Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET PPI, Jobless Claims; 9:00ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 3:00ET Fed Chair Powell speaks;
4:45ET Fed’s Williams speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Bitcoin is the 7th largest asset in the world, worth over $1.8 TRILLION
• US temporary help services jobs declined by 145,800 over the last 12 months, lowest since Oct 2020
• There are a record 23,470,000 US government workers
  
• Pennsylvania’s Senate race will go to a recount due to the small margin in votes
• FBI raids Polymarket CEO’s home; the gambling website correctly called the 2024 presidential election

World stocks edged higher lifted by a bullish outlook from chip equipment maker ASML Holding NV and expectations that interest rates will fall again in December.
With today’s data showing the euro-area economy expanded 0.9% on an annual basis — in line with forecasts — markets are banking on a rate cut next month from the European Central Bank. In the US too, yesterday’s inflation print has kept alive hopes of a potential
Federal Reserve cut in mid-December. Investors are still watching for further measures from Chinese authorities to boost the world’s second largest economy, while monitoring President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet appointments. Emerging-market stocks fell for
the fifth day, the longest consecutive run of declines in almost four months.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures inch higher as investors wait to see if upcoming price data and a speech from Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell will boost expectations for a December interest-rate
cut. Confirmation of a Republican election clean sweep also provided support. Disney shares popped 6% after posting fiscal fourth-quarter sales and profit that beat estimates and forecast earnings growth for the next three years, a rare event for a company
that historically hasn’t made long-range profit projections. Traders are now awaiting US producer price data which is expected to show headline and core producer prices rose year-over-year in October. Several Fed members speak today including Chair Jerome
Powell on the economy, after several officials recently expressed their doubts over how far the central bank will need to lower interest rates.  

Futures ahead of the data: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.01%, Russell 2000 +0.5%, DJI +0.25%. 

In pre-market trading, Advance Auto (AAP) drops 7% after posting net sales for the quarter that missed estimates. The company plans to close about 500 stores. Beazer Homes (BZH) jumps
5% after the homebuilder reported quarterly revenue that beat. Capri Holdings (CPRI) falls 5% and Tapestry (TPR) gains 6% after the pair ended an $8.5 billion plan to merge following a US court order freezing the deal due to antitrust regulators’ objections.
Cisco (CSCO) fell 0.8% after it gave a tepid annual forecast even as quarterly results beat. CNH Industrial (CNH) rises 4% after David Einhorn revealed a new position in the farm equipment company. Harrow (HROW) sinks 21% after the eye-care pharmaceutical
company reported revenue and core earnings that disappointed. Ibotta (IBTA) drops 22% after the cash-back mobile app company provided a fourth-quarter outlook that trails analyst estimates. Sonos (SONO) rises 5% as the home speaker company reported a largely
in-line quarter. Zeta (ZETA) rises 9% after the software company announced a $100 million share buyback.

S&P500 Growth relative to Value: bumping against key .618 retracement.

The expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has outperformed XLK by 13% since Oct. 23^rd.

Nvidia has outperformed the SOXX semiconductor ETF by roughly 170% this year.

European gauges rose as bullish outlooks by both Siemens AG and ASML NV helped the market recoup some of the losses triggered by Donald Trump’s US election. The Stoxx
600 index climbed after ASML reaffirmed its bullish long-term revenue outlook on AI-driven demand, boosting its shares by more than 5%. Siemens AG was another gainer, seeing shares hit record highs as grid technology demand helped it increase targets. Shares
in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA soared after Giorgia Meloni’s government sold a minority stake to rival Banco BPM SpA. The Stoxx 600 is trailing the S&P 500 this year by the most in at least 24 years in dollar terms. Stoxx 600 +0.8%, DAX +1.3%, CAC
+1%, FTSE 100 +0.4%. Technology +2.2%, Telecom +1.6%, Autos +1.3%. All sectors are in the green.

Shares in Asia fell, weighed by selling in Chinese shares and the region’s tech companies. The MSCI Asia Pacific index declined 0.6%, with Chinese internet companies
Alibaba Group and Meituan among the biggest laggards. Shares closed lower in mainland China and Hong Kong, where the market was open despite typhoon warnings. Tencent Holdings’ shares fell 0.1% despite a 47% surge in quarterly profit and describing tentative
signs of a Chinese economic bounce-back. In South Korea, SK Hynix’s shares slid 5.4%, falling for a fourth consecutive session, amid continued concerns that China’s advances in memory chips and Samsung’s potential deal with Nvidia will weigh on the company’s
business. The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped as much as 3.5%, taking its loss from a high in October to 20%. Philippines -2.3%, Hang Seng Index -2%, CSI 300 -1.7%, Indonesia -1.3%, Vietnam -1.1%, Taiwan -0.6%, Topix -0.3%, Sensex -0.1%. ASX 200 +0.4%, Singapore
+0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are marginally richer across the curve with futures pushing higher into the early US session, unwinding losses seen at the start of Asia. The curve is
slightly flatter but holding Wednesday’s sharp steepening move, which saw the biggest one-day widening move in the 5s30s spread so far this year. US 10-year yields trade around 4.44%, while the 2-year yield is flat at 4.275%. Fed Chair Powell is set to speak
on the economic outlook. A text release at 3:00ET and a Q&A session is expected.

