Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on March 13, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET PPI, Initial Jobless Claims; 1:00ET 30-Year Bond Auction

US FEB. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.2% Y/Y; EST. +3.3%.

Highlights and News:  

  • China Says US Owes ‘Big Thank You’ on Fentanyl, Urges Talks
  • PUTIN’S AIDE: RUSSIA DOESN’T WANT CEASEFIRE: INTERESTED IN LONG-TERM PEACE: IFX
  • TRUMP: US TO RETALIATE IF EU TARIFFS NOT REMOVED IMMEDIATELY
  • Israeli air force strikes Islamic Jihad terror cells in Damascus
  • CANADA’S RETALIATORY TARIFFS ARE `TONE DEAF’: LUTNICK
  • SpaceX postponed the launch of a new crew to the International Space Station to retrieve astronauts
  • Some Taco Bell locations have AI voice technology to take drive-thru orders

 

World stocks wavered as concerns about trade persist after President Trump said the US would respond to the EU’s countermeasures to his tariffs on steel and aluminum.
China claims to have forcefully cracked down on the fentanyl trade and condemned Trump’s tariffs. The amount of fentanyl seized at the US-Mexico border fell dramatically since January to its lowest level since December 2021, according to US Customs and Border
Protection data. A Foreign Ministry official called on the Trump administration to return to dialogue. Russia said it expelled Ukrainian troops from the key town of Sudzha in the Kursk region ahead of talks with the US, bringing President Putin closer to his
goal of completely dislodging Kyiv’s forces from his country. A Putin aide said Russia is interested in long term peace but does not want a temporary ceasefire.

 

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are slipping again after erasing early overnight losses as investors turned their attention back to an escalating global trade war. News that Putin doesn’t want a ceasefire
brought futures back into the red. The slide continued when Trump posted the US to Retaliate if EU Tariffs Not Removed Immediately, threatening a 200% tariff on wine. Although disappointing earnings weighed on software company Adobe and apparel retailer American
Eagle during post-market trading, Intel surged by up to 11% following the chipmaker’s announcement of a new CEO. Some strategists think a bottom for US stocks is “probably” here, with JPMorgan saying the worst of the correction may be over. Senate Democratic
leader Chuck Schumer said his party would block a Republican spending bill to avert a government shutdown on Saturday and urged the GOP to accept a Democratic plan to provide funding through April 11 instead. Investors will turn their focus to US producer
price index numbers after data Wednesday showed consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February.

Futures ahead of the bell/data: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.6%, Russell 2000 -0.4%, DJI -0.3%

In pre-market trading, Intel (INTC) jumps 11% after the chipmaker named Lip-Bu Tan as its next chief executive officer. Adobe (ADBE) falls 6% after the software maker
gave a mixed outlook. American Eagle (AEO) drops 9% as the clothier’s weak forecast overshadowed its 4Q earnings beat. Aveanna Healthcare (AVAH) rises 21% after the in-home health services company posted 4Q revenue that increased 8.6% from the year-ago period,
beating estimates. Dollar General (DG) gains 7% after forecasting sales will grow this year in a range with the top end higher than what Wall Street expected. SentinelOne (S) slumps 12% after the security software company gave a revenue forecast that disappointed.
UiPath (PATH) slides 18% after the automation software company gave a forecast that is weaker than expected. Vivid Seats (SEAT) slips 6% after at least two firms downgraded the online ticket marketplace in the wake of its results.

European gauges recovered from early losses before dipping on news that Putin is interested in long term peace but doesn’t want a ceasefire. Indices slipped further
after Trump posted the US will place 200% tariffs on alcoholic products from the EU if the 50% tariff on whisky is not removed immediately. The Stoxx 600 is back in the red with autos leading losses while telecom, health care, and insurance stocks outperform.
Novo Nordisk A/S rose after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the drugmaker. Defense shares rose after Jefferies analysts started coverage on a slew of stocks. Germany’s outgoing lower house of parliament will hold a special session today to debate a 500-billion-euro
fund for infrastructure and sweeping changes to borrowing rules. Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX -0.9%, CAC -0.5%, FTSE 100 -0.2%. Autos -1.6%, Industrial Goods -0.8%. Healthcare +0.5%, Telecom +0.5%, Insurance +0.4%.  

Shares in Asia reversed early gains as traders largely looked past weaker-than-expected US inflation data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped by 0.3% with Taiwan’s
benchmark the region’s biggest decliner as the central bank warned of currency risks from stock outflows.  A key gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong fell 0.5%, trimming a slide of as much as 1.7%, as investors searched for new catalysts after the DeepSeek-driven
tech rally and measures from the National People’s Congress. The PBOC pledged to foster favorable monetary and financial conditions to support a sustained economic recovery, as outlined in a statement following the close of the annual National People’s Congress
session. Hang Seng Tech -1.7%, Taiwan -1.4%, Vietnam -0.6%, Hang Seng Index -0.6%, ASX 200 -0.5%, CSI 300 -0.4%, Sensex -0.3%, Nikkei 225 -0.1%, Kospi -0.05%. Singapore +0.1%, Topix +0.1%, Philippines +0.8%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries dip ahead of US producer price data, with US 10-year yields rising ~2 bp to 4.33%.  The spreads between the yields on corporate bonds and US Treasuries
hit their widest since September this week, pointing to mounting investor worries about recession and a global trade war. Focal points of US session include February PPI, weekly jobless claims data and 30-year bond supply. Treasury curve spreads are mildly
steeper.

 

METALS: 

Gold is higher for a third straight day, with prices within striking distance of record highs as several banks predicted further gains for the haven asset amid the
escalation in global trade tensions. Gold’s safe-haven allure may see it surge to a record $3,500 an ounce during the third quarter, Macquarie said.  Bolivia’s state gold trader outlined plans to quadruple gold purchases this year to boost the central bank’s
foreign reserves–equivalent to $1 billion. Spot gold +0.4%, Silver -0.2%, Copper -0.2%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices eased after the International Energy Agency warned that consumption is under pressure from an escalating trade war, paring gains spurred by US inflation
data.  Global oil demand is under pressure from the escalating trade war at the same time that OPEC+ is reviving output, threatening to deepen a supply surplus, the IEA said. According to the International Energy Agency’s monthly oil market report released
today, global oil supply might outpace demand by approximately 600,000 barrels per day this year, following a reduction in its 2025 demand growth projection. That surplus could grow by a further 400,000 bpd if OPEC+ extends its unwinding of output cuts and
fails to rein in overproduction against quotas. WTI -0.65%, Brent -0.6%, US Nat Gas -1.8%, RBOB -0.2%.

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed versus G-10 peers while the Swedish krona is the weakest performer. The euro weakened ahead of a special session in the Bundestag
to debate the required legislation needed for new leader Friedrich Merz’s sweeping fiscal reforms. The yen strengthened after BOJ Governor Ueda said he expects real wages and consumer spending to improve as import inflation subsides while robust wage gains
continue. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD -0.5%, NZDUSD +0.55%, USDCHF ~flat, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK +1.1%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.2%, Ethereum +0.4%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Alkami Technology (ALKT) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $40
    • Birchcliff Energy (BIR CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$7
    • CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $31
    • CervoMed Inc (CRVO) Raised to Buy at Chardan Capital Markets; PT $14
    • Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $190
    • Intel (INTC) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $25
    • Invitation Homes (INVH) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • IREN Ltd (IREN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $12
    • Mercury Systems (MRCY) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs
    • Microsoft (MSFT) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $450
    • Range Resources (RRC) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $45
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $80
  • Downgrades
    • American Eagle (AEO) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $10
    • Arvinas (ARVN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $15
    • Cipher Mining (CIFR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
    • Coca-Cola Andina (ANDINAA CI) ADRs Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $21.06
    • Dentsply (XRAY) Cut to Hold at Needham
    • Dorel Industries (DII/B CN) Cut to Sell at TD Cowen; PT C$2
    • Federal Realty (FRT) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $105
    • Moelis & Co (MC) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $70
    • Oscar Health (OSCR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $16
    • Solo Brands (DTC) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $1
    • Sunnova Energy (NOVA) Cut to Neutral at Citi
    • UiPath (PATH) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $10
    • Vermilion Energy (VET CN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT C$12
    • Vivid Seats (SEAT) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
      • Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $2.60
    • ZimVie (ZIMV) Cut to Hold at Needham
  • Initiations
    • 89bio (ETNB) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $25
    • Alkermes (ALKS) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $40
    • Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $95
    • ArcBest (ARCB) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $93
    • Avidity Biosciences (RNA) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $70
    • BioNTech (BNTX) ADRs Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $145
    • C.H. Robinson (CHRW) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $115
    • Capstone Copper (CS CN) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT C$8
    • CF Industries (CF) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $86
    • Corteva (CTVA) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $71
    • Cybin (CYBN CN) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT C$50.35
    • Eagle Financial Services (EFSI) Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $40
    • Exact Sciences (EXAS) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $52
    • Expeditors (EXPD) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $110
    • FedEx (FDX) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $305
    • FMC Corp (FMC) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $51
    • GH Research (GHRS) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $32
    • GXO Logistics (GXO) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $40
    • JB Hunt (JBHT) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $165
    • Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (KNSA) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $40
    • Kymera (KYMR) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $52
    • Landstar (LSTR) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $160
    • Mister Car Wash (MCW) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $10
    • Moderna (MRNA) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $40
    • Mosaic (MOS) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $31
    • Natera (NTRA) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $251
    • Nutrien (NTR CN) Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT C$76.30
    • Old Dominion (ODFL) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $220
    • Ormat (ORA) Rated New Neutral at Baird; PT $81
    • Perspective Therapeutics (CATX) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $10
    • Planet Fitness (PLNT) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $120
    • RXO (RXO) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $24
    • ScanSource (SCSC) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $46
    • UPS (UPS) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $140
    • VSE (VSEC) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $136.60
    • XPO Inc (XPO) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $130

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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