Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity; 8:40ET Fed’s Kugler speaks;  9:00ET
FHFA House Price Index; 9:05ET Fed’s Williams speaks; 10:00ET New Home Sales, Building Permits, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg Index; 1:00ET $69 billion 2-year note auction

Highlights and News:  

• Fed’s Bostic Now Sees Just One Rate Cut This Year Due to Tariffs
• Trump Considers Two-Step Tariff Regime on April 2; Could Apply up to 50% Tariff – FT
• One of the founders of Hamas, Jaber Amar “Abu Ali,” has been eliminated in an IDF strike in Gaza
• Alibaba’s Tsai Warns of AI Data Center Bubble
• Tesla’s European Sales Drop 40% in February
  
• Ukraine unconditionally supports the idea of a full ceasefire with Russia

World stocks moved cautiously higher as markets were somewhat unnerved by a fresh tariff barrage from Trump, who threatened a 25% levy on any nation purchasing crude
from Venezuela. Trump also said automobile tariffs are coming soon even as he indicated that not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks. Trump said his tariff roll-out next Wednesday would focus on “reciprocal
duties” with rates tailored to each country based on the tariffs and trade barriers they impose on US goods. German business morale rose in March, an Ifo survey showed today, as companies expect a recovery after two years of contraction in Europe’s largest
economy. European policymakers are rushing to offer concessions and other defensive responses to White House demands in the final week before President Trump stages trade “Liberation Day” on April 2. European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic is set to meet
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer today.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures waver after one of the best days for the US market this year, with momentum sapped by President Trump’s latest tariff threats and the likelihood of fewer interest-rate
cuts than currently priced. The chief strategist at UBS Investment Bank predicts the S&P 500 will drop 8% due to a “visibly tiring” US consumer. Trump stated that he will reveal tariffs on imported automobiles in the near future and suggested that certain
countries will be exempt from the “reciprocal” tariffs starting next week. Tesla’s European car sales plummeted 40% in February, marking the 10th drop in the past year. The figures contrast with a 31% rise in industrywide EV registrations. Alibaba’s Joe Tsai
warned of a potential bubble in datacenter construction, singling out US spending, arguing that the buildout pace may outstrip initial demand for AI services.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI +0.15%.

In pre-market trading, Carvana (CVNA) rises 4% after Morgan Stanley raised the used-car retailer to overweight. Cloudflare (NET) climbs 6% as BofA double-upgrades the
software company to buy on improving fundamentals, saying it’s set to be an “AI winner.” Faraday Future (FFAI) climbs 13% after the mobility ecosystem company secured $41m in new cash financing commitments. KB Home (KBH) falls 9% after the homebuilder cut
its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance amid a soft start to the spring selling season. Ally Financial (ALLY) declines 2% after BTIG downgraded the auto-lender to sell. McCormick (MKC) slips 3% as the maker of spices posted 1Q profit that missed expectations. Mobileye
Global (MBLY) gains 9% after Volkswagen Group said it is working with the maker of software and hardware technologies for automobiles to enhance driver assistance in future MQB vehicles. Oklo (OKLO) slides 7% after the nuclear fission reactors firm reported
disappointing quarterly results. Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD) rises 3% after the world’s largest pork producer said it expects 2025 sales growth in the “low-to-mid-single-digit percent range”. Trump Media (DJT) jumps 7% after signing a non-binding agreement
to partner with Crypto.com for a series of ETFs through its Truth.Fi brand. UniFirst (UNF) drops 10% after Cintas (CTAS) terminated discussions to acquire the workplace uniform rental company.

European gauges are broadly higher following a strong overnight rally on Wall Street on hopes of narrower-than-feared US tariffs. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.6%,
snapping a three-day losing streak. Banks outperform after JPMorgan analysts raised their price targets on lenders. ahead of the government’s spring statement on Wednesday. Shell Plc advanced ~2% as it said it would boost investor returns through the end of
this decade by reinforcing its position as the world’s top trader of liquefied natural gas. Focus will turn to the corporate earnings season in the next month, with analyst upgrades having broadly outnumbered downgrades in Europe this year. Stoxx 600 +1%,
DAX +1.3%, CAC +1.4%, FTSE 100 +0.75%. Banks +1.75%, Autos +1.5%, Insurance +1.4%, Energy +1.4%. Retail -0.3%. 

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower, driven by selloff in Hong Kong as investors remain cautious about forthcoming US tariffs on China.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
declined 0.3%, reversing early gains, with Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest drags. Taiwan’s tech-heavy market tracked gains in US peers, while Japan’s gauges closed higher amid optimism over possible breaks from President Trump’s levies. Hong Kong underperformed,
weighed down by a drop in Xiaomi after its $5.5 billion share sale. Australian stocks fluctuated ahead of the nation’s annual budget announcement. Indian stocks were little changed after Monday’s rally. Shares of Indian drug makers fall after Trump said that
tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs would come in “the very near future.”  Hang Seng Index -2.3%, Kospi -0.6%, Philippines -0.5%, Thailand -0.4%, CSI 300 -0.05%. Sensex +0.05%, ASX 200 +0.05%, Vietnam +0.1%, Topix +0.2%, Singapore +0.5%, Taiwan +0.75%, Indonesia
+1.2%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are lower, extending Monday’s aggressive selloff as Fed rate-cut pricing continues to fade. Fed President Raphael Bostic now sees one interest-rate cut
as likely this year, rather than two, due to tariff hikes impeding progress on disinflation. Bostic now sees price growth returning to the Fed’s 2% goal at some point in early 2027. Auction cycle begins with $69 billion 2-year note sale, and corporate new-issue
slate has begun to build following Monday’s nearly $25b haul. Treasury yields are 1bp-3bp cheaper across maturities with the curve slightly steeper; 10-year at around 4.36%. 

METALS: 

Gold edges higher, as bullion-backed exchange-traded funds continued to see significant inflows, adding the most in more than three years on Monday. Copper extended
gains as traders weighed the latest comments from President Trump on his levy agenda, where he indicated some nations could receive breaks from “reciprocal” tariffs next week. Investors now await US Personal Consumption Expenditures data, due on Friday, the
Fed’s preferred inflation measure, for hints on further policy moves. Spot gold +0.2%, Silver +1.2%, Copper +1.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices edge higher for a fifth day of gains on concerns global supply will tighten after the US announced tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan crude. Trump
threatened to impose “secondary tariffs” on countries that buy oil from Venezuela, aiming to choke off its oil trade with other nations. The move is seen as targeting countries like China, which is the main actor in the black market for Venezuelan oil. The
Trump administration also on Monday extended a deadline to May 27 for US producer Chevron to wind down operations in Venezuela. Meanwhile, OPEC+ will likely stick to its plan to raise oil output for a second consecutive month in May, sources told Reuters.
WTI +0.7%, Brent +0.7%, US Nat Gas +0.8%, RBOB +0.6%.   

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar slips after touching a three-week high after Trump said not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries
may get breaks. The yen is higher after minutes of the BOJ’s January meeting released today showed policymakers discussed the pace of raising interest rates. Investors expect the Bank of Japan to go slow on monetary tightening that could bolster the yen. The
Australian dollar seemed to catch support from optimism about Trump’s tariff flexibility. Australia’s government launched fresh tax cuts today and announced other cost-of-living relief in a major push to win back disgruntled voters. Sterling edged higher as
traders looked towards Wednesday’s spring statement in which Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to cut government spending to meet fiscal rules. The Indonesian rupiah touched its weakest level since the Asian Financial Crisis as fears mounted over
the nation’s fiscal trajectory. The central bank acted to defend the currency.   US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD +0.5%, NZDUSD +0.3%, USDNOK -0.55%, USDCAD -0.2%, USDSEK -1.0%.

Bitcoin -0.7%, Ethereum -0.9%. BlackRock is launching a Bitcoin exchanged-traded product in Europe, its first crypto-linked ETP outside of North America.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Carvana (CVNA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $280
• Cloudflare (NET) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $160
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $431
• Empire State Realty (ESRT) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $10
• HealthEquity (HQY) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $115
• Marsh McLennan (MMC) Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT $281
• MINISO (MNSO) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $22
• Nova (NVMI) Raised to Buy at Bank Leumi; PT $260
• NXP Semi (NXPI) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $273.90
• Pentair (PNR) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $114
• Downgrades
• Akoya Biosciences (AKYA) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $1.80
• Ally Financial (ALLY) Cut to Sell at BTIG; PT $30
• Arthur J Gallagher (AJG) Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT $352
• AZEK (AZEK) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $51.50
• Brown & Brown (BRO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $128
• Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $9.15
• Cut to Underweight at Huber Research Partners
• EOG Resources (EOG) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $140
• L’Oreal (OR FP) ADRs Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $83.20
• Lensar (LNSR) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Opthea (OPT AU) ADRs Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $1
• ADRs Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $1
• Initiations
• Assembly Bio (ASMB) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $31
• Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $23
• Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $36
• Clearway Energy (CWEN/A) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $38
• Coreweave (CRWV) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson
• Coty (COTY) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $7.50
• Crinetics Pharma (CRNX) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $60
• Doman Building Materials (DBM CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$9.50
• dynaCERT (DYA CN) Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 75 Canadian cents
• Immunic Inc (IMUX) Rated New Outperform at William Blair; PT $6.80
• NorthIsle Copper & Gold (NCX CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Paradigm Capital; PT C$1.45
• OneMain (OMF) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $58
• Palvella Therapeutics In (PVLA) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $45

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke