut to Sell at Stifel; PT $2.50
• Melco Resorts (MLCO) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $7
• Molson Coors (TAP) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT $325
• PayPal (PYPL) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $98
• Primaris REIT (PMZ-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$15
• SPX Technologies (SPXC) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Teradyne (TER) Cut to Market Perform at Northland
• Torrid (CURV) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $5
• Initiations
• Antero Resources (AR) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
• APA Corp (APA) Reinstated Outperform at Wolfe; PT $42
• AstraZeneca (AZN LN) ADRs Rated New Buy at BOCOM Intl; PT $93.30
• BP (BP/ LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $57
• Bristol Myers (BMY) Rated New Sell at BOCOM Intl; PT $33.10
• Cemig (CMIG4 BZ) ADRs Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $2.10
• Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) US Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $14
• Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $110
• Chevron (CVX) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
• Chord Energy (CHRD) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Civitas Resources Inc (CIVI) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $88
• Comstock Resources (CRK) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Conoco (COP) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $145
• Copel (CPLE6 BZ) ADRs Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $10.10
• Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $35
• Crescent Energy Co (CRGY) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $15
• Delek US Holdings (DK) Reinstated Underperform at Wolfe; PT $19
• Devon (DVN) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Diamondback (FANG) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Dominion Energy (D) Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research
• Eletrobras (ELET3 BZ) ADRs Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $10
• EOG Resources (EOG) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• EQT Corp (EQT) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $51
• Exxon (XOM) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $146
• G. Mining Ventures (GMIN CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$16
• GigaCloud Technology (GCT) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl
• Grocery Outlet (GO) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $28
• Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
• Hess (HES) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• HF Sinclair (DINO) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Imperial Oil (IMO CN) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT C$108
• Impinj (PI) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• LCI Industries (LCII) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $130
• Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $33
• Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $200
• Matador Resources (MTDR) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Murphy Oil (MUR) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Nvidia (NVDA) Rated New Buy at Mirae Asset Securities; PT $180
• Occidental (OXY) Reinstated Outperform at Wolfe; PT $81
• Ovintiv (OVV) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $65
• PagerDuty Inc (PD) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $24
• PBF Energy (PBF) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Permian Resources (PR) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• PG&E (PCG) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research; PT $21.10
• Phillips 66 (PSX) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Range Resources (RRC) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Serve Robotics (SERV) Rated New Buy at Aegis; PT $8
• Shell (SHEL LN) ADRs Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
• Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Reinstated Outperform at Macquarie
• Southwestern Energy (SWN) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Spectral AI (MDAI) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $3.50
• Suncor (SU CN) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT C$68
• Thor Industries (THO) Rated New Hold at Benchmark
• TKO (TKO) Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT $129
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $87
• Valero Energy (VLO) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $177
• Vital Energy Inc (VTLE) Rated New Underperform at Wolfe; PT $50
• Winnebago Industries (WGO) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $75

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG