Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Trade Balance; 10:00ET JOLTS, ISM Services; 11:00ET Trump briefing at Mar-a-Lago;
1:00ET 10yr note auction

Highlights and News:  

• US blacklisted Tencent and other companies
  
• Trump weighs executive order protecting gas stoves
• Nippon Steel CEO Will Fight Biden’s Blocked US Steel Deal
  
• Meta ends fact-checking program as Zuckerberg vows to restore free expression on Facebook, Instagram
• NVDA hits a new all-time high of $153.58 in premarket trade, now worth over $3.7 TRILLION

Global stocks edge higher, a day after President-elect Donald Trump took to social media to deny a report that he might moderate plans for across-the-board tariffs
when he retakes the White House. The US blacklisted Tencent Holdings and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. for alleged links to the Chinese military, targeting the world’s biggest gaming publisher and top electric-vehicle battery maker in a surprise move
weeks before Trump takes office. France’s Socialist Party said today that it is willing to compromise on the budget, opening a narrow path for Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s new government to avoid collapse in its efforts to repair public finances. Euro-area
inflation accelerated last month, as data showed consumer prices in December rose 2.4% from a year ago, matching estimates and supporting the European Central Bank’s gradual approach to reducing interest rates. The increase was largely driven by energy costs.
French inflation accelerated to 1.8% in December, slightly less than expected. Swiss inflation slowed.     

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures fluctuated as caution set in ahead of a set of economic data releases and as investors braced for any insights into the incoming Trump administration’s policies. Trump
has a briefing set for 11:00ET at Mar-a-Lago. The key non-farm payrolls figure is also due later in the week and any signs of continued resilience in the economy is likely to push back expectations on the pace of the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing cycle
this year. Nvidia shares rise in premarket trading after announcing a raft of new chips, software and services, aiming to stay at the forefront of artificial intelligence computing. The chipmaker also announced partnerships with Toyota and Uber, showcasing
its vision for AI-powered robots and self-driving vehicles. It is a four-day trading week, with the NYSE closed on Thursday in honor of the late former President Jimmy Carter.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.05%, Russell 2000 +0.15%, DJI +0.25%.

In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) rises 2% after CEO Huang announced a raft of new chips. Uber (UBER) rises 2% after the ride-hailing company said it is teaming
up with Nvidia in order to accelerate the development of autonomous driving technology. Apple (AAPL) slips 1% as MoffettNathanson downgrades the iPhone maker, citing high valuation, antitrust overhang and weakening position in China. Arbe Robotics (ARBE) jumps
11% after the robotics systems maker announced a collaboration with Nvidia to enhance radar-based free space mapping. Aurora Innovation (AUR) soars 43% as the self-driving technology company partners with Continental and Nvidia to deploy driverless trucks
at scale. Micron (MU) rises 3% after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company is providing memory chips for its new GPUs. Moderna (MRNA) gains 3%, along with other vaccine developers, as seasonal flu cases across the country continue to increase. Tesla (TSLA)
slips 1% after BofA stepped away from its bullish rating, citing valuation and execution risks.

SPX continues to hold the 1x extension target.

European gauges shake off early weakness, led by gains in financial services, retail and real estate. UK’s Next (NXT.L) advanced over 3%, after the clothing retailer
lifted its annual profit outlook for the fourth time in six months. Fin services were boosted by a 6% rise in Partners Group (PGHN.S) after UBS upgraded its rating on the buyout firm to “buy”. Kion Group gained over 9% after the German supply-chain solutions
company said it was collaborating with Nvidia and Accenture to optimize supply chains with AI-powered robots. Deutsche Bank strategists raised European equity to overweight, citing catalysts including improving macro data, lower rates, improving earnings and
potential upside surprises from China. Stoxx 600 +0.2%, DAX +0.4%, CAC +0.7%, FTSE 100 -0.3%. Financial Services +1%, Real Estate +1%, Retail +0.9%, Technology +0.7%. Healthcare -0.2%, Basic Resources -0.1%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher, boosted by the technology sector as Nvidia chief Jensen Huang’s speech yesterday fueled optimism in AI. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
rose 0.6%, with chip stocks TSMC and Tokyo Electron among the biggest contributors. Japan led gains in the region while Hong Kong shares fell after the US included internet giant Tencent and EV battery maker CATL in its blacklist of companies with alleged
links to the Chinese military. Chinese logistics stocks advanced after the nation’s top economic planner called for the establishment of a nationwide unified market. Nikkei 225 +2%, Thailand +1.3%, CSI 300 +0.7%, Taiwan +0.4%, ASX 200 +0.3%, Sensex +0.3%,
Vietnam +0.05%. Hang Seng Index -1.2%, Philippines -1.2%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yield roughly flat around 4.63% and a slightly steeper curve. Front-end yields richer by around 1bp and long-end yields slightly
cheaper. German yield curve has more pronounced steepening move following euro-area inflation figures for December and bond sales by Germany and Austria. Gilts lag after soft demand for a UK 30-year auction. Focal points of US session include November JOLTS
job openings, December ISM services index and 10-year note auction that may draw highest yield since 2007. 

METALS: 

Gold edged higher on dollar weakness as traders weighed risks to global trade after President-elect Donald Trump denied a report he might moderate plans for across-the-board
tariffs. Bullion traded above $2,650 an ounce, after ending lower in the previous two sessions. Earlier today, China’s central bank released figures showing it expanded its gold reserves for a second month in December, signaling renewed appetite after temporarily
pausing purchases last year. Goldman Sachs Group is pushing back a target for gold hitting $3,000 to mid-2026 on expectations for fewer Federal Reserve cuts. Spot gold +0.6%, Silver +1%, Copper +0.6%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices climbed, reversing earlier declines, as fears of tighter Russian and Iranian supply due to escalating Western sanctions lent support. Money managers are
turning bullish on oil, with hedge funds boosting long positions on WTI by 41% in three weeks. Russian data showed it cut December oil output below the OPEC+ target. In China, Shandong Port Group issued a notice on Monday banning US sanctioned oil vessels
from its network of ports, potentially restricting blacklisted vessels from major energy terminals on China’s east coast. Meanwhile, cold weather in the US and Europe has boosted heating oil demand, providing further support for prices. WTI +0.6%, Brent +0.8%,
US Nat Gas -1.9%, RBOB +0.1%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is lower for a third day as traders keep a close eye on trade tensions after US President-elect Trump denied a report that he might
moderate plans for across-the-board tariffs. The euro is headed for its best three-day run in more than a year as investors kept unwinding short exposure in both spot and options markets.  The yen hovers around its weakest since July, even after Finance Minister
Kato repeats the familiar intervention warning. Barclays sees the BOJ hiking rates in March and October this year, compared with its previous forecast of January and July, due to uncertainty surrounding domestic and overseas politics. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD
+0.1%, EURUSD +0.01%, USDJPY+0.05 %, AUDUSD +0.5%, NZDUSD +0.5%, USDCHF +0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.8%, Spot Ethereum -1%.  Backpack Exchange, a crypto trading platform founded by one-time employees of FTX and Alameda Research, acquired FTX EU. Backpack
plans to return $55 million in customer funds.  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Acadia Health (ACHC) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $70
• Advanced Energy (AEIS) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $145
• Alaska Air (ALK) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna; PT $95
• American Water (AWK) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $129
• Atlassian (TEAM) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $300
• Autoliv (ALV) Raised to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $109
• Bank of America (BAC) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $53
• Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $50
• California Water (CWT) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $52
• Canadian National (CNR CN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT C$179
• Cardinal Health (CAH) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $140
• Carvana (CVNA) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $280
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer
• Clorox (CLX) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $157
• Cousins Properties (CUZ) Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities
• Disney (DIS) Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT $147
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $70
• Equinor (EQNR NO) ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $30.90
• Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX CN) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
• Instil Bio (TIL) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $52
• Labcorp (LH) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $265
• LTC Properties (LTC) Raised to Market Outperform at JMP; PT $40
• Lululemon (LULU) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $460
• P10 (PX) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $15
• Principal Financial (PFG) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $92
• Robinhood (HOOD) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $43
• Royal Gold (RGLD) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $178
• Sabra Health (SBRA) Raised to Market Outperform at JMP; PT $20
• Shake Shack (SHAK) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $159
• Shell (SHEL LN) ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $79.80
• Snowflake (SNOW) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $200
• Sunrun (RUN) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $16
• Truist Financial (TFC) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $50
• Ultrapar (UGPA3 BZ) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
• Vornado Realty (VNO) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $48
• XPO Inc (XPO) Raised to Buy at CFRA
• Zions (ZION) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $71
• Zoom Communications Inc (ZM) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
• Downgrades
• American States Water (AWR) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $77
• Apple (AAPL) Cut to Sell at MoffettNathanson LLC; PT $188
• Aritzia (ATZ CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$58
• BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer
• Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $13
• Bridge Investment Group (BRDG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $10
• Cboe (CBOE) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $174
• Comerica (CMA) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $71
• Datadog (DDOG) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $150
• Dentsply (XRAY) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $20
• Dine Brands (DIN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $32
• Dow (DOW) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
• Eni (ENI IM) ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $31.60
• Essential Utilities (WTRG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $39
• Excelerate Energy (EE) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $31
• Federated Hermes (FHI) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $42
• Forge Global (FRGE) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
• Inari Medical (NARI) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $80
• Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $80
• Kilroy (KRC) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $43
• Kraft Heinz (KHC) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $35
• LyondellBasell (LYB) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $95
• Marti Technologies (MRT) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $3
• Mondelez (MDLZ) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $61
• NIO Inc. (NIO) ADRs Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $4.50
• Old Dominion (ODFL) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $195
• Playa Hotels (PLYA) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $13
• Quaker Houghton (KWR) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $170
• Ready Capital (RC) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $10
• RingCentral (RNG) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $30
• Ross Stores (ROST) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $165
• Sabre (SABR) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $4
• Saia (SAIA) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $530
• Tesla (TSLA) Cut to Neutral at BofA
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Tyler Tech (TYL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $615
• Unum (UNM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $79
• Victory Capital (VCTR) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $60
• XPO Inc (XPO) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $155
• ZoomInfo (ZI) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $11
• Initiations
• Ally Financial (ALLY) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $42
• American Express (AXP) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $350
• Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $15
• Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Rated New Overweight at Barclays
• AptarGroup (ATR) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $200
• AudioEye (AEYE) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $25
• Bank of America (BAC) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $52
• BNY Mellon (BK) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $91
• Brazil Potash (GRO) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $17
• Capital One (COF) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $229
• Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) ADRs Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• CG Oncology (CGON) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Citigroup (C) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $85
• Citizens Financial (CFG) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $49
• Coca-Cola (KO) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $74
• Comerica (CMA) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $65
• Denali Therapeutics (DNLI) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $31
• Discover Financial (DFS) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $233
• Eaton Corp (ETN) Rated New Underweight at Oxcap; PT $265.40
• Eyepoint (EYPT) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $33
• Fifth Third (FITB) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $51
• First Citizens (FCNCA) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $35
• Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $19
• Icon (ICLR) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $263
• JPMorgan (JPM) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $260
• KalVista (KALV) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $30
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $35
• KeyCorp (KEY) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $19
• M&T Bank (MTB) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $233
• Northern Trust (NTRS) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $110
• On Holding (ONON) Reinstated Buy at BofA
• Penguin Solutions Inc (PENG) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $30
• PepsiCo (PEP) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $171
• PNC Financial (PNC) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $215
• Quantum Computing (QUBT) Rated New Add at Great Wall Securities
• Regions Financial (RF) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $25
• Rollins (ROL) Rated New Hold at Canaccord; PT $48
• Schwab (SCHW) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $86
• State Street (STT) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $106
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $72
• Tempus AI (TEM) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management; PT $52
• U.S. Bancorp (USB) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $54
• Wells Fargo (WFC) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $82
• Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $151

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke