Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Trade Balance, Jobless Claims; 12:15ET Fed’s Barkin speaks

Highlights and News:  

• UKRAINE WON’T COMPROMISE ON ITS TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY: SYBIHA
• Macron Begins Search for New French Premier as Barnier Government Falls
• Nvidia signs AI cooperation agreement with Vietnamese government
  
• OPEC+ to Delay Oil Output Hike by 3 Months, From April Until Sept. 2026: Delegate
  
• Bitcoin Tops $102,000 on Trump’s SEC Pick
  
• Biden is considering pardoning Dr. Anthony Fauci, according to Politico
  

Global stocks edge higher as French assets rebounded slightly as investors debated the implications of the ousting of Michel Barnier’s government.  President Macron
now needs to find another premier who can pass a budget for 2025 through the deeply divided parliament. German factory orders dropped less than expected in October, raising the prospect that the country’s multi-year manufacturing recession is bottoming out. 
Sweden’s core inflation rate rose in November to its highest level in six months after the Riksbank decided to increase the pace of interest-rate cuts to support the ailing economy.     

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are little changed after another record close on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 making its 56th all-time high of the year. Investor focus turns to the employment report
tomorrow. US executives turned sharply optimistic after Donald Trump’s presidential win, with 67% now confident about the economy, up from 26% in August, a survey showed.

In pre-market trading, AeroVironment (AVAV) falls 8% after the drone maker reported 2Q adjusted EPS that disappointed amid higher R&D spending. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) tumbles
13% after the apparel retailer lowered its full-year comparable sales forecast. ChargePoint (CHPT) jumps 11% after the electric-vehicle charging company reported third-quarter revenue that beat average expectations. Fiserv (FI) drops 9% after President-elect
Donald Trump tapped the fintech’s CEO Frank Bisignano to serve as the Commissioner of the Social Security Administration. Five Below (FIVE) jumps 14% after the discount retailer boosted its full-year net sales guidance and named former Forever 21 head Winnie
Park as CEO. Nano-X Imaging (NNOX) rises 11% after the medical imaging technology company said it received FDA clearance for its Nanox.ARC x-ray system. NCino (NCNO) declines 19% after the banking software maker’s fourth-quarter revenue forecast fell short
of estimates. Riot Platforms (RIOT) rises 6% along with other cryptocurrency-exposed stocks. SentinelOne (S) falls 15% after the cybersecurity software company posted 3Q profit that fell short of estimates. Synopsys (SNPS) declines 8% after the maker of electronic
design automation software provider a weaker-than-expected forecast.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.05%, Russell 2000 -0.05%, DJI -0.05%. 

European gauges are mostly higher in choppy trading. French stocks gained ahead of an address by Emmanuel Macron at 2 p.m. ET, as the weakened president looks for a
new PM. The Stoxx 600 reverses some of its early gains to trade slightly higher. Banks and Travel shares outperform while real estate and industrials lag. Equinor ASA and Shell Plc are to combine their UK offshore oil and gas assets to form a new company,
which will be the UK North Sea’s biggest independent producer. Future Plc shares jumped as its revenues for the full year met estimates and Aurubis AG also gained after posting robust full-year numbers. Meanwhile, Safran SA was among the worst performers on
the European benchmark after reporting disappointing targets. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX +0.3%, CAC +0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.1%. Banks +1.7%, Travel & Leisure +1.2%, Autos +0.8%, Technology +0.7%. Real Estate -0.5%, Industrials -0.4%, Healthcare -0.4%.

Shares in Asia were broadly mixed as technology shares advanced while Korean stock losses extended amid a political turmoil. The MSCI Asia Pacific index was little
changed. Korean equities retreated, with the country’s ruling party looking to prevent President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment by voting against a motion to initiate proceedings that may take place Saturday. South Korea’s main opposition leader said ousting
President Yoon Suk Yeol may be difficult due to lack of support from the ruling party. Shares in Hong Kong declined, while Chinese equities snapped a four-day winning streak. Singapore’s Straits Times Index hit a record high as renewed optimism around the
city-state’s banks gave a lift to the wider market. Indian shares rallied ahead of an interest rate decision on Friday.  Vietnam +2.2%, Sensex +1%, Singapore +0.6%, Nikkei 225 +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.15%, Taiwan +0.05%. Indonesia -0.2%, CSI 300 -0.2%, Philippines
-0.6%, Kospi -0.9%, Hang Seng Index -0.9%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields edged higher as traders turned focus to Friday’s US payrolls release. US 10-year is +3bp on the day at around 4.210%, while 2s10s curve is -0.05bp.
Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the US economy yesterday did little to alter expectations implied by market pricing that the Fed will cut rates again when it meets later this month. The Fed’s Mary Daly said there’s no sense of urgency to lower interest rates,
emphasizing officials can “carefully calibrate” policy.   French bonds rose, trimming the extra yield investors demand to hold the debt over safer German peers. despite the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government. 

METALS: 

Gold steadied as the market digested remarks from the head of the Federal Reserve, before data that may influence the central bank’s next interest-rate decision.
US nonfarm payroll figures due Friday are the next major data point before policymakers meet on Dec. 17-18. Gold may push higher next year, possibly challenging the $3,000 mark, as the Fed cuts rates and central banks add bullion to reserves, Macquarie said.
Spot gold +0.1%, Silver +0.2%, Copper +0.1%.

ENERGY:   

OPEC+ delayed the revival of its oil production by three months, a delegate said, the third time it’s deferred the move while crude prices struggle amid a looming
surplus. The group pushed back the series of supply increases, which had been due to begin with a hike of 180,000 barrels a day in January. It will instead start in April and unwind the cuts at a slower pace than previously planned, finishing the process in
September 2026, according to the delegate. The decision to still add some barrels in the first half of next year was initially taken as mildly bearish, with prices now recouping session lows. WTI +0.2%, Brent +0.1%, US Nat Gas +1.3%, RBOB ~flat.

CURRENCIES: 

Currency markets are relatively muted with the dollar inching lower as traders turned focus to Friday’s US payrolls release. The yen edges higher after Bank of Japan’s
most dovish board member, Toyoaki Nakamura, didn’t rule out the possibility of a rate hike this month, saying that it’s important to analyze the data first. The yen gained against the dollar following Nakamura’s comments, as traders read his views as potentially
strengthening the case for another rate hike this month. The euro rises while Emmanuel Macron needs to find a premier who can pass a 2025 budget through a deeply divided parliament; a sale of French debt skewed toward longer maturities received solid demand
from investors.  US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD+0.25 %, USDJPY -0.15%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD +0.2%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.2%.  

Spot Bitcoin +5%, Spot Ethereum +2.2%. President-elect Donald Trump’s pick of a crypto proponent to be the next head of the US securities regulator lifted Bitcoin to
$100,000 for the first time as traders warmed to the prospect of relaxed regulations. The crypto market overall has jumped by roughly $1.3 trillion since Trump’s election victory on Nov. 5.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Bruker Corp (BRKR) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $60
• Conoco (COP) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $123
• Diageo (DGE LN) ADRs Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $141
• Exact Sciences (EXAS) Raised to Buy at CFRA
• Gates Industrial (GTES) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $25
• Gibson Energy (GEI CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$28
• HP Enterprise (HPE) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $28
• Illinois Tool (ITW) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $270
• Magna Intl (MG CN) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Mobileye (MBLY) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe
• Okta (OKTA) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein
• Raised to Buy at President Capital Management; PT $105
• Rockwell Automation (ROK) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $290
• Downgrades
• AbbVie (ABBV) Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $180
• Ally Financial (ALLY) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• American Eagle (AEO) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $23
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
• Chewy (CHWY) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $30
• CNX Resources (CNX) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
• Devon (DVN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $43
• Dollarama (DOL CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$149
• EQB Inc (EQB CN) Cut to Market Perform at Cormark Securities; PT C$110
• Ford (F) Cut to Underperform at Wolfe
• Grab Holdings (GRAB) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $5.50
• Liberty Formula One (FWONA) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Maravai (MRVI) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $4.25
• Nautilus Biotechnology (NAUT) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $1.75
• nCino (NCNO) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $38
• Otis Worldwide (OTIS) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $94
• Principal Financial (PFG) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $80
• Prosperity Banc (PB) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Relmada Therapeutics (RLMD) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $1
• Roper (ROP) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $569
• Sabra Health (SBRA) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $20
• Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $105
• SM Energy (SM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Star Bulk (SBLK) Cut to Hold at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $18.50
• Veracyte (VCYT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $37
• Initiations
• Assurant (AIZ) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $251
• Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $13
• Brinker (EAT) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $150
• Brookfield Asset Management (BAM CN) Rated New Restricted at Macquarie
• Brown & Brown (BRO) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $134
• CervoMed Inc (CRVO) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $42
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $56
• Choice Hotels (CHH) Reinstated Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $133
• Coursera (COUR) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $9
• Darden (DRI) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $183
• Disney (DIS) Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT $120
• DoubleVerify (DV) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $24
• Duolingo (DUOL) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $425
• Energy Recovery (ERII) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities
• GE Vernova (GEV) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $400
• Hanover (THG) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Integral Ad Science (IAS) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank
• Janux Therapeutics (JANX) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research
• Kinsale Capital (KNSL) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $593
• Magnite Inc (MGNI) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $22
• PubMatic (PUBM) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $17
• Rezolve AI (RZLV) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $5
• Ryan Specialty (RYAN) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $90
• Selective Insurance (SIGI) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Talos Energy (TALO) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $12
• TAT Technologies (TATT) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $30
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $213
• Trade Desk (TTD) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $133
• Udemy (UDMY) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $10
• VF Corp (VFC) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $20
• Viant (DSP) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $27
• W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Wyndham Hotels (WH) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $103
• Y-mAbs (YMAB) Rated New Buy at Brookline Capital; PT $17

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke