Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on March 27, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET GDP, Personal Consumption, Core PCE Price Index QoQ, Advance Goods Trade Balance,
Wholesale Inventories, Retail Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims; 10:00ET Pending Home Sales; 11:00ET KC Fed Mfg. Activity; 1:00ET 7-year note auction; 4:30ET Fed’s Collins speaks, Fed’s Barkin speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump said he’d impose tariffs “far larger than currently planned” on Canada and the EU if they work together against the US
  • Trump: Reciprocal tariffs will be imposed on all nations, though rates may be lower than expected
  • China’s energy rules for advanced chips could dent Nvidia’s sales – FT
  • Sweden announces largest military buildup since Cold War – raising defense spending to 3.5% GDP
  • German carmaker BMW urged the EU and US to strike a deal to prevent a spiraling trade conflict
  • UK is holding urgent talks with the US government in a bid to avoid being hit by extra tariffs

 

World stock markets declined as the US moved forward with steep tariffs on automakers and hinted at broader trade restrictions, heightening investor worries about
the impact on worldwide economic growth. Trump said that larger tariffs could be placed on the European Union and Canada if they both work together “to do economic harm to the USA.”  Trump also said planned reciprocal tariffs on all countries will be “lenient”.
On China, he said he may give Beijing some reduction in tariffs to get a deal done to sell TikTok. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba said all options were on the table in response. Canada said it could impose retaliatory duties, while the EU expressed regret but
was seeking negotiated solutions. Meanwhile, Russian drones attacked Ukraine’s major cities overnight as President Zelenskiy prepared to join European leaders for a meeting in Paris aimed at reinforcing Kyiv’s position in any peace settlement. 

 

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures recouped some of their earlier losses as investors weighed the latest tariff-related news from President Trump. There already were expectations of such a tariff move,
with the tech-heavy Nasdaq slumping more than 2% on Wednesday. Reciprocal tariffs will be imposed on all nations, Trump said, though rates may be lower than expected. Following the tariff announcement, US automakers fell sharply in post-market trading, with
GM down 6% and Ford ~5%. Tesla inched higher on speculation its US factories will help insulate it from tariffs. Nvidia fell after the Financial Times reported that China’s energy rules for advanced chips could dent the company’s sales. OpenAI is said to be
close to a SoftBank-led $40 billion funding deal that would double its valuation to $300 billion.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Automaker stocks fall after President Trump hit auto imports with a 25% tariff starting next week. General Motors (GM) -6%, Ford (F) -0.7%, Stellantis’s
US-listed shares (STLA) -1.6%, TSLA +0.8%. 3D Systems (DDD) falls 5% after the 3D-printing company issued annual forecasts for revenue and adjusted gross margin that trailed expectations. AMD (AMD) slips 3% after Jefferies downgraded the chipmaker to hold.
Coursera (COUR) falls 2.2% after Bank of America resumed coverage of the online educational firm with an underperform rating. GameStop (GME) drops 6% as the company seeks to sell $1.3 billion of convertible bonds to fund Bitcoin purchases. Jefferies (JEF)
slips 5% after fiscal first-quarter earnings declined amid a drop in investment-banking and capital-markets revenue. MicroVision (MVIS) falls 5% after the electronics components company reported fourth-quarter revenue that trailed estimates. Petco Health and
Wellness (WOOF) gains 6% after the retailer provided a 1Q forecast for adj. Ebitda that topped expectations. Soleno (SLNO) jumps 36% after the biotech won US FDA approval for its Vykat extended-release tablets. Verint (VRNT) drops 12% after the customer-service
software firm reported adjusted revenue and profits for the fourth quarter that fell short.

European gauges fell sharply on the open but have recovered some. The European Union is preparing for a massive round of tariffs set to target the bloc as soon as next
week. Among its retaliatory options is considering to deploy one of EU’s most powerful trade-policy tools, the so-called anti-coercion instrument. The tariff drama is casting doubt over European equities’ recent outperformance against US peers, with some managers
expecting US stocks to soon regain their edge. German carmaker BMW urged the EU and US to strike a deal to prevent a spiraling trade conflict. Stoxx 600 -0.6%, DAX -0.8%, CAC -0.5%, FTSE 100 -0.6%. Autos -1.9%, Basic Resources -1.3%, Construction -1.3%. Retail
+1.1%, Utilities +0.8%.

