Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on March 10, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  11:00ET NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations; 2:00ET Trump to hold roundtable with tech CEO
council

Highlights and News:  

  • Mark Carney Wins Canada Liberal Race, Will Succeed Trudeau
  • House Unveils Trump-Backed Bill to Avert Government Shutdown
  • UK coastguard responds to collision between an oil tanker and cargo vessel in the North Sea
  • Trump said he’s negotiating with four different buyers for TikTok’s US business

 

World stocks fell as mounting deflationary pressures in China heightened concerns about economic growth, and an intensifying worldwide trade conflict. Global market
sentiment has taken hits from escalated trade tensions and increasing worry about a slowdown after President Trump said the US economy faces “a period of transition.” Data on Sunday showed China’s consumer price index fell at the sharpest pace in 13 months
in February, while producer price deflation extended to a 30th straight month. Mark Carney has won the race to become Canada’s next prime minister, taking over from Justin Trudeau. Canada will keep in place its retaliatory tariffs against US-made products
as long as President Trump persists with a trade war, the Canadian prime minister-designate said. Mexican President Sheinbaum said she’s confident Trump won’t impose reciprocal levies, given Mexico itself doesn’t maintain any such trade barriers against the
US. The US freeze on intelligence sharing to Ukraine has been largely lifted, Trump said.

 

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are broadly lower after President Trump said over the weekend that the US economy faces “a period of transition.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier warned of
disruption to growth. Bessent also ruled out policy shifts to prop up the stock market. Coinbase slipped after S&P Dow Jones Indices excluded the cryptocurrency exchange from the S&P 500 index, while DoorDash saw its shares jump following its addition to the
benchmark. US stocks are at risk of slumping another 5% on worries about the hit to corporate earnings from tariffs as well as lower fiscal spending, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson. JPMorgan Chase analysts also said they are turning cautious
on risk assets. House Republicans announced a spending bill to keep government agencies open through Sept. 30, which may lead to a confrontation with Democrats and potentially a government shutdown. Trump said he’s negotiating with four different buyers for
TikTok’s US business and that a deal may come “soon.”  Rocket has agreed to buy Redfin in a deal that valued the real estate listing site at $1.75B.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -1.3%, Nasdaq -1.5%, Russell 2000 -1.3%, DJI -1.2%

In pre-market trading, Tesla slid about 3% and is closer to erasing its post-election gains, after data showed a plunge in China shipments. Redfin Corp. (RDFN) soars
85% after Rocket Cos. agreed to buy the company in a deal that values the real estate listing site at $1.75 billion. Rocket (RKT) slips 9%. Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) rises 12% after the drug developer gave initial data from an early trial of its investigative
therapy for a genetic disease that can cause lung and liver damage. Checkpoint Therapeutics (CKPT) soars 67% after the immunotherapy and targeted oncology company agreed to be acquired by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries. Coinbase (COIN) drops 6% after the cryptocurrency
exchange operator was left out of a reshuffling of the S&P 500 Index on Friday. DoorDash (DASH) climbs 3% as the S&P Dow Jones Indices is adding the food-delivery company to the S&P 500 index. Intuitive Machines (LUNR) slumps 8%, extending last week’s selloff
after it ended a lunar mission early following a flawed landing. Mineralys (MLYS) soars 45% after the drug developer said two trials of its experimental hypertension medicine, lorundrostat, met their main goals. Robinhood (HOOD) falls 5% after agreeing to
pay $26 million to settle allegations by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority that it failed to respond to red flags about potential misconduct.

 

ORCL EARNINGS TODAY: Shares of Oracle are down 17% over the last three weeks, and with solid checks and a pending lift from Stargate, UBS likes
the set-up into the print. The firm has a Buy rating and $210 price target on the shares. Oracle relative to XLK: held the 200dma in the pair, again. 

Discretionary stocks have underperformed this year. XLY vs SPY settled right on the 200dma in the pair on Friday.

European gauges reverse early gains to trade lower, with banks, construction and technology shares leading losses.  Novo shares fell after its next-generation shot
CagriSema showed 15.7% weight loss in a clinical trial of people with diabetes. The stock fell ~6% with investors concerned about the company’s ability to compete in the weight loss market in the longer term. Elsewhere, truckmakers fell after Traton SE’s margin
guidance for 2025 missed expectations. Ryanair Holdings rose after its board resolved that both EU and non-EU nationals can now invest in ordinary shares of the budget airline.  Germany’s Green party said it will reject a debt-financed package that would unleash
hundreds of billions of euros in defense and infrastructure spending. German industrial production rose 2% in January, driven mainly by car production, exceeding economists’ predictions. Stoxx 600 -0.6%, DAX -0.8%, CAC -0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.4%. Banks -1.9%, Construction
-1.9%, Technology -1.7%, Basic Resources -1.2%. Utilities +1.6%, Real Estate +0.9%, Autos +0.6%. 