METALS: 

Gold prices dropped for the fifth consecutive day, driven by a surge in the dollar to a two-year high following President-elect Donald Trump’s win, which is expected
to boost economic growth and corporate profits. The hawkish repricing of US rates after Trump’s victory is keeping the dollar and yields underpinned, and dollar-denominated gold undermined, according to StoneX.  Spot gold -0.8%, Silver -1.2%, Copper -1.4%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices edged higher, consolidating after feeling pressure from continued gains for the US dollar and shaking off a report from the IEA forecasting a crude glut
next year. Global oil markets face a huge surplus of more than 1 million barrels a day next year as Chinese demand continues to falter, cushioning prices against turmoil in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency said. Supplies from producers such
as the US and Canada will surge by 1.5 million b/d.  Oil consumption in China has contracted for six straight months through September and will grow this year at just 10% of the rate seen in 2023, the IEA said in a monthly report today. Crude inventories at
Cushing declined by 1.9 million barrels last week, the API reported. That would be the biggest decline in eight weeks if confirmed by the EIA today. WTI +0.6%, Brent +0.6%, US Nat Gas -0.3%, RBOB +0.2%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar extended its rally into a fifth day to hold near two-year highs. The likelihood of so-called America-First policies has boosted the
dollar more than 3% since the election. The yen weakens to the 156-handle, close to levels when Japanese authorities last intervened to prop up the currency. The euro prints a fresh one-year low, while MSCI’s index for emerging market currencies fell for a
fifth day. Cable is set for seventh weekly drop, the longest losing streak in a decade. US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.4%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY +0.25%, AUDUSD -0.25%, NZDUSD -0.2%, USDCHF +0.4%.

Spot Bitcoin +2.7%, Spot Ethereum +1%. The value of the global cryptocurrency market has topped $3 trillion. Bitcoin is the 7th largest asset in the world, worth
over $1.8T.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• American Air (AAL) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $16
• AutoCanada (ACQ CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$21
• BrightSpire Capital Inc (BRSP) Raised to Buy at JonesTrading; PT $7.25
• BXP Inc (BXP) Raised to Buy at Compass Point; PT $88
• Campbell Soup (CPB) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Cava Group (CAVA) Raised to Buy at CFRA; PT $200
• Douglas Emmett (DEI) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $21
• Doximity (DOCS) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $53
• Inseego (INSG) Raised to Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $15
• Prudential Financial (PRU) Raised to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $140
• Suncor (SU CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$66
• Unum (UNM) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $84
• Downgrades
• Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $22
• Ayr Wellness (AYR/A CN) Cut to Underperform at ATB Capital; PT C$1.50
• Blink Charging (BLNK) Cut to Neutral at UBS
• Boxlight (BOXL) Cut to Neutral at Alliance Global Partners
• Ess Tech (GWH) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $9
• Innoviz Technologies (INVZ) Cut to Neutral at Cantor
• Jack in the Box (JACK) Cut to Neutral at Northcoast
• Jackson Financial (JXN) Cut to Underperform at Evercore ISI; PT $95
• Kilroy (KRC) Cut to Sector Underperform at Scotiabank; PT $38
• Kronos Bio (KRON) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
• Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $1
• Liberty Broadband (LBRDA) Cut to Neutral at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
• Nubank (NU) Cut to Market Perform at Itau BBA; PT $15
• Papa John’s (PZZA) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Plug Power (PLUG) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Realty Income (O) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $60
• Sun Communities (SUI) Cut to Neutral at UBS
• Target Hospitality (TH) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Televisa (TLEVICPO MM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Zeta (ZETA) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Initiations
• Achieve Life Sciences (ACHV) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; PT $12
• Adial Pharmaceuticals (ADIL) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; PT $8
• Amgen (AMGN) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $335
• Atour Lifestyle (ATAT) ADRs Rated New Buy at 86Research; PT $38
• Biogen (BIIB) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $190
• Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $126
• Carlisle (CSL) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $460
• Datadog (DDOG) Rated New Buy at CMB International; PT $154.30
• Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals (EPRX CN) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw
• Fabrinet (FN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $292
• Gilead (GILD) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $125
• HubSpot (HUBS) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Maravai (MRVI) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Omeros (OMER) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; PT $9
• PROCEPT BioRobotics (PRCT) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $95
• Regeneron (REGN) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $895
• Rockwell Medical (RMTI) Reinstated Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; PT $5
• Turning Point Brands (TPB) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $65
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $575

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke