Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 9:05ET Fed’s Williams speaks

Highlights and News:  

• London Heathrow Closed by Fire in Biggest Disruption in Decades
• India in Talks with US for Mutually Beneficial Trade Deal
• US Markets Brace for Triple-Witching Volatility
• Trump signed an executive order to largely dismantle the Education Department
• TRUMP REITERATES APRIL 2 US WILL GET MONEY, RESPECT BACK
• France to host a global summit on Ukraine next week
  

Global stock markets fell as a wave of disappointing corporate earnings heightened worries in a market already unsettled by the threat of a disruptive US trade war.
Investors pulled heavily out of global equity funds during the week through March 19 on lingering tariff worries. US equity funds faced the largest weekly selloff in three months to the tune of $33.53B, while Asian funds saw a 14th straight week of net buying. 
Germany’s move to unlock hundreds of billions of euros in debt-funded spending for defense and infrastructure cleared its final legislative hurdle today. London’s Heathrow airport suffered its worst disruption in at least two decades, after a nearby fire cut
power to the hub and brought travel to a standstill for hundreds of thousands of passengers. President Xi Jinping’s government is set to welcome Montana Senator Steve Daines for talks in China, as the world’s largest economies try to move forward trade negotiations
that have stalled at lower levels.   

EQUITIES:  Global Quarterly Index Rebalance
Today

US equity futures are slightly lower ahead of an additional test today in the form of triple witching, an event that can stoke volatility as options contracts worth $4.5 trillion head
for expiry. Latest results from FedEx Corp. — considered an economic barometer — highlighted the risk to corporate earnings, as the company cut its profit outlook, citing cost pressures and weaker demand. Nike also blamed tariffs and geopolitics for hurting
its earnings. Trump invoked emergency powers to boost the production of critical minerals. Separately, the president said he’ll be signing a natural-resources deal with Ukraine “shortly.” The White House will pick either Lockheed or Boeing today to build the
next-gen fighter jet. Nvidia-backed CoreWeave’s IPO was oversubscribed after the first day.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.5%, DJI -0.3%.

In pre-market trading, Micron Technology (MU) shares are down 3.5% after the memory-focused chipmaker gave a margin outlook that is seen as offsetting an otherwise
positive report. FedEx (FDX) drops 7% after the parcel delivery company lowered its full-year guidance for a third consecutive quarter, citing inflation and uncertain demand for shipments. Nike (NKE) falls 6% as the company signaled further declines in revenue
and profitability due to an ongoing merchandise reset and the impact of US tariffs on products from China and Mexico. Lennar Corp. (LEN) declines 4% after the homebuilder’s margin guidance came in below expectations amid a challenging US housing market. Lockheed
Martin (LMT) climbs 2% higher after Bloomberg reported the White House is poised to announce today the winner of its contest to build the next-generation fighter jet. Luminar (LAZR) climbs 8% after the automotive technology company reported revenue for the
fourth quarter that beat. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) gains 5% after the company won expanded approval for a heart drug that could be the biggest boon yet for the 23-year-old biotech and put it in competition with Pfizer. Nio Inc. (NIO) ADRs slip 4% after
the Chinese electric vehicle maker now expects to deliver only as many as 43,000 cars in the three months that will end March 31; that’s short of the around 65,000 units the market was looking for. Ouster Inc. (OUST) rises 5% after the maker of sensors used
in robotics posted 4Q revenue that increased 23% from the year-ago period and beat estimates. Planet Labs (PL) slides 9% after the Earth imaging company’s revenue outlook disappointed.

European gauges fall for a second day, trimming weekly gains, as sentiment remains fragile over trade tariffs and the state of the economy. Travel and leisure sector
was among the biggest laggards as London’s Heathrow airport closure weighed on airline shares. Telecom stocks outperformed as Tele2 AB advanced 2% after the Swedish telecommunications firm was upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan. Shares of Nike partner JD Sports
fell as much as 6.5% after Nike results. Beneteau shares fell as much as 13% after revenue forecast missed estimates.  Stoxx 600 -0.75%, DAX -0.9%, CAC -0.8%, FTSE 100 -0.5%.  Basic Resources -2%, Travel & Leisure -1.6%, Retail -1.5%, Technology -1.3%. Telecom
+0.6%, Utilities +0.2%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower as a selloff in Chinese shares extended amid a lack of catalysts, while traders braced for President Trump’s upcoming tariffs. The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.5%, although it still ended the week with a ~2% gain. Chinese shares in Hong Kong posted their biggest two-day drop since October as traders digested earnings and awaited further policy catalysts.  Elsewhere, traders are
monitoring the political development in Indonesia, after the parliament passed legislation expanding the role of the country’s armed forces. Shares of Australian miners linked to critical minerals decline after Trump signed an executive order to ramp up the
development of US domestic natural resources. Hang Seng Tech -3.4%, Hang Seng Index -2.2%, Indonesia -1.9%, CSI 300 -1.5%, Philippines -0.9%, Taiwan -0.75%, Vietnam -0.1%, Singapore -0.1%. Sensex +0.7%, Thailand +0.4%, Topix +0.3%, Kospi +0.2%, ASX 200 +0.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries inch higher, pushing US 10-year yields down about 3 bps to 4.205%: 2s10s curve is ~flat, 5s30s +1.5bp.  Euro-area government bonds also advance with traders
now pricing in two more quarter-point European Central Bank reductions this year. Gilts fall, underperforming peers after UK government borrowing topped estimates in February. Fed’s Goolsbee and Williams are scheduled to speak this morning, while economic
data slate is blank.

METALS: 

Gold eased as investors booked profits after hitting three successive all-time peaks this week. Bullion was on track for a third straight weekly gain, having added
1.6% so far this week. Citi has warned that commodity markets are not prepared for President Trump’s next round of tariffs due in less than two weeks. This dynamic could turbocharge the gold price rally and worsen the dislocations in other metal markets. Citi
expects gold to be exempted from the tariffs given its status as a monetary asset but believes other metals such as copper are more vulnerable. Spot gold -0.3%, Silver -1.2%, Copper -1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil edged lower, a day after prices were supported by a new OPEC+ plan was announced for seven members to further cut output to make up for producing more than agreed
levels. The plan will buffer all the supply increments that OPEC+ had previously announced and will take effect from next month. The US sanctioned a small Chinese refinery, a marked step-up of measures to curb supply from Iran. The Trump administration’s first
intervention in the Asian nation’s refining system is “a clear risk escalation for physical flows for the region,” RBC Capital Markets analysts wrote in a note. WTI -0.5%, Brent -0.6%, US Nat Gas -1.4%, RBOB -0.7%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar steadied ahead of a week filled with tariff risks and geopolitical jitters in Europe. The April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline forces
bears to trim exposure in the past few sessions. The yen eased as the pace of Japan’s consumer inflation was a little stronger than expected, backing the case for the Bank of Japan to stay on a gradual rate hike path. Japan’s core inflation slowed to 3% in
February. But underlying pressures lingered, with CPI excluding energy and fresh food rising at the fastest pace in about a year. The Norwegian Krone trades higher as traders assess chances for Norges Bank to again postpone the start of interest-rate cuts
next week. Sterling slips after the UK’s budget deficit has reached £132.2 billion in the first 11 months, exceeding the Office for Budget Responsibility’s prediction by £20.4 billion. US$ Index +0.05%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY +0.15%, AUDUSD -0.2%,
NZDUSD -0.05%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK -0.4%.

Bitcoin -0.6%, Ethereum -0.8%. This week, Ethereum network developers launched a new test network for a highly anticipated upgrade to Ethereum’s blockchain. It’s
expected to roll out across two stages starting in April or May, and is largely focused on fees, transaction processing, and data storage.

Coinbase  One crypto billionaire is betting a chunk of his fortune on building the world’s first commercial space station.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $9
• Adobe (ADBE) Raised to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Airbus (AIR FP) ADRs Raised to Hold at Berenberg; PT $38.80
• AutoZone (AZO) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $4,192
• Baylin Technologies (BYL CN) Raised to Speculative Buy at Paradigm Capital
• Celanese (CE) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $76
• Danaher (DHR) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $260
• Enterprise Group (E CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$2.10
• Host Hotels (HST) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $15
• Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• nVent Electric (NVT) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities
• PDD (PDD) ADRs Raised to Buy at China Merchants; PT $148
• Shake Shack (SHAK) Raised to Buy at CFRA
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $45
• Downgrades
• Altus Power (AMPS) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $5
• Beacon Roofing (BECN) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $124.35
• Charles River (CRL) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $170
• Dow (DOW) Cut to Sell at CFRA
• Elevation Oncology (ELEV) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT 70 cents
• Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $1
• Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $1.60
• FactSet (FDS) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $402
• FedEx (FDX) Cut to Sell at Loop Capital; PT $221
• Icon (ICLR) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $200
• Knight Therapeutics (GUD CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$6.50
• Optinose (OPTN) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $9
• PDD (PDD) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Nomura; PT $130
• RLJ Lodging (RLJ) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $10
• Tela Bio (TELA) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $2
• Valmont (VMI) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Initiations
• ACNB (ACNB) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $47
• Endeavour Silver (EDR CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
• Flowco Holdings (FLOC) Rated New Buy at Fearnley; PT $34
• GlycoMimetics (GLYC) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• IAC Inc (IAC) Resumed Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $60
• Kamada (KMDA IT) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $15
• Lakeland Financial (LKFN) Rated New Market Perform at Hovde Group
• NBT Bancorp (NBTB) Rated New Market Perform at Hovde Group; PT $50
• Sanofi (SAN FP) ADRs Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $65
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• United States Antimony Corp (UAMY) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $3

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke