Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:50ET Fed’s Hammack speaks; 10:00ET Fed’s Powell speaks; 3:30ET Fed’s Bowman speaks, Fed’s
Williams speaks

Highlights and News:  

• EU says Trump tariffs will trigger firm countermeasures
• US-EU Talks Can Soften Blow of Tariffs, ECB’s Kazaks Says
• Trump says Hamas should free all hostages by midday Saturday or ‘let hell break out’
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the company is “not for sale”
  
• A DANISH campaign has been launched to buy California and take over Disneyland
  

Global stocks eased as investors braced for further shifts in US trade policy and waited to hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on tariffs and inflation. On Monday,
President Trump increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 25% starting March 4, and also pledged to reveal global reciprocal tariffs in the coming days. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced today that she would implement “firm
and proportionate countermeasures” following President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.  Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Vietnam are the biggest sellers of steel into the US. France will keep its digital tax that
targets US tech giants despite the risk of retaliation with tariffs, with its finance minister saying, “it’s not a negotiating tool.”

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures dipped due to tariff news and as traders cautiously await testimony from the Fed’s Powell to the Senate Banking Committee later in the day and a reading on US inflation
due on Wednesday. US small-business optimism declined in January from a more than six-year high. Seven of the 10 index components decreased, led by the steepest monthly decline in capital spending plans since 1995. The group’s uncertainty indicator jumped
14 points, the most in monthly data going back to 1986.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.6%, Russell 2000 -0.6%, DJI -0.3%.

In pre-market trading, Amkor Technology (AMKR) falls 9% after the semiconductor manufacturer’s forecast for first-quarter net sales missed estimates. Astera Labs (ALAB)
slips 4% after the semiconductor connectivity company reported gross margins that were slightly below analyst estimates. Coca-Cola Co. (KO) rises 3% after profit beat Wall Street expectations as shoppers paid higher prices. DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s (DD) rises
5% as earnings jumped on growth in the electronics market. Fidelity National (FIS) drops 10% after providing a forecast for 1Q profit that missed the average analyst estimate. Fluence Energy (FLNC) plunges 42% after the renewable-energy equipment maker cut
its total revenue guidance for the full year. GlobalFoundries (GFS) drops 7% premarket after the semiconductor manufacturing company provided a 1Q revenue forecast that was shy of estimates. Harmonic (HLIT) sinks 26% after the communications equipment company
issued weaker-than-expected forecasts for revenue and profit. Lattice Semi (LSCC) rises 14% after the semiconductor device company gave reassuring 1Q guidance. Humana (HUM) rises 3% after the health insurer forecast revenue for 2025 that exceeded expectations.
Leidos (LDOS) rises 4% after providing a 2025 forecast. Mitek Systems Inc. (MITK), a software company focused on digital identity verification, falls 7% after posting fiscal 1Q revenue that slightly beat estimates and reiterating year revenue guidance. Phillips
66 (PSX) rises 5% as Elliott Investment Management has built a more than $2.5 billion stake in the oil refiner. Shopify (SHOP) falls 3% after the e-commerce company’s projected free cash flow disappointed investors. Meta shares are edging lower, putting the
social media giant’s stock on track to snap its record-setting 16-session winning streak.

European gauges reverse early gains following a record close on Monday as investors weigh the potential for a broader trade war with the US after the EU said it will
respond to any tariffs the US might impose on it.  The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed, after closing Monday at an all-time peak. Major bourses in London and Frankfurt edged up to touch new records. Travel & leisure and basic resources are among
the worst performing sectors while industrials and energy names outperform. French unemployment unexpectedly declined at the end of 2024, showing signs of economic resilience in a country wrestling with political instability and rising debt. UK retail sales
increased 2.5% in January from a year earlier, beating estimates. Kering SA shares lost early gains of more than 6%, as investors initially took encouragement from better-than-expected profit but a 24% drop in fourth-quarter sales for its Gucci — its biggest
label — showed that it continues to struggle to emerge from an extended demand downturn. BP Plc slipped ~1% while the energy firm pledged major changes at its upcoming strategy update. Stoxx 600 -0.05%, DAX +0.05%, CAC -0.05%, FTSE 1– +0.05%. Energy +0.3%,
Industrials +0.3%, Food & Bev +0.25%. Travel & Leisure -2.2%, Real Estate -2.1%, Basic Resources -2.1%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower as Beijing’s retaliatory duties on US energy and some goods came into effect on Monday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%, with
Chinese tech shares such as Tencent and Xiaomi among the biggest drags. Hong Kong stocks slid in the last hour of trade as Chinese tech stocks halt an impressive winning streak, while shares in Singapore slipped after hitting an all-time high. Some of the
biggest movers in Hong Kong were electric vehicle stocks, with BYD shares hitting a record high after the company rolled out free smart driving features on almost all models. Hong Kong will file a complaint on recent US tariffs imposed on the city to the World
Trade Organization, claiming the US has completely ignored the city’s status as a separate customs territory. Japan markets were closed for a holiday.  Hang Seng Tech -2.75%, Indonesia -1.75%, Sensex -1.3%, Hang Seng Index -1.1%, Philippines -0.8%, CSI 300
-0.45%, Singapore -0.4%. ASX 200 was flat. Vietnam +0.4%, Taiwan +0.6%, Kospi +0.7%, Thailand +1.1%.    

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries dip before Fed Chair Powell delivers his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Capitol Hill with US inflation data due Wednesday also coming into focus. 
US 10-year yields rise 4 bps to 4.54%: 2-year yield +~1bp at 4.29%. 2s10s curve steepens by 2.5bps. Wider losses across core European rates support higher Treasury yields. US Treasury coupon auctions resume with $58b 3-year note sale, to be followed by $42b
10-year and $25b 30-year Wednesday and Thursday.

METALS: 

Gold trades lower after hitting a new all-time high earlier in the session near $2,942/oz, driven by fears of a global trade war. Investors will be focused on Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday for clues about monetary policy. Short-term US inflation expectations have risen above longer-term ones to the widest since 2023. That may support the case for a slower pace of
easing, a scenario that could be bearish for bullion. Global gold ETF holdings have risen for six of the past seven weeks, hitting the highest since November, according to Bloomberg. Copper slides after hitting its highest level since May 2024, at key Fibonacci
(.618) resistance area. Spot gold -0.8%, Silver -2.3%, Copper -3.2%.

ENERGY:   

Oil advanced from near its lowest levels this year as shrinking Russian production eased concerns over a glut. Chinese refiners are being offered Russian ESPO crude
cargoes at lower prices due to growing concern around US sanctions. Oil futures have bounced after last week falling to their lows of the new year. Weakness was tied to Trump’s calls to boost US energy output and fears the administration’s imposition of additional
10% tariffs on China would dent demand from the world’s largest crude importer. Other tariff measures also served to raise concerns about the global economic outlook, analysts said. WTI +1.6%, Brent +1.6%, US Nat Gas +1.5%, RBOB +1.5%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US dollar held broadly steady against peers as markets awaited Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony and as investors struggled to gauge
the potential flow-on effects from Trump’s actions.  The euro edges higher while the EU said it will respond to any tariffs the US might impose on it, escalating a potential transatlantic trade dispute. Aussie$ swings between gains and losses. Australian Prime
Minister Anthony Albanese said Trump has agreed to consider exempting Australia from his steel and aluminum tariffs. Trading was thin due to a holiday in Japan. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD +0.15%, USDJPY +0.25%, AUDUSD +0.02%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF
+0.2%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDMXN ~flat, USDSEK -0.25%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.5%, Spot Ethereum +1%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Brixmor Property (BRX) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $31
• Compass (COMP) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $11
• First Solar (FSLR) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $259
• Monday.com (MNDY) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $420
• Steel Dynamics (STLD) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $155
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Raised to Buy at CFRA
• Downgrades
• Cloudflare (NET) Cut to Sell at DZ Bank; PT $145
• Columbus McKinnon (CMCO) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $35
• Dynavax (DVAX) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $12
• First National (FXNC) Cut to Market Perform at Hovde Group; PT $28.50
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) Cut to Sell at Guggenheim; PT $6
• Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $10
• Playa Hotels (PLYA) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $13.50
• Cut to Neutral at Macquarie; PT $13.50
• Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Q32 Bio Inc (QTTB) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $4
• Regenxbio (RGNX) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $14
• Seadrill (SDRL) Cut to Hold at ABG; PT $38
• Snap (SNAP) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• TechTarget (TTGT) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Initiations
• AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$5
• Acadia Pharma (ACAD) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $22
• Alkermes (ALKS) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $40
• Avadel (AVDL) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $12
• Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $176
• AZZ (AZZ) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $108
• BBB Foods (TBBB) Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $35
• Biogen (BIIB) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $160
• Biohaven (BHVN) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $65
• Crinetics Pharma (CRNX) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Denali Therapeutics (DNLI) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $31
• Domo (DOMO) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $11
• EQB Inc (EQB CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$130
• Flex (FLEX) Resumed Buy at Stifel; PT $52
• Gaia (GAIA) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $10
• Harmony Biosciences (HRMY) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $55
• Hesai Group (HSAI) ADRs Rated New Buy at BOC Intl; PT $23
• Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl
• IBM (IBM) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $320
• Marker Therapeutics (MRKR) Rated New Buy at Brookline Capital; PT $4
• Neurocrine Bio (NBIX) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $138
• Praxis Precision (PRAX) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $111
• Sarepta (SRPT) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $136
• Silence Therapeutics (SLN) ADRs Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $6
• Sunrise Realty Trust (SUNS) Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $12.75
• Transocean (RIG) Rated New Buy at ABG; PT $5
• TTM Tech (TTMI) Resumed Buy at Stifel; PT $33
• Valaris (VAL) Rated New Hold at ABG; PT $48
• Waystar (WAY) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $51
• Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $67

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke