Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Initial Jobless Claims; 8:45ET Fed’s Hammack speaks;
9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI; 10:00ET New Home Sales; 11:00ET KC Fed Manf. Activity; 1:00ET 5-year TIPS auction

HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• China Asks Carmakers to Halt Europe Expansion Over Tariff Spat
• Canada slashed its annual immigration target by 21%
  
• The US asked the G-7 to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium
  
• United Parcel Service returned to sales and profit growth for the first time in nearly two years

World stocks are on track for their first day of gains this week after a slew of positive earnings surprises in Europe and blowout results from Tesla. European government
bonds climbed on rate-cut expectations as data showed a downtrend in private-sector activity extended into a second month. UK private sector growth cooled in October to its weakest level in almost a year, PMI data showed.  China is pressuring its automakers
to pause expansion in the European Union due to the escalating trade conflict over electric vehicles.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are higher, with Nasdaq outperforming after Tesla posted its biggest quarterly profit in more than a year. Tesla climbed in early trading after the carmaker reported
surprisingly strong Q3 earnings as Cybertruck contributed to profit for the first time. Elon Musk offered an upbeat outlook for next year, driven by the rollout of more affordable models. Uber and Lyft shares fell on Musk’s aim to roll out ridesharing in Texas
and California in 2025. Investors are bracing for more results from US tech giants, with Alphabet, Amazon and Meta reporting next week. Meanwhile, Boeing factory workers rejected a new labor contract that would have increased their wages by 35% over four years.
Keurig Dr Pepper struck a deal to acquire energy-drink maker Ghost for more than $1B.  

Futures ahead of the data: E-Mini S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Russell 2000 +0.3%, DJI -0.15%. 

In pre-market trading, Tesla (TSLA) soars 13% after the carmaker reported surprisingly strong earnings. Elon Musk on Wednesday forecast vehicle sales would grow by
20-30% next year. Boeing (BA) slips 3% as factory workers rejected a new labor contract that would have increased their wages by 35% over four years. Harley-Davidson (HOG) drops 2% as motorcycle shipments fell in the latest quarter on lower overall demand.
IBM (IBM) declines 4% after reporting underwhelming revenue in the third quarter. Lam Research (LRCX) rises 6% after the semiconductor equipment maker reported better-than-expected 1Q results. Newmont shares (NEM) drops 5% after the gold miner reported 3Q
profit that missed amid higher costs. Seadrill (SDRL) surges 10% after Bloomberg reported the offshore drilling contractor is in talks to merge with rival Transocean. T-Mobile (TMUS) advances 2% after reporting more monthly mobile-phone and broadband subscribers
than analysts expected. United Parcel Service (UPS) jumps 7% after the company returned to sales and profit growth for the first time in nearly two years.

TSLA relative to the Consumer Discretionary ETF

European gauges rose, as upbeat earnings reports from a range of companies provided a boost to the market after three days of declines. About 10% of the entire Stoxx
600 index report today. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is holding gains as almost all sectors advanced with travel and leisure, and autos, leading gains. Unilever advanced after the consumer goods giant reported accelerating sales growth. Barclays shares touched
a nine-year high after profit beat estimates and it raised its full-year NII forecast. Hermès’s sales rose, defying broader luxury market woes. Renault bucked Europe’s auto slump thanks to new model demand. Abrdn Plc shares plunged the most in 14 months after
clients pulled money from its equities funds last quarter. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.7%, FTSE 100 +0.4%. Travel & Leisure +2.8%, Autos +1.9%, Personal Goods +1.6%. Banks -0.1%.

Shares in Asia fell, dragged down by Chinese stocks. Traders continue to assess Beijing’s commitment to delivering stimulus, with few details so far on its plans to
boost the economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2% to its lowest level in a month as technology shares underperformed after a few earnings reports. TSMC erased gains while Alibaba and Tencent declined. Korean memory maker SK Hynix advanced after posting
record quarterly profit, while Asian EV stocks were mixed after strong results from Tesla. Hang Seng Index -1.3%, Philippines -1.1%, CSI 300 -1.1%, Vietnam -1%, Indonesia -0.9%, Kospi -0.7%, Taiwan -0.6%, ASX 200 -0.1%, Topix -0.05%, Sensex -0.02%. Nikkei
225 +0.1%, Singapore +0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold gains in early US session, paring losses that pushed yields for several tenors to multi-month highs Wednesday. US yields are richer by 3bp-6bp across
the curve led by long end, leaving 2s10s spread ~2bp flatter on the day. The 10-year yield is down about 5bp at 4.19% near session low.  US session includes weekly jobless claims and S&P Global PMIs, following mixed European PMI readings.

METALS: 

Gold is higher, recovering some of the loss from its biggest drop in 11 weeks, after hitting an all-time high on Wednesday. Palladium surged more than 7% after the
US asked the Group of Seven allies to consider sanctions on Russian exports of the metal.  The Biden administration floated the potential restrictions during a meeting of G-7 finance officials in Washington this week as it mulls fresh ways to squeeze President
Putin’s war efforts. Spot gold +0.8%, Silver +1.1%, Copper +0.4%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices are slightly higher, taking back some losses from the previous session following an unexpected increase in US crude inventories, as investors continued
to await a retaliatory Israeli strike on Iran.  Saudi Arabia’s revenue from oil exports has slumped to the lowest in more than three years as sluggish demand growth weighs. WTI +0.4%, Brent +0.3%, US Nat Gas +3%, RBOB +0.1%.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the yen is paring some of this weeks 2% decline, after Japan’s Finance Minister said he’s watching currency moves with a stronger sense of urgency.
A slightly better-than-expected reading in Germany’s purchasing managers’ index gave the euro a slight lift. A weaker than anticipated euro zone-wide PMI limited gains, however. The pound rose after a newspaper report said that finance minister Rachel Reeves
was set to give herself a lot more room for borrowing in next week’s budget. Norwegian krone leads G-10 gains as oil prices rebounded. US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.4%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY +0.5%, AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD +0.4%, USDNOK -0.55%.

Spot Bitcoin +1%, Spot Ethereum +0.6%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Hanmi Financial (HAFC) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $25.50
• NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $22
• Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corp (PGC) US Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $35
• PROG Holdings (PRG) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $48
• Steris (STE) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $260
• Tesla (TSLA) Raised to Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $276
• Up Fintech Holding (TIGR) ADRs Raised to Buy at China Renaissance
• Downgrades
• ATI Inc (ATI) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Autohome (ATHM) ADRs Cut to Hold at CLSA; PT $29.80
• Avery Dennison (AVY) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $210
• Constellium SE (CSTM) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
• Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $35
• Helix Energy (HLX) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Icon (ICLR) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $340
• Lufax (LU) ADRs Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $3.20
• Lumos Pharma (LUMO) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $4.25
• MAG Silver (MAG CN) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT C$24.20
• Outfront Media (OUT) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Seres (MCRB) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Cut to Reduce at Veritas Investment Research Co
• Stock Yards Bancorp (SYBT) Cut to Market Perform at Hovde Group; PT $68
• Veritex Holdings (VBTX) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $30
• Verizon (VZ) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• WillScot Holdings Corp (WSC) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $42
• Initiations
• Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) Rated New Neutral at HC Wainwright
• Bit Digital (BTBT) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $6
• California Resources (CRC) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $64
• Canadian National (CNR CN) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT C$174.40
• Gen Digital (GEN) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $35
• Global Blue Group Holding (GB) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer
• Keros Therapeutics (KROS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) Rated New Overweight at Guotai Junan Sec
• Primo Water (PRMW CN) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Q32 Bio Inc (QTTB) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $90
• Sempra (SRE) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $98
• Sirius XM (SIRI) Resumed Underperform at BofA; PT $23
• Volatus Aerospace Inc (FLT CN) Rated New Buy at PI Financial
• WidePoint (WYY) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $7

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke