Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on March 19, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  2:00ET FOMC Rate Decision; 2:30ET Fed’s Powell Press Conference; 4:00ET Net Long-term TIC
Flows

Highlights and News:  

  • Zelenskiy will hold a phone call with Trump today, says US should control adherence to partial truce
  • Russia and Ukraine report drone attacks after Putin-Trump call
  • BofA Warns of China Stock Rally Correction
  • Trump will meet with oil industry execs today
  • Tesla removed from the Vancouver Auto Show as an exhibitor after vandalism incidents in the US
  • Cantor Fitzgerald Upgrades Tesla to Overweight from Neutral – PT $425

 

World stocks fluctuated ahead of the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision and new dot plot. Sentiment was hit after Russia’s Putin declined Donald Trump’s bid for
a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, agreeing instead to limit attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure. Russia and Ukraine accused each other of launching drone attacks that struck civilian targets including infrastructure, just hours after Putin told President
Trump he would pause attacks on Ukraine’s energy system.  Zelenskiy stated that Ukraine will never recognize territories occupied by Moscow as Russian and that the size of his army shouldn’t be a subject for talks with Putin. The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark
rate unchanged and cited worries over the potential impact from US tariff policies, suggesting that it’s not in a rush to hike for now. Brazil’s central bank is expected to deliver on its December forward guidance today with a 100-bp rate hike to 14.25%. 

 

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures edge higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated monetary policy decision, where the central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged. Attention will center
on fresh economic forecasts from policymakers, offering insight into their views on how President Trump’s trade and immigration policies might impact economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. Purdue filed a new Chapter 11 plan, pledging it’ll give creditors
over $7.4 billion of cash to compensate victims of the opioid crisis. Tesla (+3%) is leading gains among the Magnificent Seven stocks pre-market after the electric-vehicle maker was granted approval in California to begin carrying passengers in its vehicles
in a step toward ride-hailing services.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI +0.05%.

In pre-market trading, Signet Jewelers (SIG) jumps 14% after the owner of Kay Jewelers said sales are recovering following a disappointing holiday season. StoneCo (STNE)
climbs 10% after the Brazilian fintech posted 4Q adjusted net income that beat. Venture Global (VG) gains 6% after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is prepared to give the company conditional approval to export natural gas from a planned facility
in Louisiana that had stalled under former President Joe Biden. Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX) rises 27% after the company entered into a licensing agreement with Servier, a pharmaceutical group governed by a non-profit foundation. Cargo Therapeutics (CRGX)
soars 19% after appointing Anup Radhakrishnan as interim CEO to lead the company through a reverse merger or other business combination. General Mills (GIS) slips 3% after the packaged-food company cut its organic net sales forecast for the full year. Gilead
Sciences (GILD) drops 2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US Department of Health and Human Services was weighing plans to cut federal government funding for domestic HIV. HealthEquity (HQY) drops 14% as fraud-related costs weighed on results.

Airlines have been battered this year after major gains in 2024. UAL holding key Fibonacci support and oversold

European gauges are mostly lower after recovering from initial declines triggered by a drop in Turkish assets that led to a wider, though limited, risk-off move. Euro-area
inflation was revised down in February, strengthening calls for the ECB to continue cutting rates. The Stoxx 600 is barely in the red, led by gains in technology and energy names while aero & defense underperforms. Swiss watchmaker Swatch Group AG rose as
much as 2.7% after the CEO said he is hoping the firm will be taken private. In the UK, Tesco Plc resumed declines, falling as much as 2.2% to the lowest since August, amid concerns over a potential escalation of supermarket price competition. GSK Plc fell
as much as 2.6% as the Wall Street Journal reported the US Department of Health and Human Services was considering to cut federal government funding for domestic HIV funding. Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX -0.3%, CAC +0.25%, FTSE 100 -0.3%. Aero & Defense -1%, Chemicals
-0.7%,, Basic Resources -0.6%. Energy +0.7%, Technology +0.5%.  

EWG vs SPY: extremely overbought

Shares in Asia showed varied performance as traders await more clues on the economic outlook from the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
erased earlier gains of as much as 0.4% to trade little changed. Indonesian stocks outperformed, bouncing back from Tuesday’s steep selloff. Indonesia’s securities regulator eased share buyback rules after this week’s stock rout. Chinese gauges were mixed
as uncertainties lingered over Beijing’s policy-direction in boosting consumer spending and stoking local demand. In a note Monday, Bank of America strategists warned of a “meaningful correction” for China’s stock rally, given its similarities with the 2015
boom-and-bust cycle. Japanese shares gained after the central bank held rates steady as expected. South Korea equities also climbed, ahead of an imminent verdict in the impeachment of Yoon Suk-Yeol. Indonesia +1.4%, Thailand +1.1%, Kospi +0.6%, Philippines
+0.4%, Topix +0.4%, Singapore +0.3%, Sensex +0.2%, Hang Seng Index +0.1%, CSI 300 +0.05%. Nikkei 225 -0.2%, ASX 200 -0.4%, Vietnam -0.5%, Taiwan -1.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are steady in muted trading as investors await Federal Reserve’s policy decision at 2pm New York time and Chair Powell’s news conference at 2:30pm. 10-year
yield around 4.29%, marginally cheaper on the day: 2s10s -1bp. Traders have been piling into hawkish hedges that anticipate the central bank remaining on hold through June; Fed-dated OIS contracts currently price in around 58bp of easing by year-end with the
first move fully priced by the July policy meeting.

 

METALS: 

Gold steadies, hovering around $3,040 an ounce, due to geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand. Safe haven demand has also risen this week as Israel ended its
Hamas ceasefire with airstrikes across Gaza. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady today, but investors are focusing on the central bank’s economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on US monetary policy.
Spot gold +0.1%, Silver -0.2%, Copper +0.7%.

 

 

GOLD vs COPPER; hovering around the 200dma in the pair as copper outperforms this year.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices eased somewhat following Russia’s acceptance of President Trump’s proposal that Moscow and Kyiv pause attacks on each other’s energy facilities, a step
that could potentially open the door for Russian oil to reach international markets. US crude inventories rose by 4.59 million barrels last week, API data showed. That would take total holdings to the highest since July if confirmed by the EIA today. Goldman
warned crude faces downside risks given the scope of an escalation in trade tariffs and elevated spare capacity. Meanwhile, Trump will meet with oil industry execs later today. WTI -0.1%, Brent -0.1%, US Nat Gas +3%, RBOB -0.02%. 

 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar rose versus all Group-of-10 peers as traders unwound short exposure ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision. The yen weakened
after the BOJ stands pat on rates and signaled rising unease over global trade tensions. The Turkish lira fell by more than 12% to a fresh record low after the detention of President Erdogan’s most prominent rival stoked concern that recent investor-friendly
economic policies may be rolled back. Turkish lenders were said to have sold about $8 billion to support the currency. Swedish krona is weaker as expectations for short-term inflation rates in Sweden gained in a quarterly survey ahead of Thursday’s announcement
of the Riksbank’s rate decision. US$ Index +0.4%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.4%, USDJPY +0.4%, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD -0.5%, USDCHF +0.25%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK +0.4%.

 

 

Bitcoin +2.4%, Ethereum +6.3%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Raised to Buy at Compass Point; PT $64
    • Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$56
    • Crown Castle (CCI) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Golar LNG (GLNG) Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT $42
    • Live Nation (LYV) Raised to Buy at CFRA; PT $135
    • Meta (META) Raised to Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $754.29
    • Mosaic (MOS) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $33
    • RTX Corp (RTX) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $160
    • Service Properties (SVC) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $4
    • Tesla (TSLA) Raised to Overweight at Cantor; PT $425
    • Up Fintech Holding (TIGR) ADRs Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $9.50
    • Vulcan Materials (VMC) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $285
  • Downgrades
    • Carlyle Group (CG) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$7.25
    • Huya (HUYA) ADRs Cut to Hold at Daiwa; PT $3.60
    • Jefferies (JEF) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Martin Marietta (MLM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $560
    • MEG Energy (MEG CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$26.50
    • NuVista Energy (NVA CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$16.25
    • Pine Cliff Energy (PNE CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins
    • PSEG (PEG) Cut to Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $82.50
    • Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$5.25
    • Thor Industries (THO) Cut to Neutral at Citi
    • Tourmaline Oil (TOU CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$74
    • Vermilion Energy (VET CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$14
    • XPeng (XPEV) ADRs Cut to Hold at Daiwa; PT $24
  • Initiations
    • Atlassian (TEAM) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $255
    • BioVie (BIVI) Rated New Buy at Brookline Capital; PT $6
    • Braze (BRZE) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $43
    • Centerspace (CSR) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $68
    • Cinemark (CNK) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $31
    • Etsy (ETSY) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $50
    • Full Truck Alliance (YMM) ADRs Rated New Buy at TF Securities
    • HubSpot (HUBS) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $769
    • Hut 8 Corp (HUT CN) Rated New Buy at Clear Street
    • Imax (IMAX) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $36
    • Independence Realty (IRT) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $24
    • Klaviyo (KVYO) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $43
    • Marcus Corp (MCS) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $27
    • MercadoLibre (MELI) Rated New Buy at XP Investimentos; PT $2,500
    • National CineMedia (NCMI) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $7.50
    • Nike (NKE) Rated New Hold at China Renaissance; PT $65.20
    • OneStream (OS) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $27
    • Oracle (ORCL) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $167
    • ResMed (RMD) Reinstated Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $280
    • Robinhood (HOOD) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $61
    • Salesforce Inc (CRM) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $311
    • Up Fintech Holding (TIGR) ADRs Reinstated Buy at Soochow Securities
    • Workiva (WK) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $111

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed