Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  11:00ET JOLTS Job Openings; 1:00ET 3-Year Note Auction

Highlights and News:  

• House of Representatives set to vote today to avert government shutdown
• Greenland residents vote today in closely watched general election
• Citigroup downgraded its view on US equities while upgrading China to overweight
• Trump will meet around 100 CEOs of America’s biggest companies today
• US and Ukraine Begin Talks on Path to Possible Truce With Russia
  

World stocks steadied as some calm returned to markets after the previous day’s dramatic moves when Nasdaq saw its biggest one-day fall in over two years. HSBC downgraded
US stocks in favor of European companies and Citi cut its recommendation for US stocks to neutral while upgrading China to overweight. Top US and Ukrainian officials began talks in Saudi Arabia about the path to a possible peace deal with Moscow, hours after
Russia fought off the largest drone attack on its territory in the three-year war. Australia’s consumer confidence increased 4% to 95.9 points in March, the highest level in three years, due to easing inflation pressures. Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized
pace of 2.2% in the last quarter of 2024, lower than the preliminary estimate of 2.8%.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures edge higher following this year’s biggest one-day drop for the main indexes, with the tech-loaded Nasdaq recording its biggest percentage drop since September 2022.
US small-business confidence dropped for a third straight month in February, wiping away much of the gains notched in the aftermath of President Trump’s election victory in November. The Trump administration is pushing for a sweeping tax bill to help soften
the economic blow of his tariffs, with allies hoping to pass a bill by July. On the radar will be voting on a funding bill at Capitol Hill to avert a partial federal government shutdown. The House of Representatives is set to vote on legislation today to extend
government funding past midnight Friday, when it is due to expire. Focus later in the day will be on Trump’s meeting with around 100 CEOs of America’s biggest companies, as industry leaders grapple with uncertainty about wide-ranging tariffs and the market
selloff driven by recession fears. 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.45%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, DJI +0.1%

S&P 500 has seen a similar decline to the July ’24 break.

In pre-market trading, Oracle (ORCL) slips 1% after reporting lackluster results and a profit forecast that missed. Delta Air Lines is down 6.6% after sliding more
than 11% after the carrier slashed its first-quarter profit estimates by half as CEO Ed Bastian blamed heightened US economic uncertainty. American Airlines (AAL) slips 2% after saying it will have a larger first-quarter loss than expected.  2Seventy Bio (TSVT)
surges 76% after Bristol Myers Squibb agreed to buy the biotech company for $5 per share in cash. Asana (ASAN) slumps 27% after the software company issued first-quarter revenue guidance that failed to meet consensus expectations and said its CEO will retire.
Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) falls 5% as the retailer’s comp-sales view trails estimates. Eaton (ETN) gains about 1% after agreeing to buy Fibrebond for $1.4 billion. JetBlue (JBLU) rises 3% after providing a forecast update. Kohl’s (KSS) falls 14% after saying
comparable sales this year will drop as much as 6%. Net Power (NPWR) shares extended losses, falling 31% as investors continued to sell the clean energy technology company after it announced higher than anticipated costs for its Project Permian project. Redwire
Corp. (RDW) plunges 14% after the space infrastructure company reported revenue for the fourth quarter that trailed expectations.

TSLA: most oversold since January ‘24

European gauges are lower in choppy trading. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index underperforms, with the travel and leisure sector leading declines after a profit warning from
US firm Delta Air Lines. The German DAX outperforms as the Green Party’s co-head Franziska Brantner expressed optimism for an agreement by the end of this week in a dispute over defense spending with the country’s prospective next ruling coalition. Volkswagen
AG gained as the German automaker posted strong results that overshadowed a conservative outlook amid trade tensions. HelloFresh SE slumped after analysts said its guidance was weak. Stoxx 600 -0.7%, DAX ~flat, CAC -0.5%, FTSE 100 -0.5%. Travel & Leisure -2.7%,
Healthcare -1.5%, Retail -1.1%, Food & Bev -1%. Aero & Defense +1.4%, Energy +0.8%, Basic Resources +0.5%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index sliding as much as 2.1% to a five-week low, amid disappointing data from Japan. The gauge pared much
of its decline to settle -0.7% as Chinese stocks reversed losses led by tech, as Citi strategists upgraded China to overweight while downgrading US equities. Japan’s Topix declined following data indicating that the country’s economic growth in the final quarter
of 2024 was slower than initially reported. Other tech-heavy markets including South Korea and Taiwan underperformed. Taiwan’s Taiex plunged as much as 3.1% before finding dip-buyers. The Hang Seng Tech Index closed higher, erasing an earlier loss, on expectations
that China’s stimulus measures will support growth. Philippines -2.4%, Singapore -1.9%, Taiwan -1.7%, Kospi -1.3%, Topix -1.1%, ASX 200 -0.9%, Indonesia -0.8%, Sensex ~flat, Hang Seng Index ~flat. Hang Seng Tech +1.4%, Thailand +0.9%, CSI 300 +0.3%, Vietnam
+0.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are slightly higher with curve marginally flatter. US 10-year yield is +2 bps to 4.235% after falling as much as 6bps overnight. Focal points of US
session include January JOLTS data and 3-year note auction.  This week’s Treasury auction cycle begins with $58 billion 3-year note sale; $39 billion 10-year note and $22 billion 30-year bond reopenings follow over next two days. WI 3-year yield at around
3.902% is ~40bp richer than February’s, which stopped through by 1.3bp.