Shares in Asia fell, led by declines in Hong Kong, amid concerns over persistent deflation in China and uncertainty over economic outlook for the US. The MSCI AC Asia
Pacific Index fell 0.6%, extending Friday’s losses. Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong slipped as consumer inflation fell below zero for the first time in 13 months. The consumer price index declined 0.7% from a year earlier, compared with a 0.5% gain in the
previous month. China’s core CPI decreased for the first time since 2021 with a drop of 0.1% — only the second time the gauge has contracted over more than 15 years. Consumption-linked stocks in India advanced after Finance Minister Sitharaman said the country
is close to reducing its goods and services tax rates. Hang Seng Tech -2.5%, Thailand -2%, Hang Seng Index -1.8%, Indonesia -0.6%, Taiwan -0.5%, Singapore -0.4%, CSI 300 -0.4%, Sensex -0.3%, Topix -0.3%. ASX 200 +0.2%, Kospi +0.3%, Vietnam +0.3%, Nikkei 225
+0.4%, Philippines +1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields slipped across maturities as investors sought safety, with US 10-year yields dropping ~6 bps to 4.24% and the curve slightly flatter. Traders are
piling into short-dated Treasuries, as tariffs and federal job cuts spur recession fears. A heavy corporate bond slate has been predicted for this week, with as many as 15 offerings viewed as possible for Monday. This week’s Treasury supply includes $58 billion
3-year notes, $39 billion 10-year notes and $22 billion 30-year bonds over Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

 

METALS: 

Gold fluctuated around $2,900 an ounce after gaining almost 2% last week, driven by concerns about the global economic outlook and haven demand. In China, data pointed
to persistent deflationary pressures. Bullion-backed exchange-traded funds have been attracting inflows, expanding for the past six weeks to reach the highest level since December 2023. Spot gold -0.15%, Silver -0.1%, Copper -0.4%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices held steady, consolidating after a seventh straight weekly loss for WTI tied to uncertainty over trade policy and other worries. Concerns over the impact
of tariffs on global economic growth and fuel demand, as well as rising output from OPEC+ producers, cooled investor appetite for riskier assets. On the supply side, Trump aims to stifle Iranian oil exports as a strategy to compel Iran to curb its nuclear
program. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared on Saturday that the nation will not be bullied into negotiations. US natural gas futures surged to the highest since December 2022 on signs storage levels may dip below the five-year average
this summer. WTI +0.5%, Brent +0.5%, US Nat Gas +3.8%, RBOB +0.9%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar eased while safe-haven yen and Swiss franc strengthened amid concerns over a potential US recession. The Norwegian krone outperforms
peers, rising over 1% after inflation accelerated more than forecast last month. The loonie is little changed after Mark Carney won the race to become Canada’s next prime minister.  US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.03%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.65%, AUDUSD +0.3%,
NZDUSD +0.5%, USDCHF -0.4%, USDNOK -1.2%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.15%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.5%, Ethereum +3.8%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Aecon Group (ARE CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$23
    • Airbnb (ABNB) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $185
    • Athabasca Oil (ATH CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$6.50
    • Camden Property (CPT) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $139
    • CME Group (CME) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $287
    • Cracker Barrel (CBRL) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $55
    • DocuSign (DOCU) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $75
    • Fastenal (FAST) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
    • Flutter (FLUT) Raised to Add at Peel Hunt; PT $287.85
    • Hawaiian Electric (HE) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI(Earlier)
    • Hudson Pacific (HPP) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $4
    • Independence Realty (IRT) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $24
    • KeyCorp (KEY) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $20
    • Knight-Swift (KNX) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $53
    • Mid-America (MAA) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $190
    • Paycom Software (PAYC) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $245
    • Pembina Pipeline (PPL CN) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT C$63
    • ProQR Therapeutics (PRQR) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $4
    • Samsara (IOT) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $48
      • Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $50
    • Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
    • WW Grainger (GWW) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
    • XPeng (XPEV) ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $29
  • Downgrades
    • Emerson Electric (EMR) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $110
    • Host Hotels (HST) Cut to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $18
    • Kilroy (KRC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $35
    • Marex Group (MRX) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $36
    • Methanex (MX CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $53
    • Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
    • Pebblebrook (PEB) Cut to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $15
    • Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $380
    • UDR (UDR) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $46
  • Initiations
    • Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $50
      • Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $21
      • Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • ArriVent Biopharma (AVBP) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $45
    • ChoiceOne Financial Services (COFS) Rated New Outperform at Hovde Group
    • Karman Holdings (KRMN) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $38
      • Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $42
      • Rated New Outperform at William Blair
      • Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $40
      • Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $35
    • Knife River Corp (KNF) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $102
    • Nvidia (NVDA) Rated New Buy at Founder Securities
    • SailPoint (SAIL) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $27
      • Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $29
      • Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $23
      • Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $29
      • Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $30
      • Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $25
      • Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $30
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $26
      • Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $25
      • Reinstated Outperform at RBC; PT $27
      • Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $26
      • Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $26
    • Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $60
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) US Re-Initiated Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $60

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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