Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 10:00ET New Home Sales, Building Permits; 12:00ET Fed’s Bostic
speaks; 1:00ET 7-Year Note Auction

Highlights and News:  

• Ukraine Said to Agree With US on Terms for Minerals Deal
• ZELENSKIY SAYS HE NEEDS MORE TIME TO EXAMINE US DEAL DRAFT
  
• China Plans Bank Capital Injections of at Least $55 Billion
• DeepSeek disclosed that it has reopened access to its core programming interface

Global stocks are higher, boosted by solid corporate earnings and optimism around a peace deal in Ukraine. Ukraine has agreed to jointly develop its natural resources
with the US as part of a deal that could ease tension with President Trump and advance his administration’s goal of a ceasefire with Russia. The agreement would create a joint US-Ukraine fund to manage future revenues from Ukraine’s natural resources but does
not spell out specific security guarantees. President Zelenskiy is planning to travel to the US Friday to seal the accord.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures gained ahead of key earnings from Nvidia Corp. that could help reignite the artificial intelligence-driven rally. Super Micro shares surged premarket after it filed
documentation to become compliant with Nasdaq rules. Investors will later in the day turn focus to Nvidia, which will deliver its highly anticipated fourth-quarter report after the bell, giving markets an update on AI spending. Power and electrical equipment
companies are trading higher after a report said Meta was in discussions to build a new data center campus for its AI projects that could cost more than $200 billion.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.7%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading, Advance Auto Parts (AAP) slips 3% after the auto-parts retailer projected that comparable sales would fall more than expected. Agilon Health
(AGL) drops 18% after the company, which runs a platform for primary-care physicians, provided a disappointing year revenue forecast. Axon (AXON) stock jumps 13% after the maker of Tasers and body cameras gave a forecast for 2025 that beat analyst expectations.
Cava (CAVA) shares rise 3% after the Mediterranean restaurant chain reported fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda and comparable sales that came ahead of estimates. First Solar (FSLR) gains 3% after the solar equipment maker reported fourth-quarter results. Flywire
(FLYW) sinks 35% after the global payments enablement and software company provided results and guidance that led to downgrades. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) advances 4% as Citi sees the copper miner as “the big winner” after US President Donald Trump signed an
executive order that may open the door to tariffs on copper. General Motors Co. (GM) rises 3% as the company plans to step up its program of buybacks by repurchasing $6 billion in shares and raising its dividend. Intuit (INTU) rose 8% after the tax-software
company reported second-quarter results that beat. Lemonade (LMND) falls 11% after the online insurance company gave guidance for 2025 that was weaker than expectations. Lowe’s Cos. (LOW) gains 3% after forecasting sales will rise this year. Olo Inc. (OLO)
climbs 15% after the restaurant software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat.

Consumer Staples (XLP) outperformed all other sectors yesterday and has now outpaced Consumer Discretionary (XLY) by more than 15% since the mid-January lows in the
pair.

European gauges are broadly higher with the Stoxx 600 surpassing the all-time intraday peak hit last week. Anheuser-Busch InBev jumped ~8% after earnings beat expectations
as increased marketing drove sales of its biggest brands and the key US market showed signs of recovery. Banco Santander SA gained as it said it would pay a total dividend increase of almost 20%, reflecting a record year. Construction and insurance shares
outperformed, while media stocks were the biggest laggards. Basic resources also outperform as copper prices rise on Trump’s tariff threat. Novartis AG fell ~3% as the Sandoz family sold a roughly 1.2% stake in the Swiss pharmaceutical group. Stoxx 600 +1%,
DAX +1.7%, CAC +1.3%, FTSE 100 +0.7%. Construction +2.3%, Insurance +2%, Travel & Leisure +1.7%. Media -1.7%, Telecom -0.4%.

Shares in Asia gained as mainland China and Hong Kong staged a strong rally amid a slew of positive developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7%. Chinese e-commerce
giants Alibaba and Meituan were among the top contributors as a meeting between the regulator and some firms was seen as promoting fair competition and improving the market environment. Bank stocks climbed as China plans to start re-capitalizing three of its
biggest banks in coming months, following through on a broad stimulus package unveiled last year to shore up the struggling economy. Chinese property stocks jump in the afternoon session, with analysts citing hopes that Beijing will soon announce supportive
measures for the sector.  Thailand’s benchmark equity index jumped more than 2% after its central bank unexpectedly cut rates. Equities in Japan fell while Indian markets was shut for a holiday. Hang Seng Tech +4.5%, Hang Seng Index +3.3%, Thailand +2%, Philippines
+1.3%, CSI 300 +0.9%, Taiwan +0.5%, Kospi +0.4%. ASX 200 -0.15%, Singapore -0.2%, Topix -0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed across maturities with losses led by the front end and belly, where 2- to 5-year yields are higher by nearly 3bp. Price action unwinds a portion
of Tuesday’s steep flight-to-quality gains spurred in part by soft data and helped by strong demand for 5-year note auction. 10-year yield is lower by ~1bp to 4.29%, just above its 200dma of 4.245%.  Treasury’s $44b 7-year note auction follows strong demand
for 2- and 5-year note sales earlier this week.

METALS: 

Gold traded in a narrow band on Wednesday after falling 1.3% the previous session, when traders booked profits from the metal’s latest record-breaking run. Copper
futures surged as much as 5% after President Trump signed an executive action directing the Commerce Department to examine possible copper tariffs. Spot gold -0.1%, Silver +0.05%, Copper +2.3%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices steadied with WTI futures trading near $69 a barrel after a 2.5% slump on Tuesday. The decline is attributed to growing economic concerns, particularly
the impact of President Trump’s trade actions, which have stoked investor anxiety and raised worries about energy demand, especially in China. Crude inventories at Cushing rose for a third week, climbing by 1.2 million barrels, the API reported. That would
lift total holdings at the storage hub to a three-month high if confirmed by the EIA today. OPEC+ is expected to roll over its output quotas at its coming meeting, which will keep the market balanced in the second half, Morgan Stanley said. WTI +0.03%, Brent
-0.1%, US Nat Gas -1.9%, RBOB -0.3%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar strengthened against G-10 currencies, supported by month-end flows and optimism surrounding potential early action on Donald Trump’s
tax cut plans. USDJPY rose as much as 0.4% before moderating gains, with market attention now shifting to Friday’s Tokyo CPI data release. Meanwhile, investors are anticipating comments from Bank of England rate-setter Swati Dhingra. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD
-0.05%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD -0.5%, NZDUSD -0.5%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.25%.

Spot Bitcoin -1.2%, Spot Ethereum -3.1%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alibaba (BABA) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $165
• American Air (AAL) Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT $24
• Arcus Biosciences (RCUS) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $24
• Baxter (BAX) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $42
• Check Point Software (CHKP) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $255
• Coupang (CPNG) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
• Dlocal (DLO) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $18
• Fair Isaac (FICO) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $2,170
• Home Depot (HD) Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $410
• Ingevity (NGVT) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $65
• Intuit (INTU) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Joyy (YY) ADRs Raised to Buy at BOCOM Intl; PT $63
• Lennox (LII) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $702
• Lumen Technologies (LUMN) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $6.50
• Porch Group (PRCH) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $6
• Spire (SR) Raised to Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $83
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Raised to Buy at Erste Group
• ZoomInfo (ZI) Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $11
• Downgrades
• Allied Gold (AAUC CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$5.30
• CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCCS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $11
• Civitas Resources Inc (CIVI) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Flywire (FLYW) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $15
• Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $16
• Grocery Outlet (GO) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $12
• Innergex Renewable Energy (INE CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
• Krispy Kreme (DNUT) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $6
• LivaNova (LIVN) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Lucid (LCID) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $1
• Lululemon (LULU) Cut to Hold at Erste Group
• Lundin Gold (LUG CN) Cut to Reduce at Veritas Investment Research Co
• Maravai (MRVI) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $3
• Moneylion (ML) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $90
• PROG Holdings (PRG) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $29
• Sempra (SRE) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $76
• Shutterstock (SSTK) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
• Tempus AI (TEM) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• UnitedHealth (UNH) Cut to Hold at Erste Group
• Veris Residential Inc (VRE) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $18
• Initiations
• Aritzia (ATZ CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$82
• Dell Technologies (DELL) Rated New Buy at Fubon; PT $140
• Diversified Royalty (DIV CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$3.75
• Flutter (FLUT) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $330
• Full Truck Alliance (YMM) ADRs Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $18
• MINISO (MNSO) ADRs Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $29.30
• Samsara (IOT) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
• Sound Point Meridian Capital (SPMC) US Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $22
• Sportradar (SRAD) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $27
• Tenet (THC) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $175

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke