Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Initial Jobless Claims; 9:35ET Fed’s Goolsbee
speaks; 10:00ET Leading Index, Eurozone February Consumer Confidence; 12:05ET Fed’s Musalem speaks; 1:00ET 30-year TIPS Auction; 2:30ET Fed’s Barr speaks; 5:00ET Fed’s Kugler speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Kremlin concerned with reports of European troops in Ukraine: TASS
• Delta offers $30k to each passenger on jet that flipped in Toronto
• Walmart Sinks Premarket After Outlook Misses
• Trump Says New Trade Deal With China Possible
• Hamas handed to the Red Cross the remains of four Israelis it had taken hostage
• Trump said he’s mulling tariffs of 25% on lumber
  

Global stocks eased as concerns around trade tariffs, geopolitical worries and a cautious stance from Federal Reserve policymakers weighed on sentiment. Market unease
intensified due to geopolitical concerns after Trump unsettled European leaders by labeling Ukrainian President Zelenskiy a “dictator,” amid US talks with Russia to end the Ukraine war. Trump said it would be possible to reach a fresh trade deal with China,
signaling he is open to heading off a brewing trade fight. Consumer confidence among UK households slipped to a new low, the British Retail Consortium said, with half of Britons expecting the economy to worsen over the next three months.

EQUITIES:  

 US equity futures slipped as the Fed’s openness to keeping rates on hold for longer, coupled with growing unease over geopolitical tensions, weakened investor confidence.  President
Trump signed a new slew of executive orders on Wednesday, including one aimed at preventing taxpayer dollars from supporting illegal immigration. The executive action also ensures that federal funds cannot be used by state or local “sanctuary” jurisdictions,
according to the White House. Trump said a fresh trade deal with China is possible as he touted his “great” relationship with Xi Jinping, but didn’t provide further details. Palantir Technologies was among the biggest losers in US premarket trading, on track
to extend Wednesday’s 10% slide, after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth outlined plans to cut military spending by 8% over the coming years. Walmart shares sank after its full-year profit outlook missed. Video game platform Vimeo and used car retailer Carvana
slumped after disappointing earnings.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P %, Nasdaq %, Russell 2000 %, DJI %

In pre-market trading, Walmart (WMT) falls 8% after forecasting lower-than-expected profit for the full year, citing an uncertain economic environment. Some retail
stocks decline after Walmart’s profit outlook: Costco (COST) -1.4%, Dollar Tree (DLTR) -1%, Target (TGT) -2%. Alibaba ADRs (BABA) soars 9% after the Chinese e-commerce giant reported sales that beat estimates. Amplitude (AMPL) rises 17% after the software
company forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2025 above estimates. BioMarin (BMRN) jumps 9% after the drugmaker forecast adjusted profits and revenue for 2025 that impressed. Carvana (CVNA) drops 9% after the used-car retailer reported lower gross profit
per vehicle and shrinking wholesale volumes for the latest quarter. Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN) jumps 16% after the financial technology company provided a 1Q and year revenue forecasts that topped estimates. Grab Holdings (GRAB) slides 8% after the
delivery company issued full-year revenue guidance that disappointed analysts. Herbalife (HLF) jumps 19% after the nutrition company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat consensus estimates. NerdWallet (NRDS) rises 10% after the consumer-finance
company forecast 1Q revenue that beat. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) shares fall 4%. Vimeo (VMEO) slumps 20% after the video platform forecast adjusted Ebitda for 2025 below expectations.

Real estate sector continues to hold a negative theme versus the overall market.

European gauges are mostly higher as some positive earnings news countered concerns over US trade tariffs and the outlook for interest rates in the region. The Stoxx
600 Index is holding in positive territory after the biggest drop in two months on Wednesday, due to trade jitters and uncertainty around negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Resource stocks are leading gains, while US-exposed defense names were undermined
by US plans to cut military spending. Schneider Electric SE jumped as much as 8.3% after an impressive fourth-quarter report.  In London, Centrica Plc rose the most in four years after announcing plans to return more cash to investors and unleash spending.
Mercedes-Benz fell after warning that its profits will be “significantly” lower this year. Renault SA and Airbus SE saw declines after releasing their results. Stoxx 600 +0.25%, DAX +0.4%, CAC +0.5%, FTSE 100 -0.4%. Basic Resources +1.7%, Banks +1%, Technology
+0.7%. Aro&Defense -1%, Healthcare -0.7%, Energy -0.3%.

Shares in Asia fell, as US-Ukraine tensions and the Federal Reserve’s commentary on interest-rate cuts weighed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.6%, the most in
more than two weeks, with Hong Kong-listed shares among the biggest drags. Alibaba fell ahead of reporting earnings, while Meituan declined on a plan to expand its pension plan. Chinese consumer and auto stocks rise after the government pledged antitrust action
among steps to spur consumption. Asia’s rare earth-related shares advanced after China said it plans to tighten mining rules for non-state firms. Quantum computing-related stocks rose in Asia after Microsoft announced its first chip for the technology. Hang
Seng Tech -3%, Hang Seng Index -1.6%, Thailand -1.3%, Topix -1.2%, ASX 200 -1.1%, Philippines -0.9%, Kospi -0.6%, Taiwan -0.5%, Sensex -0.3%, CSI 300 -0.3%, Singapore -0.2%. Vietnam +0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains on the day as US trading begins, having ticked higher after Bessent said terming out US debt is “a long way off.” 10-year yield near 4.51%
is 2.4bp lower on the day amid similar shifts across maturities.  US session includes weekly jobless claims data, 30-year TIPS auction and four Fed speakers. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said a strong economy allows policymakers to take their
time before considering any additional cuts to interest rates.

METALS: 

Gold is paring some of its gains after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Bloomberg Television interview that revaluing the US’s reserves of the metal were
“not what he had in mind” when he discussed monetizing the assets on the US’s balance sheet. Spot gold reached a fresh all-time high above $2,954 an ounce amid geopolitical tensions. Trump said his administration intends to check how much bullion is stored
at Fort Knox. He told reporters he wants to “make sure” the gold is there. Spot gold +0.35%, Silver +1%, Copper +1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil ticked up after industry data showed a rise in US crude inventories ahead of official figures. US crude inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels last week, the
API reported. That would take total holdings to the highest since late July if confirmed by the EIA today. OPEC+ is currently deciding on whether to delay a collection of monthly supply increases that were previously scheduled to start in April – a move that
would go against calls by the US President Donald Trump to lower prices, according to Bloomberg. Delegates who was present at OPEC+ talks said that global oil markets were “too fragile” to revive production so soon, adding that a decision had not yet been
made. WTI +0.4%, Brent +0.5%, US Nat Gas -2.3%, RBOB +0.3%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the risk-off mood lifted the safe-haven Japanese yen to its highest level since early December against the dollar amid expectations Japan’s inflation
data on Friday will support bets for further interest-rate hikes.  Aussie dollar also rose against the greenback after hiring topped estimates. The RBI is set to buy the biggest amount of bonds in four years to tackle a cash crunch in the banking system, according
to economists. The dollar weakened overnight on news Fed policymakers had discussed slowing or pausing the drawdown of its bloated balance sheet. Sterling initially jumped versus the dollar after data showed UK headline CPI came in at 3% versus a forecast
of 2.8%. US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.15%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY -1%, AUDUSD +0.4%, NZDUSD +0.35%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.15%, USDMXN -0.4%, USDSEK -0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin +1.2%, Spot Ethereum +1.2%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Amplitude (AMPL) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $17
• Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $16
• Assurant (AIZ) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $230
• Canadian Tire (CTC/A CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$170
• Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
• CMS Energy (CMS) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $75
• Lam Research (LRCX) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna; PT $125
• NXP Semi (NXPI) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $290
• Ormat (ORA) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $78
• Roku (ROKU) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $100
• Snowflake (SNOW) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $220
• SolarEdge (SEDG) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $18
• Trimble (TRMB) Raised to Strong Buy at CFRA
• Downgrades
• Celanese (CE) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $56
• DTE Energy (DTE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $135
• Eos Energy (EOSE) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $5
• European Residential REIT (ERE-U CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
• Fiverr (FVRR) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• International Flavors (IFF) Cut to Sell at CFRA
• SolarEdge (SEDG) Cut to Underperform at Northland; PT $15
• Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $15
• Initiations
• Baxter (BAX) Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT $39
• Beta Bionics (BBNX) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $31
• Rated New Neutral at Baird; PT $20
• Candel Therapeutics (CADL) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $25
• Electromed (ELMD) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $38
• Marimaca Copper Corp (MARI CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
• Palantir (PLTR) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $141
• Palvella Therapeutics In (PVLA) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $39
• Solaris Energy Infrastru (SEI) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke