Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, Services
PMI, Composite PMI; 1:45ET Fed’s Bostic speaks; 3:10ET Fed’s Barr speaks

Highlights and News:  

• US Trade Chief Set To Call Chinese Counterpart This Week
• Trump Plans His Tariff ‘Liberation Day’ With More Targeted Push
• RFK Jr. has announced plans to ban Big Pharma advertising on television
• US and Russian delegates started talks in Riyadh, resuming efforts to secure a ceasefire

World stocks are mostly higher, with gains led by US tech stocks on optimism from signs that US tariffs may be more targeted, though some Asian markets are lagging.
Investors were taking some comfort from indications that President Trump’s coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted than the barrage he has occasionally threatened. The administration is not planning separate, sectoral-specific tariffs to be unveiled
at the same event on April 2, officials said. Business activity in the euro area climbed to a seven-month peak, driven by a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in manufacturing, just before a significant surge in German spending. China will host two consecutive
high-level events this week, serving as “windows of opportunity” that provide important platforms for countries and enterprises in Asia and beyond. 

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are higher on reports that the scope of President Trump’s planned reciprocal tariffs will be narrower than initially expected. Trump is preparing to announce “reciprocal
tariffs” on April 2, targeting countries that have tariffs or barriers on US goods, but excluding some nations and blocs. Tesla added about 4% in premarket trading. Nvidia and Palantir Technologies rose amid news that Jack Ma’s Ant Group has developed AI techniques
that could cut costs by 20%, with results similar to those from Nvidia.  Morgan Stanley strategists are among those who see a turnaround on the horizon for US stocks. A dollar that’s down 3.8% from its January peak and signs of a bottoming out for Magnificent
Seven earnings could attract flows back to the US, they told clients.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +1.2%, Nasdaq +1.5%, Russell 2000 +1.3%, DJI +0.9%.

In pre-market trading, Azek (AZEK) jumps 19% after the Australian building-materials company James Hardie Industries agreed to buy the home-decking provider in a deal
that valued the business at $8.75 billion in cash and stock. FedEx (FDX) climbs nearly 1% after Jefferies turned bullish, confident in the parcel delivery company’s ability to continue to grow earnings regardless of top-line trends as it executes on its cost-cutting
plans. Lumentum Holdings (LITE) rises 4% after Raymond James upgraded the optical and photonic products company. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) falls about 1% as Goldman Sachs cuts its recommendation on the beleaguered chipmaker to sell amid AI server competition
and margin pressures. Viasat Inc. (VSAT) climbs 4% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the satellite communications company to buy. Morgan Stanley analysts said that Robinhood (HOOD +4.9%) will host their Gold Summit on March 26, calling the event a “key catalyst”
for the stock. Coherent Corp (COHR) is up 4.8% as Raymond James raised its recommendation to strong buy from outperform. Dun & Bradstreet Holdings Inc. (DNB) rises 3% after Clearlake Capital Group agreed to acquire the company.

Tesla is leading gains among the Magnificent Seven stocks, up over 4% ahead of the bell. TSLA has now declined for 9 consecutive weeks, its longest losing streak in
history.

Apple could see some upside momentum shift back above the January low.

European gauges are back in the green after erasing earlier gains as positive sentiment from potentially more measured US tariffs was short-lived. Basic resources outperform
on hopes of softer US curbs, while healthcare shares fell, led by Novo Nordisk after Intron Health double downgraded the firm on softer Ozempic sales outlook in the US. JPMorgan upgraded European miners on stronger China outlook and weaker dollar. The UK economy
showed signs of improvement, with PMI jumping to a six-month high of 52 in March. Meanwhile, France’s private sector business activity contracted less than expected and Germany’s private sector grew at the quickest pace in 10 months on hopes of a massive increase
in government spending. Stoxx 600 +0.2%, DAX +0.5%, CAC +0.25%, FTSE 100 +0.25%.  Basic Resources +2%, Aero & Defense +1.5%, Banks +1.2%, Technology +0.8%. Food & Bev -1%, Healthcare -0.9%, Real Estate -0.7%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher after erasing early losses, boosted by a surge in the region’s heavyweight markets of China and India. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
ended higher by 0.1%. Mainland China and Hong Kong benchmarks rose, boosted by a rotation from small-cap stocks to their larger peers as concerns rise over earnings. India outperformed amid early signs of a pickup in government spending and monetary easing.
Japan’s Topix fell for the first time in eight sessions, after soft domestic economic data dented sentiment. Indonesian stocks underperformed in the region as last week’s selloff resumes.  Shares of several Chinese telecom firms dropped, including Huawei and
ZTE, after the Financial Times reported the US is investigating on concerns that some of them are ignoring restrictions on their operations in the US. Sensex +1.4%, Hang Seng Index +0.9%, Vietnam +0.6%, CSI300 +0.5%, Thailand +0.3%, Singapore +0.25%, ASX 200
+0.1%. Nikkei 225 -0.2%, Kospi -0.4%, Taiwan -0.5%, Philippines -1.2%, Indonesia -1.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are higher as US stock futures advanced after a report that President Trump’s coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted. Intermediates
lead losses on the day. Treasury yields cheaper by 4bp to 6.5bp across the curve, with the 2s10s spread steeper by around 1bp on the day; US 10-year yield is around 4.30%, +~5bp. US auctions this week kick off Tuesday with $69 billion 2-year notes, followed
by $70 billion 5-year and $44 billion 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday.

METALS: 

Gold steadied after a report indicating that the next round of President Trump’s tariffs would be more measured than previously suggested. Bullion traded around $3,025
an ounce, not far below a record high reached on Thursday. President Trump’s tariff package is taking shape as a more targeted initiative than the broad, all-encompassing global approach he had previously contemplated, according to officials. Spot gold +0.1%,
Silver +0.1%, Copper +1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices edged higher as traders weighed the fallout of US tariffs and OPEC+ plans to revive production. Trump’s April 2 tariffs coincide with plans from OPEC+
to revive halted production by 138,000 barrels a day next month, the first in a series of hikes. Ukraine’s Defense Minister said talks with US officials in Riyadh on Sunday about ending Russia’s invasion “addressed key points including energy,” as Trump pushes
for a ceasefire. Delegates from the US and Russia are also holding separate talks today. Meanwhile, Iraq aims to boost oil and gas production capacity to over 6m b/d by 2029, as part of a five-year plan, Iraqi News Agency reports. WTI +0.75%, Brent +0.7%,
US Nat Gas -1.3%, RBOB +0.2%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar dropped against most major currencies after Trump aides indicated upcoming trade tariff measures will be more targeted than feared.
The yen bucked the trend, the only G-10 currency to fall against the dollar after Japan’s March PMI data came in unexpectedly low. The euro rose as Germany’s private sector grew at the quickest pace in 10 months on hopes that a massive increase in government
spending will outweigh any hit from US tariffs. Elsewhere, investors were keeping an eye on Turkey where the arrest of President Erdogan’s main political rival could spark nationwide protests. The lira fell 0.6% against the dollar, trading near record lows.
US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.25%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD +0.4%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.25%, USDSEK -0.3%.

Bitcoin +3%, Ethereum +3%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alnylam (ALNY) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $328
• Boeing (BA) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $204
• Choice Hotels (CHH) Raised to Neutral at Redburn; PT $132
• Coherent Corp (COHR) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $91
• FedEx (FDX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $275
• Lumentum (LITE) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $82
• Mativ (MATV) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $10
• NOV Inc (NOV) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $22
• Nucor (NUE) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $160
• Ovintiv (OVV) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $57
• Peyto Exploration (PEY CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO
• Pinterest (PINS) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $40
• Steel Dynamics (STLD) Raised to Buy at UBS
• Valley National (VLY) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $11
• Viasat (VSAT) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $15
• Wyndham Hotels (WH) Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT $115
• Downgrades
• AZEK (AZEK) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $58
• Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $53
• Civitas Resources Inc (CIVI) Cut to Market Perform at BMO
• Ecolab (ECL) Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT $270
• Elevation Oncology (ELEV) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $1
• Embraer (EMBR3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Getty Images (GETY) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $2.45
• Lennar (LEN) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $131
• Liberty Energy (LBRT) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $19
• Lockheed (LMT) Cut to Hold at Melius
• New Oriental Education (EDU) ADRs Cut to Hold at China Renaissance
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $32
• Travelers (TRV) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $270
• Vesta (VESTA* MM) ADRs Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $21
• Initiations
• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Rated New Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• BellRing Brands (BRBR) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $84
• Campbell’s (CPB) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $40
• Chewy (CHWY) Rated New Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Conagra (CAG) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $27
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $82
• General Mills (GIS) Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $53
• Global Net Lease (GNL) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $10
• Herc Holdings (HRI) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $165
• Hershey (HSY) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $183
• J M Smucker (SJM) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $123
• Jabil (JBL) Rated New Hold at KGI Securities; PT $155
• Kenvue (KVUE) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI
• Kraft Heinz (KHC) Reinstated Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $29
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $97
• Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $330
• Mondelez (MDLZ) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $69
• Netstreit (NTST) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $18
• Quince Therapeutics Inc (QNCX) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer
• Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush
• Sea Ltd (SE) ADRs Rated New Buy at Arete; PT $151
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Vital Farms (VITL) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $40
• WK Kellogg (KLG) Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $18

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke