Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30 a.m.: US Initial Jobless Claims

US JOBLESS CLAIMS 219,000 IN DEC. 21 WEEK; EST. 223K

Happy holiday season, everyone!  Hope all had a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Highlights and News:  

• Japan Airlines was forced to halt ticket sales and delay flights due to a cyberattack, with the issue now resolved
• Alibaba, E-Mart to Create $4 Billion E-Commerce JV in Korea
• US Continuing Claims Rise to Highest in More Than Three Years

Global stocks traded in tight ranges after a gauge of Asian stocks recorded its longest winning streak since September, while US equity futures were slightly lower.
Most of Europe was closed for Boxing Day. Initial jobless claims and a 7-year note auction headline Thursday’s economic data, with US initial jobless claims expected to rise to 223,000 from 220,000. US continuing claims increased to 1.91 million in the week
ending Dec. 14, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Initial claims, meanwhile, decreased to 219,000 in the week ending Dec. 21.US equities recently rebounded over three sessions despite earlier losses triggered by the Fed’s hawkish stance,
as investors anticipate a “Santa Claus Rally.” The S&P 500 is poised for its largest relative gain against global peers since 1997, driven by optimism around AI and the U.S. economy, while markets await details on Trump’s tax and trade policies ahead of his
Jan. 20 inauguration.

EQUITIES:  

US stock futures were slightly lower early Thursday, reflecting a quiet session after the Christmas holiday. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures all dropped
by around 0.3% to 0.4%. Notable movers include Alibaba, which announced a merger with E-Mart’s e-commerce platform in South Korea, and Rapt Therapeutics, up 0.6% following an upgrade. Apple’s price target was raised to $325, citing an upcoming AI-driven iPhone
cycle. Crypto-related stocks fell as Bitcoin retreated. Additionally, Progressive Corp. received an upgrade to “outperform” from Raymond James due to its strong growth history. 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.4%, DJI -0.3%.

In Europe, Germany, France, London, Spain and Switzerland are among the markets closed for the Boxing Day holiday.

Asian stocks advanced, heading for their longest winning streak since September, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 0.4% in light trading, Japanese equities led the
gains as Toyota surged on plans to boost its return on equity to 20%. Chinese shares fluctuated, South Korean stocks fell, and Australian and Hong Kong markets were closed. Regional performance has lagged global peers amid concerns over U.S. tariffs, a strong
dollar, and unclear Chinese stimulus, though Beijing signaled new support measures. Japan’s Topix rose 1.2%, buoyed by a weak yen, while sector-specific gains were seen in lens makers, life insurers, and data-related Chinese stocks. Despite challenges, analysts
see value in underperforming markets like Korea and Indonesia, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index poised for a second year of gains. Topix +1.0%, Nikkei +1.12%, China’s CSI 300 +0.05%; Kospi -0.4%

FIXED INCOME: 
 

U.S. Treasuries faced pressure as trading resumed after the holiday, with attention on the final coupon auction of the year—a $44 billion 7-year note sale at 1 p.m.
Demand for 2- and 5-year notes earlier in the week halted a selloff that had pushed 5- to 30-year yields to multi-month highs. Yields rose 2-4 basis points within Tuesday’s ranges, steepening the curve, with the 7-year note’s WI yield at 4.555%, its highest
since May. The economic calendar is light, featuring only weekly jobless claims, while no new corporate bond issuance or Fed speeches are expected until January.

METALS: 

Gold prices rose in holiday-thinned trading, with markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s 2025 rate outlook and incoming Trump administration tariff policies. Investors
await U.S. jobless claims data, which could influence the dollar and gold prices if higher-than-expected claims are reported. Gold +0.5%, Silver +0.5%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil edged higher in light holiday trading, with Brent near $74 a barrel, supported by China’s fiscal stimulus measures and a U.S. industry report indicating a fifth
consecutive weekly drop in crude inventories. China’s move to allow local officials greater flexibility with government bond proceeds boosted sentiment, while U.S. commercial crude stockpiles fell by 3.2 million barrels, according to the American Petroleum
Institute. Analysts noted cautious buying amid expectations of potential policy moves in China and lingering uncertainty over global supply as OPEC+ plans to ease curbs gradually. Despite the gains, crude remains on track for a modest annual decline. WTI +0.6%,
Brent +0.5%, Nat Gas -3.2%.

CURRENCIES: 

 In currency markets, the US dollar index was slightly lower, hovering near a two-year high against a basket of currencies, on track for a monthly gain exceeding
2%. The euro edged up, while the British pound fell to 1.2522. The Japanese yen saw a slight weakening, with USD/JPY rising to 157.6130. Japan plans to raise government bond sales to ¥172.3 trillion ($1.1 trillion) next fiscal year, marking the first increase
in four years, though JGB yields were largely unchanged, tracking higher U.S. yields. US$ Index -0.04%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.01%, USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD -0.1%, USDCHF +0.1%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Brinker (EAT) Raised to Buy at Argus; PT $150
• Despegar.com (DESP) Raised to Hold at TD Cowen
• Progressive (PGR) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $305
• RAPT Therapeutics (RAPT) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $10
• Downgrades
• Brookline Bancorp (BRKL) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $14.50
• Hagerty (HGTY) Cut to Underperform at Raymond James
• NeueHealth Inc (NEUE) Cut to Hold at Nephron Research; PT $7
• Initiations
• Avita Medical (RCEL) Rated New Buy at D. Boral Capital LLC; PT $25
• Federal Signal (FSS) Reinstated Outperform at Raymond James; PT $110
• Hesai Group (HSAI) ADRs Rated New Buy at CMB International; PT $16.30
• Mereo Biopharma (MREO) ADRs Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital
• Palvella Therapeutics In (PVLA) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $38
• Regal Rexnord (RRX) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $201
• Salesforce Inc (CRM) Rated New Outperform at GuoSen
• ServiceNow (NOW) Rated New Outperform at GuoSen
• Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $1,200
• Talen Energy Corp (TLN) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

Dan Forsythe