Shares in Asia were mixed with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index ending lower by 0.1%. TSMC was the biggest drag on the gauge after a report that China’s energy rules for
advanced chips could dent Nvidia’s sales. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan underperformed, while Chinese stocks rallied before ending the day with modest gains. Fund managers at Franklin Templeton and HSBC Global Private Banking said they will use any
market volatility as a chance to add more Chinese stocks. Indian stocks rose ahead of the expiry of monthly derivative contracts. Kospi -1.4%, Taiwan -1.4%, Nikkei 225 -0.6%, Philippines -0.4%, ASX 200 -0.4%, Thailand -0.2%, Vietnam -0.2%. Topix +0.1%, CSI
300 +0.3%, Hang Seng Index +0.4%, Sensex +0.4%, Singapore +0.4%, Indonesia +0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are near session lows in early US trading with the yield curve steeper, driving 5s30s spread past 62bp to the widest level since 2022.  10-year yields
edged three basis points higher to 4.38% on concerns that trade tariffs could fuel inflation, a concern echoed by the Fed’s Alberto Musalem on Wednesday. 2-year yield is flat. Barclays said it favors fixed income investments over equities for the first time
in “several quarters.”  Euro-area bond yields slipped as expectations grew that the central bank will cut interest rates to cushion the fallout from trade-related shocks.  Focal points of US session include $44 billion 7-year note auction and economic data
slate including weekly jobless claims and final 4Q GDP revision.   

 

METALS: 

Gold climbed after Trump announced new tariffs on auto imports starting next week, escalating global trade tensions that have been driving safe-haven demand for gold.
Spot gold is hovering above $3,050 an ounce, just below its all-time high. Goldman Sachs on Wednesday raised its year end-2025 gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce from $3,100, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and sustained central bank demand.
Spot gold +1%, Silver +1.2%, Copper -0.3%.

 

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices steadied after rising ~1% on Wednesday, as markets assessed new US tariffs, while concerns about global supply kept prices near one-month highs. India’s
Reliance Industries, operator of the world’s biggest refining complex, will halt Venezuelan oil imports following Tuesday’s tariff announcement on Venezuelan crude, sources said.  WTI -0.1%, Brent -0.1%, US Nat Gas -1.5%, RBOB +0.5%. 

 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers and front-end volatility climbed as the US pushed ahead with tariffs on automakers. Canadian
dollar recoups part of its early slide, while Mexican peso remains better offered. Japanese PM Ishiba said he won’t rule out taking countermeasures against the 25% tariff on US car imports. The yen weakens as the new levies greatly reduce the likelihood of
the BOJ raising rates on May 1, central bank watchers said. The euro snaps a six-day losing streak against the dollar. Traders add to ECB easing bets, see 80% chance of an April cut. France’s 2024 budget deficit was narrower than expected, giving the government
some breathing room as it struggles to lower its debt load. US$ Index -0.25%, GBPUSD +0.4%, EURUSD +0.35%, USDJPY +0.2%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD +0.3%, USDNOK -0.4%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDMXN +0.6%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.3%, Ethereum +0.4%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Check Point Software (CHKP) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $260
    • Chemours (CC) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $19
    • Equinix (EQIX) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $978
    • Liberty Energy (LBRT) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $575
    • Twilio (TWLO) Raised to Buy at CFRA; PT $125
  • Downgrades
    • AMD (AMD) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $120
    • CarGurus (CARG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $34
    • Frontline PLC (FRO) Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT $12.49
    • Imperial Oil (IMO CN) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT C$90
    • Lightspeed Commerce Inc (LSPD CN) Cut to Sector Perform at ATB Capital
    • Lockheed (LMT) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $480
    • Omega Healthcare (OHI) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $39
    • OPENLANE Inc (KAR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $20
    • PayPal (PYPL) Cut to Neutral at Arete; PT $81
    • Phillips 66 (PSX) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $132
    • TrueCar (TRUE) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
  • Initiations
    • Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK) ADRs Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $27
    • Aurora Innovation (AUR) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $15
    • Badger Meter (BMI) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $251
    • Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $53
    • Canopy Growth (WEED CN) Rated New Neutral at Zuanic
    • Carnival (CCL) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $26
    • Coursera (COUR) Resumed Underperform at BofA; PT $7
    • HBT Financial (HBT) Rated New Market Perform at Hovde Group; PT $24.50
    • Mereo Biopharma (MREO) ADRs Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $7
    • Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $21
    • Ouster (OUST) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $16
    • Quinsam Opportunities I (VHI CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
    • RenovoRx (RNXT) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $3
    • Roku (ROKU) Resumed Buy at BofA; PT $100
    • Roper (ROP) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $685
    • Royal Caribbean (RCL) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $262
    • Sable Offshore (SOC) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $30
    • Thryv Holdings Inc (THRY) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $17
    • Viking Holdings (VIK) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $47

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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