Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on March 17, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Retail Sales Advance, Empire Manufacturing; 10:00ET NAHB Housing Market Index, Business
Inventories

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!  US FEB. RETAIL SALES RISE 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.6%

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump to speak with Putin on Tuesday about ending war in Ukraine
  • Investor focus turns to Nvidia’s GTC AI Conference this week
  • Iran foreign ministry still mulling response to Trump letter
  • OECD Cuts World Growth, Citing Tariff Fallout
  • US Vows ‘Unrelenting’ Strikes on Houthis Over Ship Attacks

 

World stocks are mostly higher after Beijing said it would take steps to revive consumption, while Chinese economic data showed stronger-than-expected Industrial
Production. This week is packed with central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England, all of which are widely expected to hold rates steady. Over the weekend the US defense secretary said the country would continue
attacking Yemen’s Houthis until they ended attacks on shipping. Meanwhile, Germany’s parliamentary budget committee gave the green light to the infrastructure bill, set for a vote in the lower house on Tuesday and in the upper house on Friday. Trump said he
plans to speak to President Putin on Tuesday and discuss ending the Ukraine war, after positive talks between US and Russian officials in Moscow. The US is pressing for Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine has said it’s ready to accept. Trump
said much of the planned call on Tuesday will be about territory and power plants.

 

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are lower after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed recent declines as healthy, reinforcing the view that the Trump administration is unlikely to step in to boost
markets. President Trump also reminded investors over the weekend that he would be imposing both broad reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs on April 2. Focus this morning will be on US retail sales data which is expected to reinforce the
picture of a slowing economy, following below-forecast inflation readings last week. Tesla is leading premarket losses among the Magnificent Seven stocks, while Nvidia gained before its much-anticipated conference on artificial intelligence. The chip giant’s
shareholders are hoping that a keynote speech from chief executive Jensen Huang can inject some much-needed optimism and momentum into the stock. Oracle is accelerating discussions with the White House on a deal to run TikTok’s US business, Politico reported.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.5%, DJI -0.5%.

In pre-market trading, DocuSign (DOCU) rises 1% after William Blair upgraded the e-signature software firm to outperform, noting market opportunity for the company’s
Intelligent Agreement Management platform. Incyte (INCY) sinks 14% after reporting topline results from a Phase 3 clinical trial program evaluating the safety and efficacy of povorcitinib. Netflix (NFLX) gains 1% as MoffettNathanson turns bullish, saying the
company’s ability to better monetize its engagement remains an underappreciated aspect of its scale. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) rises 4% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight. Science Applications (SAIC) climbs 10% after the government IT services
contractor posted 4Q results and provided guidance. Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) climbs 1% after Deutsche Bank raised its rating to buy from hold following the stock’s recent pullback.

European gauges are higher, getting a boost after China said it would take steps to revive consumption. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index outperforms with energy leading the
gains after China said it will boost people’s incomes and stabilize stock and real estate markets as the government tries to ease the deflationary pressures on the economy.  Shipping stocks including AP Moller-Maersk A/S, Hapag-Lloyd AG also gained as the
US vowed strikes on the Yemen-based Houthi militants over Red Sea vessels attacks. Investors’ optimism will hinge on the ability of the German parliament to push through the infrastructure and defense spending package on Tuesday. Among other individual stocks,
QinetiQ Group Plc dropped as much as 22% after the group downgraded growth expectations for this and next year.  Stoxx 600 +0.4%, DAX +0.15%, CAC +0.25%, FTSE 100 +0.1%. Energy +1.1%, Healthcare +0.8%, Basic Resources +0.8%, Autos +0.7%. Luxury -0.3%, Personal
Good -0.3%, Retail -0.1%. 

Shares in Asia rose, pulled higher by a rebound in technology shares and a sense of optimism over China’s plans to boost consumption. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained
0.9%, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics giving the biggest boost as they tracked a recovery in US tech shares Friday. In China, data today showed retail sales growth quickened in January-February, while a series of new policy
measure from Chinese authorities to boost domestic consumption had little impact on local stocks. Beijing said it will promote “reasonable growth” in wages and set up a mechanism to adjust the minimum salary. Asian defense stocks jumped after Germany reached
an agreement on a debt-funded spending package for defense and infrastructure. Kospi +1.7%, Topix +1.2%, ASX 200 +0.8%, Hang Seng Index +0.8%, Vietnam +0.8%, Taiwan +0.7%, Singapore +0.6%, Sensex +0.5%, Philippines +0.2%. CSI 300 -0.2%, Thailand -0.3%, Indonesia
-0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are richer by 1 to 3 bps across the curve, following a wider bull-flattening rally seen across bunds which find support from short covering flow ahead
of Tuesday’s vote on the spending package. US session focus includes retail sales data, while corporate-issuance slate is expected to be active.  US 10-year yields trade around 4.28% and richer by ~3bps and 2s10s curve is flatter by ~2.5bps.

 

METALS: 

Fears of a protracted global trade war are benefiting haven assets, with gold holding close to record highs. UBS raised its price outlook for gold to $3,200 an ounce
in the next four quarters on growing chances of a protracted global trade war. ETF holdings of gold continue to rise as Western investors accumulate positions, while central bank buying continues to prop up the rally. China’s central bank has added holdings
for the past four months, after a six-month pause in 2024. Spot gold +0.15%, Silver -0.4%, Copper +0.4%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil moved higher after China unveiled plans to boost domestic consumptions and the US vowed to keep attacking Yemen’s Houthi rebels.  Trump ordered the US military
to launch ‘decisive and powerful’ military action against Houthis in Yemen and told Iran to end support for Houthis immediately. US Secretary of State Rubio commented that the US military campaign in Yemen will go on until the Houthis no longer have the capability
to strike ships. Yemen’s Houthis said naval operations will continue until the Gaza blockade is lifted and aid is let in, while saying it targeted a US aircraft carrier with ballistic missiles and drones in the Red Sea. Goldman Sachs Group cut its oil price
forecasts, as tariffs reduce the outlook for US growth while OPEC and its allies boost output. Goldman cut its December forecast for Brent to $71 and also lowered its guidance for oil demand growth by 18%.  WTI +1.3%, Brent +1.2%, US Nat Gas +1.5%, RBOB +1.3%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is weaker following a weekend with little fresh trade-related news, except for Trump restating he has no intention of creating exemptions
on steel and aluminum tariffs. The yen is slightly higher versus the dollar ahead of the BOJ’s meeting this week where it is expected to keep rates on hold, though most economists expect further policy tightening later this year. Norway’s krone extends recent
gains amid lower probability of an interest rate cut by Norges Bank this month. US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.3%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.15%, AUDUSD +0.4%, NZDUSD +0.7%, USDNOK -0.7%, USDCHF -0.3%, USDCAD -0.15%, USDSEK -0.3%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.3%, Ethereum +0.7%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Accenture (ACN) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $390
    • American Tower (AMT) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $230
    • Blue Owl Capital Corp (OBDC) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • Cresco Labs (CL CN) Raised to Speculative Buy at Cormark Securities
    • Crown Castle (CCI) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $105
    • DouYu (DOYU) ADRs Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $9
    • Flowserve (FLS) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $71
    • Generac (GNRC) Raised to Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Genesis Energy (GEL) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $18
    • Liberty Formula One (FWONA) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities
    • Monday.com (MNDY) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $350
    • Netflix (NFLX) Raised to Buy at MoffettNathanson LLC; PT $1,100
    • Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $30
    • SL Green (SLG) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $73
    • Sprouts Farmers (SFM) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $190
  • Downgrades
    • Campbell’s (CPB) Cut to Equal-Weight at Consumer Edge Research; PT $40
    • Cion Investment (CION) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $10
    • EastGroup (EGP) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $185
    • Finward (FNWD) Cut to Market Perform at Hovde Group
    • FS KKR Capital (FSK) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $19
    • Li Auto (LI) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Macquarie; PT $27
    • RLX Tech (RLX) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $2.50
    • Sutro Biopharma (STRO) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (TPVG) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo
  • Initiations
    • Actuate Therapeutics (ACTU) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $20
    • Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $100
    • Array (ARRY) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $7
    • Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $135
    • Butterfly Network (BFLY) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • BXP (BXP) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $78
    • COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $31
    • Cousins Properties (CUZ) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $35
    • Douglas Emmett (DEI) Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT $16
    • Easterly Government (DEA) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $13
    • Ezcorp (EZPW) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $16
    • Ferguson (FERG) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Highwoods (HIW) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $32
    • Hudson Pacific (HPP) Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT $2.70
    • Kilroy (KRC) Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT $34
    • Laureate Education (LAUR) Rated New Buy at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $26
    • NEXTracker (NXT) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $55
    • Nurix (NRIX) Reinstated Market Perform at Leerink; PT $16
    • Nuvectis Pharma (NVCT) Rated New Buy at Laidlaw; PT $19
    • Reddit (RDDT) Rated New Sell at Redburn; PT $75
    • Shattuck Labs (STTK) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $4
    • SL Green (SLG) Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT $58
    • Veritone (VERI) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $6
    • Waterdrop Inc. (WDH) ADRs Rated New Buy at UOB Kay Hian; PT $2.20

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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