METALS: 

Gold climbed above $2,910 an ounce as a global selloff lost momentum, with investors concerned about the US economy. Bullion pushed higher following a small drop
Monday, when President Trump’s signal that the economy could first suffer as he reshapes trade policy with tariff stoked concerns about a potential recession.  Copper rose as a weakening dollar made commodities cheaper, while tariff-induced fears around global
growth kept gains in check. Spot gold +0.9%, Silver +1.4%, Copper +2.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices get a bounce after ending the previous session at six-month lows amid a global selloff for equities and other assets perceived as risky on fears of a global
economic slowdown from rising trade tensions. The Trump administration is prepared to enforce sanctions on Iranian oil production, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also discussed pressure on Iran with his Saudi counterpart. 
WTI +1.3%, Brent +1.3%, US Nat Gas +1.5%, RBOB +1%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the euro climbed after the co-leader of Germany’s Greens said the party is ready to negotiate and sees the chance of a defense spending deal
this week. The dollar retreats against most FX majors except the yen and franc. Adding to potential rate hike caution, Japan’s GDP grew at an annualized pace of 2.2% in the fourth quarter, lower than the preliminary estimate of 2.8%.  US$ Index -0.4%, GBPUSD
+0.4%, EURUSD +0.6%, USDJPY +0.25%, AUDUSD +0.15%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF +0.1%, USDCAD -0.25%, USDSEK -0.6%.

Bitcoin +3%, Ethereum +2.4%. Bitcoin stabilized after a five-day selloff.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Amazon (AMZN) Raised to Strong Buy at CFRA
• BankUnited (BKU) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $41
• Capital One (COF) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $200
• CenterPoint Energy (CNP) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $37
• FB Financial (FBK) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $58
• First Citizens (FCNCA) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $2,250
• GE Healthcare (GEHC) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $100
• Genmab (GMAB DC) ADRs Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $179
• Lumentum (LITE) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $92
• Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) US Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $46
• On Holding (ONON) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $58
• Redfin (RDFN) Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $12.50
• Spotify (SPOT) Raised to Neutral at Redburn; PT $545
• TXNM Energy (TXNM) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $53
• Unity Software (U) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $30
• Downgrades
• 2Seventy Bio (TSVT) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $5
• Afya (AFYA) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $17
• Checkpoint Therapeutics (CKPT) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $152
• Freshpet (FRPT) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Green Plains (GPRE) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $6
• Lennar (LEN) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $141
• Initiations
• Backblaze (BLZE) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $8
• Coeur Mining (CDE) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $7
• Hesai Group (HSAI) ADRs Rated New Buy at Daiwa; PT $35
• Immunome (IMNM) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital; PT $20
• Inuvo (INUV) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $2
• Molecular Partners (MOLN SW) ADRs Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital
• Murphy USA (MUSA) Rated New Buy at Melius; PT $600
• Northpointe Bancshares (NPB) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $18
• Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $15
• ORIC Pharma (ORIC) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $16
• Primoris Services (PRIM) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $73
• Protara Therapeutics Inc (TARA) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital
• Serina Therapeutics (SER) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $11
• W&T Offshore (WTI) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $2.25
• Westwater Resources (WWR) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $2.50
• Zymeworks (ZYME) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital; PT $30

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke