Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on March 28, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Price Index, Core PCE; 10:00ET U. of Mich.
Sentiment; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Services Activity; 12:15ET Fed’s Barr speaks; 3:45ET Fed’s Bostic speaks

US FEB. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.8% Y/Y; EST. +2.7%.

Highlights and News:  

  • US FEB. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.4% M/M
  • CARNEY, TRUMP CALL TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING
  • PUTIN PROPOSES UN-LED TRANSITIONAL ADMINISTRATION IN UKRAINE
  • 7.7-Magnitude Quake Hits Myanmar, triggering evacuations in Thailand and Vietnam
  • Musk says DOGE can cut $1 trillion in government spending by the end of May
  • Israel Strikes Beirut Suburb in First Since Ceasefire
  • Chicago Bulls pull off a jaw-dropping comeback by scoring nine points in the very last 10 seconds

 

Global stock markets declined as President Trump’s most recent tariff actions heightened concerns about a full-scale trade war. Tariffs on auto imports due to kick
in next week alongside plans for much broader global levies continued to draw fierce criticism from both countries and companies. Trump indicated the measures on ‘liberation day’ may not be the like-for-like levies he has been pledging to impose. Chinese President
Xi Jinping urged global business leaders to push back against protectionism and promoted China as a reliable partner. Xi touted China’s stability and promised to improve market access and address challenges faced by foreign investors. European stocks are headed
for their biggest quarterly outperformance versus the US on record. Putin proposed placing Ukraine under UN-led temporary rule for a transitional period before the country hosts elections.  

 

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures edged lower as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric. Personal Consumption Expenditures data for February is expected to show a
rebound in consumer outlays, with annual core PCE prices rising to 2.7%. Fed President Susan Collins said tariffs will likely cause price pressures in the near term, but it was unclear how long that would last. Money markets have added to bets this week on
more Federal Reserve cuts and are now split on between two and three reductions by year-end. The EU is set to issue fines for Meta and Apple toward the end of next week. Sources said the fines are expected to be relatively modest.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.05%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Argan Inc. (AGX) climbs 12% after the builder of power plants posted 4Q revenue that climbed 41% from the year-ago period. Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
rises 4% after a Bank of America analyst upgraded the drug developer to buy. CureVac (CVAC) jumps 12% after the biotech firm said the European Patent Office had upheld the mRNA patent at the center of its legal battle with BioNTech. Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP)
gains 7% after BMO raised the office REIT to outperform. Lululemon (LULU) tumbles 12% after the activewear maker’s annual forecasts for sales and profit disappointed. Nio Inc. ADRs (NIO) falls about 2% as the Chinese electric vehicle maker’s upsized share
sale plan raised investor concern about dilution. Oxford Industries (OXM) declines 12% after the owner of Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer gave a disappointing forecast for the current fiscal quarter. Rocket Lab (RKLB) rises 9% after the space company was selected
by the US Space Force for a $5.6 billion program. The Metals Company (TMC) gains 15% after the seabed mining company asked the Trump administration for approval to harvest the ocean floor for critical metals in international waters. US Steel (X) gains 5% after
Semafor reported that the company is in active talks with Nippon Steel about a deal that would preserve their proposed merger. WR Berkley (WRB) climbs 5% after Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance agreed to buy 15% of outstanding shares in the US insurer.

European gauges are mostly lower and set for their third week of losses this month as investors braced for US tariff announcements next week. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index
stays in the red in choppy trading. Sectors considered bond proxies, such as real estate and utilities, outperformed as German bunds held onto gains after inflation in France and Spain undershot expectations, supporting calls for more interest-rate cuts by
the ECB. Banks lead losses but have been the standout winner this quarter with a 26% advance as investors are counting on more strong earnings, share buybacks and M&A to drive gains.  Ubisoft Entertainment shares jumped as much as 12% after the video-game
maker said it would carve out a unit, with Tencent Holdings set to invest €1.16 billion for a stake in it. Sports apparel makers Adidas AG and Puma SE slid after competitor Lululemon’s outlook noted concerns about consumer spending. UK retail and grocery stocks
outperformed following a surprise increase in sales data.  Stoxx 600 -0.15%, DAX -0.4%, CAC -0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.25%. Banks -1.2%, Aero & Defense -0.9%, Travel & Leisure -0.9%, Energy -0.8%, Technology -0.7%, Basic Resources -0.7%.  Real Estate +1.5%, Utilities
+1.3%, Telecom +1.0%. 

Shares in Asia fell as investors awaited clarity on Trump’s tariff plans for China. Trading was halted in Thailand following an earthquake. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
fell 1%, with most regional markets in the red. South Korean and Japanese stocks led the selloff, as ex-dividend trading exacerbated the impact of the hit to sentiment from US taxes on imports.  More than 1,200 companies on the Topix traded without rights
to the next dividend, shaving 30 points off the index. Nippon Steel shares fell after Semafor reported it’s considering investing up to $7 billion in US Steel if its bid is approved. Australian monetary policy decision will be in focus next week along with
inflation data from several Asian nations. Indonesian markets are closed for holidays through April 7. Topix -2.1%, Kospi -1.9%, Taiwan -1.6%, Thailand -1%, Hang Seng Index -0.6%, Vietnam -0.5%, CSI 300 -0.4%, Sensex -0.25%. Philippines +0.1%, ASX 200 +0.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold gains in early US session led by long-end tenors with yields lower by about 4bp. The yield on 10-year Treasuries slips 3bps to 4.32% while the curve
flattens 1.5bps.  Core European bond markets lead after Spanish and French CPIs rose less than estimated, prompting traders to price in more easing by ECB. Focal point of US session is February personal income and spending data, which incorporates PCE price
index, the inflation gauge targeted by the Fed.

 

METALS: 

Safe-haven gold notched another record high as jitters over US trade policy continued to fuel demand for the precious metal.  Gold is up more than 17% in the first
quarter of the year, heading for its best quarterly performance since 1986. The metal has now added +$7 trillion of market cap over the last 12 months. All eyes are on the US core personal consumption expenditures data this morning. Spot gold +0.6%, Silver
+0.05%, Copper is flat.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices fluctuate as it heads for a third weekly advance as traders assessed a tightening of crude supplies along with new US tariffs and their expected effect
on the global economy. Oil producers are facing geological constraints on production increases as the nation’s leading oil field in the Permian basin matures, yielding more water and gas and less oil – and may be nearing peak output. Shale executives expect
oil output growth from the Permian to slow by around 25% this year. WTI ~flat, Brent -0.05%, US Nat Gas -1.8%, RBOB -0.25%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar rose versus all Group-of-10 peers except the yen amid month-end flows and ahead of a key inflation report. The euro slipped as German
consumer confidence data highlighted the ongoing uncertainties in Europe’s largest economy. Germany’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.3% this month, the highest since September 2020. The yen firmed as data showed core consumer inflation in Tokyo had
accelerated in March, keeping the Bank of Japan on track for further interest rate hikes. UK retail sales rose 1% in February, versus expectations for a 0.4% decline. Sterling eased versus the dollar. US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.15%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY -0.15%,
AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF +0.15%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.6%.

 

 

Bitcoin -2.4%, Ethereum -5.3%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $195
    • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • Camden Property (CPT) Raised to Buy at Citi
    • Check Point Software (CHKP) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $275
    • Dollarama (DOL CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$166
    • Ferrari (RACE) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $523.32
    • Hudson Pacific (HPP) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $5
    • Tanger Inc (SKT) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $40
    • Varonis Systems (VRNS) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $50
  • Downgrades
    • Bausch + Lomb (BLCO CN) Bausch + Lomb Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT C$21.47
    • DoubleVerify (DV) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $14
    • Enghouse (ENGH CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$30
    • Equillium (EQ) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $1
    • Federal Realty (FRT) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $106
    • Integral Ad Science (IAS) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $9
    • Kilroy (KRC) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $36
    • KLA Corp (KLAC) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $725
    • Lululemon (LULU) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Oxford Industries (OXM) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • PDD (PDD) ADRs Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management; PT $130
    • Third Harmonic Bio (THRD) Cut to Neutral at Stifel; PT $5
  • Initiations
    • American Public (APEI) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $28
    • AppLovin (APP) Rated New Outperform at FBN; PT $385
    • Boeing (BA) Rated New Neutral at KGI Securities; PT $191
    • Instacart (CART) Rated New Sector Perform at FBN; PT $44
    • Lincoln Educational (LINC) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $23
    • Lineage (LINE) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $64
    • Lumine Group (LMN CN) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT C$50
    • Merit Medical (MMSI) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $120
    • Roblox (RBLX) Rated New Sector Perform at FBN; PT $65
    • Roku (ROKU) Rated New Outperform at FBN; PT $93
    • South Bow (SOBO CN) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT C$40.08
    • Spotify (SPOT) Rated New Sector Perform at FBN; PT $645
    • Super Group SGHC (SGHC) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $9
    • Topicus (TOI CN) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT C$170
    • Universal Technical Institute (UTI) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $31
    • Walmart (WMT) Rated New Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $102
    • Warner Music (WMG) Rated New Sector Perform at FBN; PT $35
    • Zillow (ZG) Rated New Market Perform at KBW; PT $80

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed