Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods; 9:00ET FHFA House Price Index; 10:00ET Consumer
Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg Index; 10:30ET Dallas Fed Services Activity; 11:30ET $30 billion 2-year FRN; 1:00ET $44 billion 7-Year Note Auction

Highlights and News:  

• Trump Says Microsoft In Talks To Purchase TikTok
• Fertility rates have plunged across the world’s largest economies; FT
• Dollar Rises as Trump Vows Much Bigger Tariffs
• Ray Dalio warned the AI-driven rally in US stocks resembles the build-up to the dotcom bust
  
• Google will rename the Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America on Google Maps in the US
  
• Homeland Security Dept. Begins Immigration Raids in NYC: NYT

World shares rebounded somewhat after the previous day’s dramatic, tech-led selloff, and investors walked back some moves to safe-havens. President Trump said he
wants to impose across-the-board tariffs that are “much bigger” than 2.5%, the latest in a string of signals that he’s preparing widespread levies to reshape US supply chains. He threatened tariffs on specific sectors, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals,
steel, copper, and aluminum, and suggested imposing them on automobiles from Canada and Mexico. New US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing for a gradual rise in universal tariffs starting from 2.5%, and potentially up to 20%, the Financial Times reported.
     

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are mixed as Nasdaq sees a small rebound after Monday’s tech-fueled selloff as traders scooped up beaten-down chipmakers and power providers. Nvidia’s 17% one-day drop
marked the biggest loss in market capitalization for a single stock ever, outstripping its own record from last September. Apple, which retook the top valued firm slot from Nvidia on Monday, reports quarterly earnings on Thursday. Microsoft, Tesla and Meta
report earnings tomorrow. Profit growth for the biggest technology companies is projected to come in at the slowest pace in almost two years this season. Sam Altman called the R1 model impressive and said it’s “legit invigorating” to have a new competitor,
adding that OpenAI will accelerate the release of some products. The Fed kicks off its two-day policy meeting today and is widely expected to stand pat on rates as it assesses the policies of the new Trump administration.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 ~flat, DJI -0.05%.

 In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) rises 2% a day after Chinese artificial intelligence upstart DeepSeek prompted traders to rethink the extent of US tech dominance.
Chip-related stocks gain: Broadcom (AVGO) +2%, KLA Corp (KLAC) +1%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) +2%. JetBlue (JBLU) falls 6% reporting fourth-quarter earnings. Royal Caribbean (RCL) climbs 5% after the cruise operator forecast adjusted earnings per share for
2025 that beat estimates, and said its busiest booking period is off to a record start.  Synchrony Financial (SYF) falls 5% after posting fourth quarter results. Magnificent Seven: Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.7%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.5%, Apple (AAPL) +0.2%, Microsoft
(MSFT) +0.1%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.5%, Nvidia (NVDA) +2% and Tesla (TSLA) -0.2%.

European gauges climbed on the back of upbeat earnings, with retail and utilities stocks outperforming while miners lag. HSBC slipped as the bank said it would wind
down its M&A and equities businesses in Europe, Britain and the Americas. It plans to withdraw from providing equity capital markets and advisory services outside of its core operations in Asia and the Middle East. SAP SE shares rose to a record high after
Europe’s biggest technology company reported fourth-quarter cloud sales that slightly beat analysts’ expectations. Siemens Energy AG gained as much as 5.1% in early trading after an earnings beat.  Stoxx 600 +0.6%, DAX +0.6%, CAC +0.25%, FTSE 100 +0.4%. Retail
+2.3%, Utilities +1.6%, Autos +1.2%, Travel & Leisure +1.1%, Telecom +1%. Basic Resources -0.1%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower, while several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
fell 0.5%, on concerns surrounding AI-inflated tech valuations. Japanese chip-tester maker Advantest and Australian data center REIT Goodman were among the biggest decliners after DeepSeek’s cheap AI model triggered a selloff in related stocks. Stocks edged
higher in Hong Kong, as Tencent and other Chinese internet stocks extended gains. Large-cap shares in India advanced, while Japan’s benchmarks slipped. Shares of Indian banks gained after the Reserve Bank of India announced a plan to inject nearly $18 billion
into the domestic financial system. Bourses in mainland China, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia and Taiwan were shut. Sensex +0.7%, Thailand +0.4%, Hang Seng Index +0.15%, Singapore +0.1%. Topix -0.05%, ASX 200 -0.1%, Philippines -0.7%, Nikkei 225 -1.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

US Treasuries hold small losses, paring a rally the previous day that had sent yields to the lowest levels this year. The 10-year yield rose three basis points to
4.565%. Yields are 2bp-3bp higher across maturities with the 2s10s curve steeper by 1.5bps.  A $44 billion 7-year note auction during US afternoon concludes this week’s Treasury coupon supply cycle. 

METALS: 

Gold prices held steady after Monday’s sharp drop, as traders reacted to President Trump’s tariff threats. The dollar gained, limiting gold’s upside, as traders awaited
the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday. Policymakers are expected to leave rates unchanged, but the market will be interested in the bank’s views on growth and inflation given Trump’s policies. Spot gold +0.2%, Silver +0.1%, Copper +0.5%.

ENERGY:   

Oil advanced after Libya’s major ports were forced to halt loadings following protests, impacting about 400,000 b/d of exports. Oil prices are hovering near a two-week
low after weak economic data from China and warming weather forecasts elsewhere soured the demand outlook. China’s crude oil demand is also expected to be hit by the latest US sanctions on Russian oil trade. Top US oilfield services firms are facing weaker
pricing and revenue this year as oil producers become increasingly efficient and keep a cap on spending, according to oilfield executives. WTI +1%, Brent +0.9%, US Nat Gas -2.4%, RBOB +1%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar strengthened against all peers after comments from President Trump and his Treasury Secretary stoked concern about widespread US trade
tariffs. Trump said he was considering universal tariffs on everything from steel and copper to semiconductor chips. The BOJ’s sensitivity to tariff developments weighs on the yen. BoJ watchers think the bank is likely to wait until the summer to raise interest
rates again. US$ Index +0.6%, GBPUSD -0.6%, EURUSD +0.7%, USDJPY +0.5%, AUDUSD -0.8%, NZDUSD -0.7%, USDCHF +0.4%, USDSEK +0.7%, USDCAD +0.3%.       

Spot Bitcoin +1.3%, Spot Ethereum +0.5%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Astera Labs (ALAB) Raised to Outperform at Northland; PT $120
• Autodesk (ADSK) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $400
• Bancolombia (BCOLO CB) ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $53
• Ciena (CIEN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $88
• Cisco (CSCO) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $72
• CNH Industrial (CNH) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $16
• Ecolab (ECL) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $280
• Essential Utilities (WTRG) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $41
• Roper (ROP) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $615
• Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $53
• Downgrades
• AMD (AMD) Cut to Hold at Melius; PT $129
• Gibson Energy (GEI CN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$26
• Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT C$14.80
• Initiations
• Albemarle (ALB) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $96
• Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $41
• Armada Hoffler (AHH) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $11
• Beacon Roofing (BECN) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $125.20
• Cardiol Therapeutics (CRDL CN) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw
• Chemours (CC) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $27
• Eledon Pharmaceuticals I (ELDN) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $9
• Element Solutions (ESI) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $28
• Emerson Electric (EMR) Rated New Outperform at Daiwa; PT $147
• Expand Energy Corp (EXE) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $96
• Inmune Bio (INMB) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; PT $23
• Minerals Technologies (MTX) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $103
• Olin (OLN) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $38
• PolyPid (PYPD) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; PT $13
• Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Buy at Huatai Research; PT $20
• Rein Therapeutics Inc (RNTX) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; PT $8
• Tanger Inc (SKT) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $36
• Tronox (TROX) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $17
• Vera Therapeutics (VERA) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $58
• Westlake Corp (WLK) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $168

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke